The Rays’ B.J. Upton beats Mark Kotsay’s tag on a fourth-inning pickoff attempt.

The Journal / Mary Murphy

BOSTON — The Rays are in trouble now.

Yeah, you read that right.

The Rays have their proverbial backs to the ol’ Green Monster.

You may think they’re on Easy Street. But they’re not. They’re on the ropes.

The Red Sox have ’em right where they want ’em.

Sure, the Rays lead their American League Championship Series with Boston, three games to one.

Just like the Indians did last year.

And you know how that turned out.

An isolated, freakish incident? A once-in-a-lifetime comeback?

Hardly.

What Boston fan ever can forget 2004, when the Sox fell behind the hated Yankees, their nemesis for nearly 90 years, three games to none in the ALCS — losing Game Three in Fenway Park by the humiliating score of 19-8 — but rallied to win not only the pennant, but also their first World Series since 1918, sweeping the Cardinals?

You want more?

How about the 2003 ALDS, when the Sox lost the first two games in Oakland, then won the next three?

It was the same scenario in the 1999 ALDS, when the Sox fell behind, 0-2, in Cleveland, but battled back to win the next three.

Granted, the Sox have just one more game at Fenway — tomorrow night — before, if all goes well, heading to St. Petersburg and the concrete circus tent the Rays call their home park.

But that wouldn’t be any different than it was against the Yanks in ’04, when the Red Sox headed for Yankee Stadium trailing three games to two.

Of course, if things continue to go the way they have the last three games — which is to say, not very well; not very well, at all — then the Sox will be heading home for the year, rather to St. Pete for Game Six.

And, truth be told, there are many more reasons for pessimism than optimism at this point.

We could point to Josh Beckett, unbeatable last year in the postseason, but 0-2 this year after being pounded for 8 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings Saturday night in Game Two at Tampa Bay.

That didn’t seem to be that big a deal, with Jon Lester slated to start Game Three in Boston. Two years after beating cancer, the 24-year-old lefty was beating almost every team he faced, racking up an 11-1 record at home — including a no-hitter against the Royals — and a 16-6 overall mark.

He was 2-0 in the postseason, winning Game Four of last year’s World Series sweep of the Rockies, and Game One of the ALDS against the Angels, when he gave up just one run in seven innings in Anaheim. He was even better in Game Four, pitching seven shutout innings and leaving with a 2-0 lead that the bullpen blew in the eighth.

So there was every reason to expect he would come up big again Monday afternoon.

Instead, he got shelled, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in 5 2/3 innings and taking the loss in a 9-1 Rays rout.

Nor is that, sadly, the only negative for the Red Sox, who appear to be in even worse shape than the economy.

Jacoby Ellsbury, a standout in the World Series last year as a rookie, when he batted .438, was benched last night because he’s in the midst of an 0-for-20 slump.

David “Big Papi” Ortiz has been looking like Jason “No Pop” Varitek at the plate. He was 0-for-14 before drilling a triple to the right-field corner leading off the seventh last night. Varitek is 0-for-10 in the ALCS.

Mike Lowell, the MVP of the ’07 World Series, is out for rest of the year because of the hip injury that has been plaguing him since midsummer.

The Boston bullpen has looked like a bunch of batting practice pitchers, getting torched even worse than the Patriots’ secondary Sunday night in San Diego. Manny Delcarmen was lit up for five earned runs on two hits and three walks in the sixth last night, while retiring only one batter.

As for starters, manager Terry Francona last night had to turn to 42-year-old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who hadn’t pitched since the final game of the regular season — and looked it, lasting just 2 2/3 innings, giving up 6 hits and 5 runs.

The Rays now have beaten Boston in seven of their last nine meetings, including the last four at Fenway.

But why dwell on the negative?

Take the famous Alfred E. Neuman “What, me worry?” approach.

Evidence to the contrary, real Red Sox fans should be positive their team will rally, just as it did last year against the Indians. And in ’04 against the Yankees. And in ’03 against the A’s. And in 1999 against Cleveland.

The Rays lead, three games to one?

The Red Sox have ’em just where they want ’em.

jdonalds@projo.com