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Jim Donaldson

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Jim Donaldson: The team’s fortunes hinge on Brady, but defense is a disaster

01:00 AM EDT on Sunday, August 31, 2008

I’m worried about the Patriots.

Not because they went winless in the preseason. While not exactly encouraging, their 0-4 record isn’t necessarily discouraging.

Except that …

Tom Brady hasn’t played a down. Yes, he’ll play in the season opener next Sunday against Kansas City. And, yes, he has started every game since taking over for the injured Drew Bledsoe three games into the 2001 season. That’s an impressive string of 127 in a row, including playoff games — an amazing number, considering the casualty rate for quarterbacks (indeed, for all players) in the NFL.

But that’s one of the things that worries me. How much longer can Brady beat the odds? Especially with an offensive line that couldn’t protect him against the Giants in the Super Bowl, and has looked even worse in the preseason? If he goes down for an extended period, the Pats’ hopes for a return to the Super Bowl go down with him.

Even if Brady can stay healthy, there’s still reason for a healthy — or unhealthy, depending on your point of view — dose of pessimism regarding the Pats’ postseason prospects. Remember, painful as it may be, that it has been defensive genius Bill Belichick’s defensive unit that has been the team’s downfall in the playoffs the past two years.

Despite struggling offensively, the Pats took the lead in Super Bowl XLII with just 2:42 left to play, and then pinned the Giants back at the 17 on the ensuing kickoff, only to allow N.Y. to drive 83 yards to the touchdown that spoiled New England’s perfect season. That was similar to what happened the year before in the AFC championship game in Indianapolis, when the Patriots, having blown a 21-3 lead, went back on top, 34-31, with 3:49 to go, but then allowed the Colts to drive 80 yards to the winning touchdown.

This year, the secondary is suspect, and the linebacking corps is a combination of too old and too young.

Fortunately, the AFC East is not a strong division, and so, if the Pats can keep Brady in one piece, they once again should finish first. But, while hardly a team in deep trouble, they don’t appear to be a team that will go deep into the playoffs.

jdonalds@projo.com

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