"Let's see, he's been there eight years, is making about three-quarters of a million dollars a year, and hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game. I'd like to have a job like that."

-- A college basketball coach, describing Tim Welsh's tenure at PC.

This is a big year for Tim Welsh and the Friars, who are coming off the first back-to-back losing seasons PC has had since 1981-82 and 1982-83, when Joe Mullaney was in his second, and considerably less successful, stint at the tiny Dominican school that he had brought into the big time his first time around, in the late 1950s and early '60s.

Welsh has three years left, including this one, on his lucrative contract -- which means decision time is coming up fast for PC athletic director Bob Driscoll.

Because don't think for a minute that other Big East conference coaches aren't hinting to prospective PC recruits that Welsh may not be around to see them graduate.

Of course, far too many of the recruits Welsh has brought to Providence haven't stuck around for four years, anyway -- one of the negatives his detractors cite when evaluating his job performance.

Welsh doesn't have to worry about his job this year unless the season turns out to be a disaster of highly unexpected proportions.

On the contrary, this ought to be a pretty good year for the Friars, a season in which PC fans have every right to expect to see their team return to postseason play for the first time since their disappointing first-round exit from the NCAA Tournament in 2004.

That had been a marvelous season for the Friars until it imploded at the end. Ranked as high as 12th in the country, and boasting a record of 20-5 that included wins over eventual national champion UConn -- in Hartford -- and defending national champion Syracuse, PC fell apart down the stretch. Playing at home against sixth-ranked Pitt, with first place in the conference at stake, the Friars were routed, 88-61. They lost at home again, 63-54, to Boston College in the regular-season finale, then lost their first game in the Big East Tournament, to Villanova. After securing a school-record five seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Friars were upset by 12th-seeded Pacific in the opening round.

Since then, PC has gone 14-17, despite having a first-team All-American in Ryan Gomes, and last year went 12-15.

They have lost players, as well -- among them Rob McKiver, who scored a game-high 33 points Monday night for Houston in the Cougars' overtime win at URI, and Gerald Brown, who has moved on to Loyola (Md.) and last week scored 24 points against Navy and 30 against North Florida. Dwight Brewington, who would have been PC's leading returning scorer last year, now is at Liberty, where he should be one of the top players.

They are the latest in a long list of departed Friars that now exceeds 20.

The good news is that Welsh has a good group of players now -- kids he likes both on and off the court. But they are young. There is only one senior, Herbert Hill. So this doesn't seem like an NCAA year for the Friars.

But there's no reason it shouldn't be an N.I.T. year. Especially with PC playing 9 of its first 10 games at home, with the only road game being a trip to defending national champion and currently No. 1 ranked Florida, coached by Billy Donovan, who led PC to the Final Four in 1987, when Rick Pitino was coach.

That was nearly 20 years ago and, in that time, there has been only one season when the Friars won any NCAA Tournament games -- in 1997, when Pete Gillen took them to the Elite Eight, upsetting Duke along the way and coming within seconds of beating eventual national champion Arizona and getting to the Final Four.

So is it really so bad that Welsh has yet to win an NCAA game?

Rick Barnes never did, although he came close against Virginia and Ohio State, and he did have the Friars in postseason play five times -- three NCAA appearances, two N.I.T.s -- in six years before leaving for Clemson.

Welsh also has won a school-record 11 conference games, and he has done it twice -- in 2004 and 2001. That's something neither Barnes, nor Gillen, nor even Pitino, who went 10-6 in '87, ever did. And Welsh has done it while playing 16 conference games, while Barnes' and Gillen's teams played 18.

With the addition last year of Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati and DePaul, the Big East is tougher than ever. The Friars finished 13th last season in the expanded 16-team league and didn't qualify for the conference tournament in Madison Square Garden. Not that New York has been a happy place for PC under Welsh, whose Big East tourney record is a dismal 1-7.

That's why this year -- and next -- are so important. The Friars should be no worse than 9-4 heading into league play in January, meaning that even a 6-10 conference record would leave them over .500 and possibly get them into the N.I.T.

Would Driscoll then give Welsh another contract extension? Or would he wait to see if the Friars make it to the NCAA Tournament in 2008, when they should have a strong team?

The evaluation period has begun.