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McAdam: Dice-K needs to lower his pitch count, and more stuff about the Sox

07:25 AM EDT on Monday, July 14, 2008

By SEAN McADAM
Journal Sports Writer

BOSTON — Random observations and opinions as we head into the All-Star break:

Daisuke Matsuzaka finished the first half with a 10-1 record and an ERA of 2.65. Terrific.

Over his last four starts of the first half, he gave up exactly one run. Splendid.

But here’s where the Red Sox should be concerned: in three of those last four starts, including yesterday, he failed to pitch past the sixth inning. Twice, in fact, he didn’t pitch past the fifth.

Shutout innings are nice, but only if you can pitch a lot of them, and Matsuzaka’s infuriatingly high pitch counts mean extra work for a bullpen that will need to be carefully managed in the second half.

Even if you remove his four-inning outing in Seattle on May 27, when he left because of shoulder fatigue, Matsuzaka is averaging just a tick more than 5.6 innings per outing.

After drawing praise for finally attacking the strike zone and using his fastball to get ahead in his last start, yesterday, Matsuzaka needed a ridiculous 115 pitches to get 18 outs. For the Red Sox, getting three innings from the bullpen wasn’t a hardship since the All-Star break will provide four days of rest. But that won’t be the case in August and September.

Matsuzaka went into yesterday second in the American League in average pitches per inning, a dubious distinction to be sure. And while he’s yet to give up a hit with the bases loaded in 11 situations this year, the fact is that he’s forcing himself to throw stressful pitches too often.

Which is why when people in the organization start thinking about a postseason pitching rotation, increasingly Jon Lester — and not Matsuzaka — gets the most consideration to start Game Two.

If he’s ever going to evolve into a true front-of-the-rotation starter, Matsuzaka will have to learn to be a lot more efficient.

•Don’t look for the Red Sox to seek a short-term replacement for shortstop Julio Lugo, who probably won’t be back until September. But the Sox can use this time to evaluate Jed Lowrie at the position, giving them a head start on 2009. If Lowrie proves he can play short for an extended period, the Sox will be that much more aggressive in ridding themselves of Lugo and his remaining $18 million in salary.

Meanwhile, there are a number of teams in the market for a shortstop (led by the Dodgers and Orioles), which will drive the price up for the few shortstops being made available (Jack Wilson, David Eckstein).

•The start of the second half won’t be easy for the Red Sox. First, they start on the West Coast, which is always a challenge. Then, look at the quality of opponents: Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Angels, Royals and White Sox.

Since the Yankees, Angels and White Sox all have winning records — the latter two are leading their respective divisions — and the Sox never seem to play well at Safeco Field (5-13 since the start of 2005), the Royals represent the only cupcake in the first five series of the second half.

Sean Casey is a smart guy, so I assume he knows, after 11 major-league seasons, that he’s not, um, fast, right? Had umpire Doug Eddings not blown a call at second in the fourth inning yesterday, Casey would have been thrown out trying to stretch singles into doubles three times in the span of six at-bats over two days.

•If the Red Sox win another pennant, might they not be subjected to the same kind of raids that the Patriots suffered after their third Super Bowl win? Winning draws attention to a franchise, and pitching coach John Farrell, bench coach Brad Mills and third-base coach DeMarlo Hale would all make viable managerial candidates. Furthermore, it seems only a matter of time before assistant general manager Jed Hoyer and vice president/player personnel Ben Cherington get considered for GM openings around the game. And there will be openings. In the N.L. alone, there could be managerial openings in New York, Washington, Houston, and GM jobs in New York, Washington, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco.

•How many major-league second basemen would you choose over Dustin Pedroia right now? I’d start with Philadelphia’s Chase Utley, but I might end there, too. To put Pedroia’s first-half into perspective: exactly two players in franchise history collected more hits before the All-Star break than he now has (124).

•It’s doubtful that Justin Masterson will join the Red Sox bullpen on their West Coast road trip, but he could join them when they return to Fenway, on July 25. When he arrives, somebody has to go, and Craig Hansen is the logical choice to be sent back to Pawtucket. Hansen has options remaining, but it’s his inconsistency — scored upon in more than a third of his appearances in Boston — that will get him a ticket back to McCoy.

smcadam@projo.com

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