11:07 PM CDT on Monday, April 19, 2004
LAS VEGAS – Sunday. Quiet in the City of Lost Wages. This is reflected
in the $80-a-night rate for one of the 5,000 rooms at the MGM Grand. It
will rise to $129 in the three nights I am here, but it's still a
bargain given the size and quality of the room.
My mission? To see whether America's fastest-growing major city might
also become the capital of American geezerhood. A recent study of
migration patterns showed that Nevada is being flooded with geezers – it
led all states for in-migration of people 65 and older.
My first lesson is that Las Vegas can twist your head. It is the only
city where the little metal curbside boxes that dispense free
advertising publications don't push real estate. In Vegas, the product
is sex.
Should I make a collection of these advertising fliers? Hey, it's
research. Then I imagine myself, burdened with the nine lurid offerings
at one box collection, explaining to passers-by, "It's not what you
think. I work for a newspaper. They pay me to do this."
Sure.
I retreat to my hotel room. I need to prepare myself for the gaming
tables. This is not easy, because there is a dangerous connection
between MIT, its students and gaming. One of my early roommates there
was on the dean's list one semester. A semester later, poor B.G. had
flunked out. He went back to Alabama. The cause: full immersion in
fantasy baseball. The South American contingent at MIT was known for its
high-stakes poker games. Others lost days to complicated games of
Diplomacy.
In fact, the definitive book on blackjack has its foundation at MIT.
Edward O. Thorp's Beat the Dealer (Vintage, $11), first published
in 1962, is based on a computer analysis of the game. If you've ever
read a book called Basic Strategy for Blackjack – they're sold at
bookstands in every casino – Mr. Thorp's work is central. The same book
also originated many of the card-counting systems in use today.
Ed Thorp was way ahead of the curve. There was only one mainframe
computer at MIT in 1962. It was virtually new. The entire MIT course
catalog for 1961-62 contained only six courses with the word "computer"
or "computation" in the title. Slide rules were big. Mr. Thorp
recognized that blackjack is a matter of cosmic importance.
Significantly, he now runs a hedge fund in Newport Beach, Calif.
Why the deep academic concern for blackjack? Simple. Blackjack is
different from most games on the casino floor. While the results in
craps or roulette are true random chance, blackjack is a game of
"continuous probability" – every card played has an effect on future
play. Knowledge of the cards that have been played, regardless of how
many decks are being used, can shift the odds of play from the dealer to
the player. Play a perfect game, increase your bets when the cards are
running right, and you'll beat the house.
The best recent book on the subject – great summer reading – is Ben
Mezrich's Bringing Down the House (Free Press, $14). It's the
story of six MIT students who conspired to use a card-counting system
and won millions in Las Vegas. It will make a great movie. Think Matt
Damon in Good Will Hunting, Rounders and Ocean's Eleven.
Another great read is 24/7 (Diane Publishing, $24), Andres
Martinez's entertaining account of "Living It Up and Doubling Down in
the New Las Vegas."
A newbie at blackjack, I decide to see if I can hold my own using basic
strategy. At Bellagio, arguably the grandest resort on the Strip, I
start at a $10 table. It takes a few hands for me to realize the dealer
is about seven months pregnant.
I start feeling guilty. She's standing. I'm sitting.
Up $20, I leave.
I'll punish my rudeness by playing at a $25 minimum table.
Something amazing happens. I play basic strategy reasonably well. The
dealer busts when it is likely. I get a run of high cards against her
run of low cards, giving me some winning double-downs. Two blackjacks
come my way. A mound of $25 chips grows.
She deals at blinding speed. Her play is beyond automatic. I have
trouble keeping track of my hand, let alone hers. Counting, by any
system, is out of the question.
Even so, a run of good cards is a run of good cards. In less than half
an hour, I'm tired. Worse, the dealer's shift is over. I become
superstitious, thinking she will take my luck with her.
I stare at the mound of chips. I don't know how much I've won. The first
hint it's a nice sum comes when I "color up." There's a $500 chip. I'm
up that much from a $200 stake.
Returning to the MGM Grand, I wonder about playing a $100 table. Might
be better than caffeine. But Prudent Man goes to a $25 table and starts
over. Play becomes a long tug of war until a run of low-odds cards takes
me down.
I quit while I'm ahead. I want to enjoy the odd buzz of winning $400 at
cards.
And what has this got to do with our economic future?
Lots: Las Vegas is to L.A. as L.A. was to Detroit.
Sunday: A strange future
Scott Burns answers questions of general interest in his Thursday
columns. Write Scott Burns, The Dallas Morning News, P.O. Box 655237,
Dallas, Texas 75265, or send an e-mail.
E-mail sburns@dallasnews.com