The Rams will try to stop UMass’ leading scorer, Gary Forbes, from soaring to the hoop tonight. URI is aiming to get back on the winning track and land in the NCAA Tournament.

AP / Nancy Palmieri

SOUTH KINGSTOWN — All of a sudden, the University of Rhode Island’s basketball season has become much more complicated.

For the first 22 games, everything went smoothly for the Rams. As it won 19 of its first 22 contests, the biggest debate around the team was whether it could climb back into the Top 25, where it had been for four weeks earlier in the season.

Four games later, everything has changed.

Three of the last four games have been losses — by two points at Massachusetts, three at Temple in overtime and by four against Xavier. Now, as the team prepares to host a rematch with UMass tonight at the Ryan Center, the picture is very different.

Are the Rams still in the hunt for the NCAA Tournament?

What do they need to do to get into the tournament?

Can they earn a first-round bye in the Atlantic 10 Tournament?

How many wins is the team going to need by Selection Sunday?

Everything in the A-10 has been so crazy, so unpredictable, that it could be foolhardy to look too far ahead. The teams that will meet tonight in Kingston are a perfect example.

When URI and UMass met two weeks ago at the Mullins Center, both were in the top 25 in the RPI ratings, and both looked to be in great position. But that night was the start of URI’s problems, the first of the three recent losses. UMass did not have long to relish the exciting victory over the Rams. It followed that game with an overtime loss at Temple and then an even more painful home loss to Fordham before getting back on the winning track with a home victory over Saint Louis.

The Minutemen are 16-9 overall and 5-6 in the conference. Their task seems pretty clear. They probably have to run the table to be in the running for a first-round bye in the A-10 tourney and be in a position to think about NCAA Tournament possibilities at the end of the regular season.

Even with its recent losses, URI is in a stronger position. The Rams are still 29th in the RPI, a spot that in most years earns a team an NCAA invitation.

It is possible that URI will be favored in all five remaining games, although not by much in most. If the Rams (20-6, 6-5) win all of their remaining regular-season games, they will be in great position for an NCAA berth. That would make them 25-6 going into the A-10 tourney. They would finish no worse than in a tie for second, and would probably have tie-breakers in their favor with everyone except Temple to be the second seed.

Even one victory, in the quarterfinals in Atlantic City, would probably punch URI’s ticket to The Dance. A trip to the finals would clinch it.

The complications jump in if the Rams lose another game, or two, or three, in the regular season. A 4-1 finish would probably still keep the team in good position going to the A-10 tourney, although nothing would be guaranteed. That would mean 24 wins and a sure first-round bye in Atlantic City.

A 3-2 finish would probably put the Rams precariously on the bubble going into the A-10 tourney. That would mean a 9-7 record in the conference. In that case, the team would have to at least get to the semis, and probably to the final, in Atlantic City. And even that would be questionable.

Anything worse than a 3-2 finish and URI would be in big trouble. It would probably have to win the A-10 tourney to be in a position for the school’s first NCAA bid since 1999.

What makes the issue more difficult to figure out is the overall zaniness of the A-10. While league members have been boasting all season, with reason, about the conference’s overall strength (seventh in the RPI ratings), the upsets in the last six weeks could take a toll. Saint Joseph’s, which visits the Ryan Center on Sunday, has lost three of its last four. Dayton, like UMass, already has six conference losses.

Who would have thought Temple and Richmond would be in position for top-four finishes and first-round byes? If the season ended yesterday, Richmond would have been the third seed and Temple fourth. URI would have had to settle for fifth — and a first-round game against Fordham, which would have been the 12th seed.

When the conference season began, A-10 officials were lobbying for four berths in the NCAA Tournament, perhaps even a fifth. But with everyone knocking each other off , only Xavier is set heading into the final 16 days.

Jim Baron, the URI coach, has been through it before. He refuses to get into any debates about whether tonight’s game, and the four after that, are must victories.

“The only thing we must do,” he responded, “is get better.”

His players, who have not been through it before, did not dodge the issue as well as the coach.

“These are must games,” Rhody co-captain Will Daniels said when asked the same question.

Everyone begins getting a clearer picture tonight. A limited number of tickets were available as of late yesterday afternoon. The fourth sellout of the season is likely.

pkenyon@projo.com