01:00 AM EST on Wednesday, February 8, 2006

The Patriots have been, in the Bill Belichick era, a highly successful team on which the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

That will be evidenced again this weekend at the Pro Bowl, where the Pats had only two players named to the AFC squad -- Tom Brady and Richard Seymour -- neither of whom will be playing because of injuries.

The 2006 Red Sox, on the other hand, appear to be just the opposite -- a team on which the sum of the parts exceeds the value of the whole.

A statistical comparison -- you know that the stat geeks reign supreme at Fenway these days -- of the '06 Sox to last year's lineup, on a position-by-position basis, seems to indicate that this year's team packs less offensive power than the '05 bunch.

How much less isn't as obvious until you look at the lineup as a whole. Particularly in comparison to their archrivals in the A.L. East, the Bronx Bombers, winners of the last eight division titles.

Let's begin with a look at the infield, where there has been 100-percent turnover in the offseason.

Instead of Kevin Millar at first base (.272, 9 HR, 50 RBI, .355 on-base percentage, in 134 games), we have Kevin Youkilis (.278, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .400 OBP, in 44 games) and J.T. Snow, recently of the San Francisco Giants, for whom he batted .275, with 4 HR and 40 RBI, in 117 games. His OBP was .343.

Offensively, that's arguably a wash. And there's no question, at least when Snow's on the field, the position will be stronger defensively.

New second baseman Mark Loretta hit .280 in 105 games last season for San Diego, with 3 HR, 38 RBI, a .360 OBP, and 8 steals in 12 attempts in 105 games. Tony Graffanino, who took over from Mark Bellhorn last year in Boston, batted .309, with 7 HR, 38 RBI, and an OBP of .366. He had 7 steals in 9 tries. Give the offensive edge to Graffanino, but only slightly.

Edgar Renteria was a huge disappointment last season, especially defensively, where he led the league with 30 errors in 655 chances. Newcomer Alex Gonzalez, who had 16 errors in 604 chances for the Marlins, should be a marked improvement. At the plate, however, Gonzalez doesn't measure up, even to the sub-par Renteria of 2005.

Renteria batted .276 in 153 games, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 70 RBI, and an OBP of .335. He had 9 steals in 13 attempts and, although he struck out 100 times, he walked 55 -- a better ratio than Gonzalez's 31 walks and 81 strikeouts. Gonzalez batted .264 last year, with 30 doubles, 5 homers, 45 RBI, and on OBP of .319 in 130 games. He attempted 8 steals and was caught 3 times.

Clearly, the Red Sox are hoping the runs Gonzalez can save with his glove will make up for his lack of production at the plate.

At third base, there's no question Boston was better off with Bill Mueller, who hit .295 in 150 games, with 10 HR, 62 RBI, and a .369 OBP, than Mike Lowell, whose .236 average last year was a career-low. Lowell hit just 8 HR in 150 games for Florida, drove in 58 runs, and had an OBP of .298.

That brings us to center field, where Coco Crisp will be replacing the charismatic Johnny Damon, who'll be batting leadoff for the Yankees this season.

Crisp hit .300 last year to Damon's .316. Crisp had 42 doubles; Damon, 35. Crisp had 16 homers; Damon, 10. Crisp scored 86 runs and drove in 69. Damon scored 117 and had 75 RBI. Crisp played 145 games; Damon, 148. While Crisp stole 15 bases in 21 tries, Damon was 18-for-19.

In 2006, I'd rather have Damon, even though he can't throw at all. But Crisp, at 26, is just entering his prime, while -- dare we say it? -- Damon may be heading into the, ahem, twilight of his career.

While, at first glance, there may not seem to be a big dropoff offensively from a year ago -- and a significant improvement defensively -- take a longer look at this lineup: Crisp, Loretta, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez (assuming his trade demands aren't met), Jason Varitek (who clearly was fatigued down the stretch last season), Trot Nixon (who plays only against right-handed pitching), Lowell, Snow, and Gonzalez.

That's an easier batting order to pitch through than last year's -- a shortcoming the Sox hope to overcome with better pitching and defense. And the pitching should be better, now that '04 ace and World Series hero Curt Schilling is healthy again, and if a reliable closer can be found. I'm not optimistic about either Keith Foulke or 40-year-old Mike Timlin handling that job, which may wind up in the hands of either Jonathan Papelbon, who I'd rather see in the rotation, or 22-year-old flamethrower Craig Hansen.

Where the 2006 Boston batting order really suffers in comparison, however, is not so much to last year's team as to this year's Yankees, who'll roll out a modern-day Murderer's Row of Damon, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui, Jason Giambi, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, and Robinson Cano.

There are legitimate questions about New York's pitching staff, with Randy Johnson (42) and Mike Mussina (37) getting on in years, Carl Pavano and Jarrett Wright coming off injuries, and Chien-Ming Wang, Shawn Chacon, and Aaron Small having to prove that their performances last year weren't flukes.

But it's not as if the Yankees starters will have to hold opponents under four runs very often, and the bullpen is well-stocked, with Tanyon Sturtze, Mike Myers, Kyle Farnsworth, and incomparable closer Mariano Rivera.

There are some who think the Sox will be improved over a year ago. But that's not what the numbers, or my instincts, tell me.

jdonalds@projo.com / (401) 277-7340