BOSTON -- If the Red Sox are lucky over the next four days, they may be able to edge out the Toronto Blue Jays for second place in the American League East. But it will take more than luck for the Red Sox to fix what ails them long-term.

Beyond the many obvious challenges facing the Red Sox -- more on those later -- there's the matter of the rest of the league, which stands to get better, not worse, by next year.

Two teams -- New York and Detroit -- have already won 95 games -- and a third team -- Minnesota, with 94 wins before last night -- is poised to join them. A fourth team -- Oakland -- has already won 90 games and a fifth -- Chicago -- could still reach that plateau.

That's potentially five times with 90 or more wins. Two others -- Los Angeles and Toronto -- will likely win more than 85 games. That means that not including the Red Sox themselves, seven teams will probably finish with 85 or more victories.

And while success in one season doesn't always guarantee success the next, many of those competitors figure to be as good as they were this season, if not better.

The Yankees, though they have pitching issues, figure to be strong again. In developing Chin-Mieng Wang and Melky Cabrera this season while still winning, the Yankees succeeded where the Red Sox failed. A team with a nucleus that includes Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi can't help but be competitive.

As for Toronto, general manager J.P. Ricciardi's off-season acquisitions of Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and B.J. Ryan were all winners, and chances are free-agent investment A.J. Burnett will improve. Couple that with ownership's stated intention to boost the payroll further -- by as much as $20 million -- and the Jays could be an even bigger threat next season.

In the A.L. Central, which may house three 90-win teams, the Tigers, Twins and White Sox all figure to be factors again. The Twins figure to lose Brad Radke to retirement, but rookies Francisco Liriano (if healthy), Matt Garza and Boof Bonser will benefit from additional experience while the Tigers foundation is young and improving.

Moreover, the Cleveland Indians, who went from a 92-win season to a sub-.500 campaign, could insert themselves into the divisional race without much difficulty.

In the West, the A's show no signs of a dropoff. The A's have enjoyed winning records in all but one of the last eight seasons and have made five trips to the post-season in the last seven years. The Angels, though disappointing, expect Bartolo Colon back and vow to find a bat to (finally) offer protection for Vladimir Guerrero.

On paper then, the Red Sox can't necessarily say that they're among the top half of teams in the A.L. heading into next season.

There are plenty of holes to fill for 2007. Among everyday position players, the Sox expect to have vacancies at shortstop, second base, right field, and possibly left field should they accommodate Manny Ramirez's trade request. Nearly half of their nine starters, then, are about to replaced.

Toss in the need for a new backup catcher, at least one starting pitcher and three more established relievers -- including a new closer -- and the Red Sox off-season shopping list is a daunting one.

Even if the Sox intend to spend even more freely than usual, only so many of their holes can be addressed through the free-agent market, which is notoriously thin this winter. The rest will need to be filled internally, but among the current holes, only second base (Dustin Pedroia) figures to be taken over by a player currently in the organization.

As for trades, the Sox don't have much of an inventory from which to maneuver -- unless they're suddently willing to move the young arms that they so zealously guarded at the trading deadline in July.

In short, beginning Monday, the Red Sox front office faces one of its most crucial off-seasons in recent memory.

"If they don't do this right this winter," warned one industry source recently, "it could get ugly in a hurry."

smcadam@projo.com / (401) 277-7340