They may yet hang on to win their first division title since 1995 and finally put an end to the fast-finishing Yankees’ string of nine straight A.L. East championships, but the Red Sox won’t win the pennant.

Not the way they’re pitching now.

For much of this season, as Boston cruised comfortably along in first place, there was every reason to think that after winning just one World Series in 86 years, the Sox could very well win for second time in four years.

Not now.

Not as they cling to a division lead that has shrunk dramatically from 12 games (over the Blue Jays) on July 5 — the Sox led the Yankees by as many as 14½ on May 29 — to just 3½ over New York going into last night’s game at Toronto.

Not as their once-powerful pitching staff has struggled down the stretch.

With the exception of Josh Beckett, winner of a career-high 19 games and, in all likelihood, the Cy Young Award, Boston’s starters have been woeful lately.

And that’s putting it politely.

Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield has won 16 games, but none since Aug. 25. In three September starts, he has been shelled for 26 hits and 17 runs in just 12 2/3 innings.

While it’s reasonable to assume that Wakefield, who missed a start in late August because of a sore back, isn’t 100 percent physically, it’s harder to figure what’s wrong with Daisuke Matsuzaka, the highly touted Japanese pitcher for whom the Sox shelled out $103 million last winter.

Since May 30, Dice-K has a record of 7-9. In his last seven starts, he’s 1-4. In his last six starts, he’s been rocked for 36 hits and 30 runs in 32 innings — hardly reassuring numbers heading into the pressure-packed postseason.

Curt Schilling, one of the heroes of Boston’s historic World Series win in 2004, craves the ball in big games. But he’s 40 years old now and, since pitching a one-hit shutout at Oakland on June 7, he has a record of just 2-6. He’s 1-3 in his last four starts, with two losses to the Yankees, which doesn’t bode well in the event of an October matchup in the ALCS with Boston’s perennial archrival — and nemesis. Especially since the Yanks have beaten the Sox in eight of their last 10 meetings.

Rounding out the rotation is young lefty Jon Lester, who was 4-0 heading into last night’s start against the Blue Jays. But he’d given up 22 hits and 11 runs in 22 innings over his previous four starts — two apiece against the lowly Orioles and the even more lowly Devil Rays.

Can anyone then, other than Beckett, be counted on to pitch well in the postseason?

There’s hope for Schilling, because of his guts and savvy. As for the other three, well, there’s no reason to think Matsuzaka will suddenly straighten himself out. Wakefield appears to be hurting, and Lester has control issues that are cause for concern.

Compounding Boston’s pitching problems is that left-handed reliever Hideki Okajima, who has been a delightful surprise this season, appears to be tiring lately. He gave up a game-winning homer to the Blue Jays’ Vernon Wells at Fenway on Sept. 5, then was rocked for back-to-back homers by the Yankees’ Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano last Friday night, when he gave up four runs on three hits in just one-third of an inning as Boston blew a 7-2, eighth-inning lead. Prior to the All-Star break, Okajima’s ERA was 0.83. In the games since then, it is 4.94.

Veteran right-hander Eric Gagne, obtained from Texas to bolster the bullpen in early August in exchange for capable lefty starter Kason Gabbard (4-0 for Boston at the time of the trade) and Pawtucket outfielder David Murphy (a first-round draft choice in 2003), has been a bust.

Gagne got off to a horrible start with Boston, giving up three hits and four runs in one-third of an inning at Baltimore in his first outing, and now, in 14 appearances for the Red Sox, has an embarrassing earned-run average of 7.62, having given up 11 runs and 21 hits in 13 innings.

Pitching is what wins playoff games and, for much of this season, Boston had it. Unfortunately, now that they need it most, they don’t.

You’ve got to like their chances of winning when Beckett is on the mound but, after him, everybody else looks shaky — even Schilling, who isn’t the pitcher he was in ’04, much less in ’01 when he was co-MVP in the World Series for the Diamondbacks, who beat the Yankees for the title.

You’re really rolling the dice now with Dice-K, who recently was pounded for 8 runs on 6 hits, including 2 homers, in 2 2/3 innings by the O’s, and your stomach ought to feel as fluttery as Wakefield’s erratic knuckleball when it’s his turn to start. But would you really want to replace either of those two in the playoff pitching rotation with Lester?

Closer Jonathan Papelbon is the best in baseball despite his disappointing performance last Friday night against the Yankees. But Gagne looms as a disaster waiting to happen out of the bullpen, and hitters appear to be catching up to the fading Okajima.

Boston fans had better hope the Red Sox hang on and finally win the A.L. East. Because, if don’t get their pitching straightened out, the division title will be the only thing the Sox win this season.

jdonalds@projo.com