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Jim Donaldson

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jim donaldson

Big Brown favored, but I'll bet on Icabad Crane

08:54 AM EDT on Saturday, May 17, 2008

I didn’t bet on Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, and I’m not going to bet on him in the Preakness, either.

That said, I’m not so foolish as to bet against him.

While this afternoon’s second leg of thoroughbred racing’s venerable, and venerated, Triple Crown shapes up as an eminently watchable race, it is not really a bettable one.

Not with the undefeated — and almost unchallenged — Big Brown listed as an overwhelming 1-2 favorite in the morning line, and most likely to go off at even lower odds.

I was willing to take a financial stand against him in the Derby two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Even though I had been impressed with his dominating performance in the Florida Derby in his previous outing — as anyone who saw that race could not fail to be — I wasn’t convinced that he would win the Run for the Roses, especially as the post-time favorite at odds of slightly less than 5-2.

To begin with, he was starting on the far outside, in post position 20, where it was almost easier for his jockey, Kent Desormeaux, to get a mint julep from the concession stand than get his horse over to the rail, where he could save ground on the mile-and-a-quarter trip. And there was plenty of speed just to his inside, theoretically making the task more difficult.

The last time a horse had won the Derby from post position 20 was in 1929, when Clyde Van Dusen got the job done. It should also be noted that ol’ Clyde didn’t come out of a starting gate to do it, either. They weren’t in use at Churchill back then.

But that event of yesteryear seemed like only yesterday compared with the last time a horse with only three career starts had won the Derby.

Plagued by foot problems — he has a tendency to develop painful quarter cracks in his hooves — Big Brown raced just once as a 2-year-old. And that was on grass, last summer at Saratoga. His only start prior to the Florida Derby was also supposed to be on turf, but was switched to dirt, resulting in his beating a small, undistinguished field of only five.

Granted, Big Brown had won his three starts by a combined 29 lengths, but the last horse to have run only three races before winning the Derby was Regret, way back in 1915, a mere 93 years ago.

That said, Big Brown proved much the best on Derby Day, overcoming those precedents, as well as 19 outclassed rivals, in powering to an impressive, 4 3/4-length victory.

So dominating was his performance that the connections of only one of the horses that ran against him at Churchill Downs was willing to challenge him again at Pimlico, where the turns are tighter, and the race is slightly shorter — a mile and three-sixteenths — and Big Brown’s speed should prove even more advantageous.

That one horse, by the way, is Gallego, who finished 17th in Kentucky, a whopping 36 3/4 lengths behind.

While there are 10 other “new shooters” willing to take a shot at Big Brown this afternoon in the Preakness, it’s only stating the obvious to say that if those horses were really good, they’d have been in the Kentucky Derby — the one race, more than any other, that every owner, trainer and jockey wants to win.

Five of those 10 have never beaten winners, their only victory coming against maidens (horses that have yet to win a race.) As for the others, none is overly impressive.

Derby Trial winner Macho Again is 0-for-3 going a mile or longer. Hey Byrn, winner of the Grade III Holy Bull last month at Gulfstream Park, was beaten 15 lengths by Big Brown in the Florida Derby. Yankee Bravo ships in from southern California, but he was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby in last start, behind Colonel John and Bob Black Jack — both soundly beaten by Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.

Top trainer Todd Pletcher had a legitimate threat in Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar, but he scratched the horse yesterday because of a bruise in his left front foot. New York-bred Giant Moon was 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old versus state-breds, but finished fourth in his last start, the Wood Memorial last month at Aqueduct.

A possible upsetter, at a big price, is Icabad Crane. Trained by the highly capable Graham Motion, the colt has a win over the track, taking the $100,000 Federico Tesio Stakes last month at Pimlico.

If you want to plunk a few dollars down on Big Brown, be prepared to get less than 50 cents on the dollar in return. That’s better than tearing up a losing ticket, but wagering on short-priced favorites doesn’t pay in the long run.

Although I obviously didn’t have the winner in the Derby, readers who followed my advice did cash a show ticket on late-running Denis of Cork, who was last early on, and so got back $11.60 of the suggested $25 Derby wager.

I’d recommend saving that money for the Belmont Stakes next month, when I expect Big Brown — who’ll be racing for the third time in five weeks, after having made just three starts in his career before the Triple Crown races — will be vulnerable, and lots of people will be betting on him, creating potentially lucrative opportunites for those daring souls willing to bet against the Big Horse.

But, if you crave action today, and (like me) hate betting on favorites, you could put $2 on Icabad Crane.

jdonalds@projo.com

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