Boston Red Sox
On Baseball: There's a (financial) method to Manny's madness
09:29 AM EST on Sunday, March 1, 2009
So who does this Manny guy think he is?
The Los Angeles Dodgers wanted to pay Manny Ramirez $45 million to play for them for two years. The catch: some of the money, $25 million, would be deferred until after the contract ended.
Ramirez and his agent, Boston fan-favorite Scott Boras, rejected the offer, saying they wanted a $45-million deal without deferrals.
The Dodgers’ plan would pay Ramirez $10 million in 2009 and 2010, while he is under contract to the team. Ramirez would receive the rest of the money after the contract expires, $10 million each in 2011 and 2012, and $5 million in 2013.
The Dodgers seem to be the only serious suitor for Ramirez, or at least the only one considering paying him more than $20 million a year. The Mets and the Giants have been rumored to be interested, but for less money.
What is Ramirez thinking? Isn’t $45 million deferred still $45 million?
Well, not exactly. Boras and Ramirez have a point: deferred money means less money.
Dollars paid later can’t be invested or put in an interest-bearing account in the same way that dollars paid now can. While the interest rates Ramirez could achieve would vary widely, just for argument’s sake, we can assume that he could put any new income aside in multi-year certificate of deposit and safely earn 3 to 5 percent on his cash. If he doesn’t get the money until later, he can’t earn that interest.
At the same time, the federal tax rate for the highest income bracket should be higher when Ramirez receives those deferred payments. The tax cuts enacted under President Bush expire in 2010, and the rate on the highest income earners will rise to 39.6 percent, from 35 percent. Ramirez’ deferred $25 million would be taxed at that higher rate.
It’s probable that between the lost interest and the higher taxes, the deferrals would cost Ramirez somewhere in the area of $3 million.
Even so, considering the amount of guaranteed money in the deal, it is puzzling to see Ramirez’ camp vacillating over less than $3 million, and it seems obvious that they should take the deal.
Throw out the Yankees’ signing of Mark Teixeira, and the contracts that free-agent hitters have signed are paltry by baseball standards. Bobby Abreu and his seven-straight 100-RBI seasons were worth one year, $5 million. Pat Burrell and his 30 home runs got two years at $8 million. Adam Dunn, perhaps the best of the bunch with four straight 40-home-run years, got two years averaging $10 million a piece.
Dunn is 29. Ramirez is 36, and will be 37 in May. In this market, is Manny really worth more than twice as much per year than Dunn, or worth the extra years that Boras wants?
Sure doesn’t seem that way. Dunn’s three-year averages are pretty good: he averages 93 runs scored, 40 home runs, and 99 RBI, while batting .244 with an on-base percentage of .379 and a slugging percentage of .519.
Ramirez, while clearly the better hitter, isn’t ahead by all that much. His averages are 88 runs scored, 30 home runs, and 103 RBI. He has hit at a .316 clip, with a .419 on-base percentage and a .571 slugging percentage.
Ramirez was otherworldly during his two-month rental stint in Los Angeles. His numbers in Dodger blue far exceed those three-year averages. But at 37, it is unlikely that Ramirez would sustain that level of performance for an extended period.
Baseball economics are highly subjective, but the decision seems clear. The Dodgers are willing to pay Ramirez based on those two months, regardless of whether he can be that player over the long term. Deferred money or not, Boras and Ramirez seem out of touch to be holding out in a market with no other real bidders. If they don’t take this deal now, a better one probably isn’t coming along.
One thing, however, must be remembered. This is Scott Boras, and in the end, Boras always gets his guys their money.
Well, he did. Until a situation with an older Red Sox catcher blew up in his face this winter. In the Jason Varitek negotiations, Boras lost because the Red Sox knew there were no other real suitors, and the Boston brass stood their ground knowing they had the best offer on the table.
Here’s betting the Dodgers will do the same, and get their man at their price.
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