The Providence Journal / BOB BREIDENBACH

There’s a strong possibility that Curt Schilling may never pitch again if he does not have surgery to repair a torn biceps tendon in his right arm.

That’s exactly what his personal physician, Craig Morgan, is trying to explain to the Boston Red Sox. Morgan is emphatically suggesting that the 41-year-old right-hander needs surgery. The Red Sox, however, want Schilling to take a more conservative approach by rehabbing the ailment.

It’s become a tough decision for everyone involved, but Morgan explained his point of view yesterday, saying surgery was Schilling’s only option if he wants to pitch again. Morgan also says if Schilling follows the conservative route of the Red Sox, he has no shot of returning.

At this point, Schilling will not have surgery. In fact, Schilling, who received numerous cortisone shots last season, was scheduled to have another yesterday.

When asked to put a percentage on a possible return for Schilling, Morgan was adamant.

If Schilling has the surgery, there’s a “75- to 80-percent chance,” said Morgan. “And the percentage of him being able to pitch effectively with conservative treatment is probably between zero and five percent.”

The doctor has already performed two surgeries on Schilling’s right shoulder, one in 1995 and again in 1999. He was playing for the Philadelphia Phillies during both operations. Morgan said yesterday: “I’ve never seen him have this much pain. This guy has pain opening a door.”

“I know his shoulder better than anybody who breathes on this planet,” said Morgan. “I’ve known it for thirteen years. The other two operations that I did are carbon copies of the controversy that is going on with this one. I was told by the organization he was with for those two other operations that my approach was way out on the fringe, wouldn’t work and had no shot at success. How did I do?”

Since those procedures, Schilling won three World Series titles (one with Arizona and two with the Red Sox) and posted a 117-63 regular-season mark. After his 21-6 record during his first year in Boston (2004), Schilling followed with an 8-8 mark in 2005, 15-7 in 2006 and 9-8 last season. But he has spent considerable time on the disabled list two of the last three seasons.

Dr. Robert Shalvoy, of University Orthopedics in Providence, is a board certified orthopedic surgeon and clinical assistant professor at Brown Medical School. He has performed many surgeries similar to the one Morgan wants to perform on Schilling. According to Shalvoy, who knows both Morgan and Red Sox team physician Tom Gill, everyone involved must have known about the injury and the Red Sox felt from the beginning that Schilling would have the ability to pitch through this.

“I’m sure the Red Sox look at it and see the same amount of damage that Morgan does,” Shalvoy said. “The Red Sox might be thinking Schilling can pitch through it and see how it does. It does the Red Sox no good to shelve this guy for a year and bring him back in ’09. … Morgan, who is a little bit removed from the situation, says ‘I see this damage here and it needs to be fixed.’ … The whole contract/money issue doesn’t faze Morgan at all because it’s not his contract, it’s not his money and it’s not the team he’s taking care of.”

The Red Sox, who agreed on a one-year $8-million contract with Schilling last November, haven’t discussed their side of the matter other than a statement issued on Thursday that read: “Curt Schilling was examined by Red Sox doctors in January after he reported feeling right shoulder discomfort. Curt has started a program of rest, rehabilitation and shoulder strengthening in an attempt to return to pitching.”

Morgan does not concur.

“In all honesty and respect for the Red Sox, they are relying on medical advice from people within their organization, and in doing so they truly believe that that’s the best thing for them and Curt,” said Morgan. “I’m not faulting them on that, and I want to make that clear. I just have to disagree with that — strongly.”

In layman’s terms, Morgan said Schilling’s biceps tendon from the shoulder to the elbow is torn lengthwise in three separate “tunnels.” The doctor also explained the tendon is sick and diseased, and has been building up for over a year.

Schilling passed all his physicals required by the Red Sox prior to signing his contract last November, but when he began his offseason throwing program the injury worsened and that’s when he started to feel the discomfort. Morgan also said a recent MRI clearly shows the torn tendon.

“Once you see that separation of the bundles, it’s a well-known, extremely painful condition that is irreversible. The pain will only go away with surgery to get the tendon out of there.”

It’s not that the Red Sox are saying Schilling does not have a serious injury; the organization just wants to approach it a different way.

Morgan is convinced the conservative approach will not alleviate Schilling’s pain in order to allow him to exercise, let alone throw a ball.

“Well, the problem is if you try that conservative approach it’s going to take you 6-to-8 weeks until you can put a verdict on its success or failure,” said Morgan. “If it fails, then you’ve blown eight weeks, and that eats into the time that he could have been spending to recover from the surgery, so you’re talking about the end of the season anyway.”

Shalvoy said he understands both sides of the situation.

“The problem with Curt Schilling’s shoulder, without ever looking at it myself, is this is an old shoulder,” he said. “Guys his age, even guys in their 30s, their shoulders look bad and are worn out. This is like you have these beat-up tires on your car and you get a flat and you ask [the mechanic] ‘can’t you just patch it or fix it.’ He’ll say ‘Guy, this tire isn’t in great shape to begin with. We start patching this thing, I can’t guarantee anything.’ ”

jmcdonal@projo.com