Jim Donaldson

Curlin may make easy money, but I’m looking for hard cash
01:00 AM EDT on Saturday, June 9, 2007
Please pardon me if I don’t get excited over the presence of a filly in the Belmont Stakes.
I’m not a sexist when it comes to thoroughbreds. I’m a realist.
And the reality is that it’s been more than a century since a filly won the grueling endurance test that is the third leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, contested at a distance of 12 furlongs — a mile-and-a-half.
Rags to Riches, with Lauren Robson up, works out at Belmont Park. The 3-year-old filly could be a dark horse in today’s race.
AP / Julie Jacobson
Combine that with the fact that Todd Pletcher, despite his widely recognized status as America’s leading horse trainer, has never won a Triple Crown race, and it hardly seems likely that his talented 3-year-old filly, Rags To Riches, can upset the boys today at beautiful Belmont Park.
There is no question that Rags To Riches is the best filly of her age. She’s proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt with three impressive Grade I wins this year: in the Las Virgenes Stakes and Santa Anita Oaks, both run at Santa Anita, and, most recently, in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs, the day before Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.
Purchased as a yearling for $1.9 million, Rags To Riches is a half-sister to Jazil, who won the Belmont Stakes last year. A daughter of A.P. Indy, the 1992 Horse of the Year, Rags To Riches is bred to go a distance of ground. She’ll also get a five-pound weight allowance from the boys, carrying 121 pounds today to the 126 toted by the colts.
But the last filly to win the Belmont was Tanya, way back in 1905. And, with Pletcher winless in Triple Crown races, the odds of an upset seem a bit long to me, especially since Rags To Riches could be sent off at a relatively short price. She has been listed as the third choice in the early betting line, at 3-1, behind Hard Spun, who was second in the Derby and third in the Preakness, at 5-2, and the likely heavy favorite, Curlin, who is listed at 6-5 coming off his narrow win over Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense three weeks ago in the Preakness, at Pimlico, in Baltimore.
Street Sense won’t be running today. His breeding rights were sold last week to Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid al Maktoum of Dubai. Plans call for Street Sense to stand at stud next year at the Sheik’s farm in Kentucky, Darley Stud. In the meantime, Street Sense will continue to race wearing the silks of owner Jim Tafel and run for trainer Carl Nafzger, who says he now is pointing the colt toward the Travers Stakes — commonly referred to as the “Midsummer Derby” — in August at Saratoga, followed by the Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth Park in the fall.
That leaves just Curlin and Hard Spun as the only horses to contest all three legs of the Triple Crown this year.
Now, if you’ve been following the selections offered in this space for the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, you’d have wagered a modest $32 for a profit of $42 and change — a return on investment of more than 130 percent. Let’s see your broker beat that. And the only “commission” you paid is the 50 cents it cost for the Journal.
Faithful readers who trusted in my equine expertise cashed an exacta ticket on Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Derby, then hit another exacta in the Preakness, when Curlin topped Street Sense.
Having profited on those two races, I’m willing to take more of a gamble in the Belmont, where the obvious choice is Curlin. He is unquestionably, and understandably, the safest bet.
But, good as Curlin is, this will be his third tough test in a span of just five weeks. Which leaves open the possibility that a better-rested — if not necessarily better — horse can pull off an upset. I’m willing to wager a portion of the profits from the first two Triple Crown races on just that possibility.
Imawildandcrazyguy has been idle since rallying from dead last of 20 in the Derby to finish fourth, behind Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin. He was just a half-length behind Curlin in Kentucky, and may be able to make that up in Belmont’s long stretch run.
I didn’t like Hard Spun in the Preakness, and I like him less in the Belmont. Even though he’s bred for distance, he likes to run near the front, where he’ll likely be tested by Slew’s Tizzy, who comes into his first Triple Crown race off back-to-back victories in the Lexington Stakes, at Keeneland, on April 21 and the Lone Star Derby on May 12.
A son of Tiznow, who was a two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Slew’s Tizzy is a big horse with a long stride who could appreciate the lengthy distance of the Belmont. It helps that he’ll be ridden by John Velazquez, the top jockey in New York, and one of the best in the world.
Another who may like to go long is Tiago, who won the Santa Anita Derby at odds of 29-1, but was seventh in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a half-brother to Giacomo, the 2005 Kentucky Derby winner. Jockey Mike Smith, who rode him in a recent workout at Belmont, said: “He really likes the big, sweeping turns.”
Then there’s Nick Zito’s C.P. West, who was fourth in the Preakness, beaten 5 1/2 lengths at 25-1. C.P. West doesn’t appear to be good enough to win, but Zito always is dangerous in the classic races.
While I certainly wouldn’t question anyone who wanted to put their money on the short-priced Curlin, I’m going to take a risk in hope of reaping larger rewards by opting for Slew’s Tizzy and I’mawildandcrazyguy in $1 exacta wheels over the field, for a total wager of $12. Even if I lose, I’ll still show a profit of more than $30 on a total of $44 in Triple Crown wagers. And, if I win, the returns will be considerably more than I’d get by wagering on a victory by Curlin.
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