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After the steroid era, Jim Rice’s numbers for the Red Sox really shine

08:12 AM EST on Tuesday, January 13, 2009

By DANIEL BARBARISI
Journal Sports Writer

Former Red Sox outfielder Jim Rice acknowledges the applause at Fenway Park after throwing out the first pitch of Game Three in the ALDS on Oct. 5.


AP / Elise Amendola

BOSTON –– In 1998, Jim Rice’s numbers suddenly didn’t look like much.

When Rice clubbed 46 home runs during his otherworldly MVP season, 1978, he was far ahead of the pack. His closest competitor was George Foster, with 40. No one else had more than 35. He was as strong as the proverbial ox and seemed like a lock for the Hall of Fame someday.

By 1998, however, as observers were in their fourth year of considering Rice for the Hall, Mark McGwire hit his famous 70 home runs. Sammy Sosa hit 68. In all, seven men hit more than 46 home runs in 1998. Eleven batters hit more than 40.

Extra

Video: Rice's election celebrated at Ken Ryan's baseball academy

In that light, the 382 home runs Rice hit in his 12-year career seemed as faded as those blue and gray 1980s Red Sox uniforms.

Indeed, Rice’s candidacy, which had started to gain steam before the 1998 season, was suddenly on life support. In January 1998, Rice received 42.4 percent of the vote. In 1999, with the astronomical home run totals of McGwire and Sosa on voters’ minds, Rice’s support dropped dramatically, to 29.4 percent.

Baseball purists often point to its statistics as sacrosanct, an immutable chronicle that allows comparison across eras, across teams and across situations. But statistics are much like history: They are in the eye of the beholder.

With the unprecedented offensive explosion created by steroids and other drugs, player fitness, smaller ballparks, and expansion in the late 1990s, Rice’s power statistics looked relatively meager.

At the same time, some have applied modern criticisms to his other numbers, particularly his on-base percentage, now that statisticians appreciate the impact that drawing a walk can have on a game.

But just like those old blue and gray uniforms, which the team is bringing back in 2009, overall, Rice’s numbers have aged well –– while the Hall of Fame voters are not being kind to those who starred during the steroid era.

As the steroid controversy enveloped baseball in the early parts of this decade, Rice’s vote totals started to jump.

Rice’s voting totals climbed 5 percent in 2005, the year of the steroid hearings, and five percent more in 2006, to 63.4 percent, the year testing and enforcement began in earnest.

McGwire, meanwhile, is in baseball limbo. He has 583 career home runs, and his best seasons dwarf Rice’s. But this year, he got 21.9 percent of the vote, down from 23.6 last year. Matt Williams, who hit 378 home runs, but was named in the 2007 Mitchell Report, received only 1.7 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot.

Fair or not, players who are regarded as pure suddenly have an edge over those who come from a tainted era.

Rice didn’t want to talk about the impact the offensive explosion might have had on his vote totals, preferring instead to look at the maturity levels of players from his time versus players now.

“You have to look at certain situations where the ballparks are smaller,” Rice said. “I’m not saying that guys are juicing up by shooting (steroids) into their arm; they’re juicing up by lifting weights. Maybe some guys are juicing up by injection.”

Modern eyes have looked at Rice’s career .352 on-base percentage and wondered if it should have been higher for a player with a .298 batting average.

Rice didn’t think this mattered much.

“We’re talking about different times now. When I played, at the time, we did not worry about on-base percentage. We were worried about W’s and L’s. We worried about leaving guys on base.

“You may have a good on-base percentage, but if you’ve got no one to knock you in, what are you going to do? I want someone to get me a ball in the outfield, hit in the gap. Forget about on-base percentage. Give me 3-for-10 –– .300,” Rice said.

Not everyone feels that way, however, and on-base percentage is clearly a more important factor now, as are home runs earned before any whiff of the steroid controversy. What that should mean for other players of his era, whose numbers may now also look more impressive in the eyes of the voters?

Braves outfielder Dale Murphy, for one, should feel good. His 398 home runs now resonate in a way they didn’t when he became eligible in 1998, and his willingness to work counts and take a walk allowed him to compile a .346 on-base percentage, which in the modern era should be appreciated alongside his otherwise poor .265 career batting average. He even had some speed, joining the 30-home run, 30-steal club in 1983.

And perhaps it will help Yankee first baseman Don Mattingly, as well, whose peak was shorter, and perhaps slightly lower, than Rice’s. But his on-base percentage is an equally impressive .358 over his 13-year career, which may help him as the years progress. Both Mattingly and Murphy received just under 12 percent of the vote this year.

Rice, perhaps, can lead their cheering section from inside.

dbarbari@projo.com

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