Paul Byrd, keeping the Rays’ Carl Crawford close to first with a throw to Mark Kotsay in the eighth inning, gave up a three-run homer to Rocco Baldelli.

The Providence Journal / Mary Murphy

BOSTON — Here’s one statistic that doesn’t bode well for the Red Sox: When a league championship series is tied, 1-1, the team that wins game three has gone on to win the series 8 of 12 times since the best-of-seven series began in 1985.

But here’s one stat that does bode well for Boston: Of the four exceptions to that rule, two were the Red Sox, rallying to beat the Angels in 1986 and then coming from behind to beat Cleveland last year in seven games.

Red Sox pitcher Paul Byrd knows how quickly momentum can shift. Last year, Byrd was pitching for the Indians when they pulled ahead of the Red Sox. It was Byrd who beat Tim Wakefield in last year’s Game Three, giving the Indians a 2-1 advantage. The Red Sox fell behind, 3-1, in the series before storming back and advancing to the World Series.

“We can’t panic,” said Byrd. “We’ve been in this situation before. I’ve been on the other end of this thing, last year with Cleveland, and we had this team down, 3 to 1. It’s one of those things where we’re down a little bit now, they’re swinging the bats well, but we’re going to bounce back. I’d like to see Tim Wakefield out there tomorrow baffling them with the knuckleball.”

In a short series, Byrd said, anything can happen.

“Momentum can change like that in the playoffs,” Byrd said, snapping his fingers. Last year, when he was an Indian, “We beat you guys up. We couldn’t have had any more momentum going our way; we even had a game left at our place. And the next thing we know, we don’t score, and you guys were lights out. In a short situation, you never know what could happen,” he said.

The Red Sox now will turn to Wakefield to try to tie the series tonight in Game Four. Wakefield had a 4.13 ERA and won 10 games this year, but has had three straight poor postseasons, with ERAs of 9.82, 6.75 and 9.64, in the Red Sox’ last three trips to the playoffs. Wakefield hasn’t pitched since the regular season, but he said he’s thrown several side sessions with pitching coach John Farrell. His personal catcher, Kevin Cash, said he expects Wakefield to pitch well tomorrow — after last night’s loss, and having split the first two games in Tampa, the Sox are counting on it.

“It’s frustrating. We were, I think, not happy with the split, but happy that we got that first game. And then to get back to Boston we really wanted to win this game. But now you move on; tomorrow we need the win even more,” Cash said.

The Sox’ biggest bats will need to step up and give Wakefield support for the Sox to reach the World Series.

Dustin Pedroia is 6-for-11 with three walks in the ALCS, and Mark Kotsay had two hits against Tampa Bay starter Matt Garza yesterday, but no other Red Sox batter had more than one hit.

David Ortiz remains hitless in the championship series, and Jason Varitek left runners on base twice yesterday before drawing a walk and scoring in the seventh.

Ortiz, in particular, has been the focus of concern. Kotsay, one of the few who figured out Garza, said the Tampa righty kept the entire team off balance all night. Ortiz’s 0-for-4, and his six hitless at-bats before that, must be taken in the context of Tampa’s strong pitching.

“They’re pitching him tough. They’re pitching him backwards, they’re not giving him anything to hit,” Kotsay said. “We’re in the ALCS. That club over there has great pitching, and they’re doing a great job.”

Red Sox manager Terry Francona said he’s been around Ortiz long enough to know that the DH can break out of a slump with one good swing. In the meantime, it’s up to the rest of the lineup to contribute.

“When he (Ortiz) does get hot, it’ll certainly be welcome. At the same time, when certain guys aren’t hitting, you just expect somebody else to pick up the slack. That’s how we’ve always felt. We’re not going to live and die on one guy. We’ll win as a ballclub, and on certain nights, when it’s tough, we’ll lose as a ballclub,” Francona said.

dbarbari@projo.com