01:00 AM EST on Sunday, November 27, 2005

Source: B.J. Ryan agrees to $47-million, five-year contract with Blue Jays

-- Associated Press, Nov. 25

Five years? For a relief pitcher? From a team run by Moneyball acolyte J.P. Ricciardi?

To what alternate universe have we been transported?

Bright lights, big contract attract Billy Wagner -- Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 23

Can't speak with any certainty about how bright the lights are, but it's safe to say the contract being offered by the Mets is real big. Try $30 million for three years, with a $10 million option for the fourth year that's vested if Wagner finishes 60 games in Year Three.

Low supply, high demand and a lot of jittery GMs. It all adds up to "some very bad contracts" about to be signed this offseason -- Peter Gammons, ESPN Insider, Nov. 12

And so it's begun. After several years of relative sanity on the baseball-salary front, sparked at least in part by a profitable labor agreement that's enabled the industry to regain its financial footing, the perfect storm is brewing: A number of teams with money to spend. A thin free-agent market. A true dearth of what everyone needs (pitching). It's about to hit, and it's not going to be pretty.

Or maybe it's safe to say it's already here. It certainly is if -- at the very beginning of the process, before the market has even had a chance to escalate -- a mid-level team like the Blue Jays is waving five years and $47 million at a closer.

So what does it mean?

It means fair-to-middlin' free-agent starters like A.J. Burnett and Matt Morris and Kevin Millwood are going to become wealthy beyond their wildest dreams.

It means those in the tier of starters below them -- Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson, Brian Moehler -- are going to hit the jackpot, as well.

It means salaries for all players are going to rise throughout baseball.

And it means that next year, and for the next several years to come, fans and media alike will be decrying the filet-mignon prices being paid for the ground-chuck performances most of these pitchers inevitably will deliver. (Hence the "it's not going to be pretty" remark.)

But it also means this is shaping up as a winter of opportunity for those with the foresight to recognize it.

The Red Sox foremost among them.

With the acquisition of Josh Beckett, the Red Sox find themselves with no fewer than eight

legitimate starting-pitcher candidates: Beckett, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Matt Clement, David Wells, Bronson Arroyo,sWade Millersand Jonathan Papelbon. While it's foolhardy to go into spring training with only five starters -- unforeseen injuries and unexpected ineffectiveness means five is never enough -- eight is simply too many.

So what the Red Sox need to do at next week's winter meetings is position themselves as the reasonably priced alternative to free-agent insanity. Just about everyone needs starting pitching, which means the market for the Millwoods and Burnetts is going to explode. The Sox have to be ready to exploit that market.

Don't want to spend what could be as much as $12 million a year on Kevin Millwood? How about Matt Clement, who'll only cost $19.25 million over the next two seasons?

Not interested in paying $6 million-$8 million on someone like Paul Byrd? May we interest you in Bronson Arroyo, who's only in position to command about $4 million?

Are you seriously thinking about rolling the dice on Jason Johnson or Brian Moehler? Why not Wade Miller, recuperating from surgery, yes, but a proven 15-game winner when healthy who can be had for somewhere between $3 million and $4 million?

The Sox aren't going to trade Beckett, Schilling, Papelbon or Wakefield. Wells has limited market value because of his age and his stated preference for playing on the West Coast. But they certainly could find a taker for Clement, Arroyo or Miller. The return could be substantial, too, depending how desperate their trade partner is for pitching.

If so, they could attack their remaining holes -- the bullpen, second base (if Friday's remarks by front-office executive Bill Lajoie are any indication, the Sox aren't ready to hand the position to Dustin Pedroia just yet), a backup outfielder, maybe even a center fielder if they can't retainsJohnny Damons-- via the trade route. They won't have to invest in the free-agent pool . . . which, as we said, is liable to get more and more expensive as the top talent, such as Ryan and Wagner and perhaps Damon, sign outrageous contracts.

And if they decide they have to trade Manny Ramirez, as well, then they go to Dallas and the winter meetings with a) the best available hitter and b) quality starting pitching as their trade bait. With proper execution, that should net them plenty of talent -- and reasonably priced talent -- in return.

It's shaping up as a crazy winter, no question. Baseball's financial foundations are about to be rocked by some of the contracts that will be signed over the next few weeks.

But if the Red Sox play their cards right, they can emerge from the craziness with a team that's younger, cheaper . . . and better.

Art Martone is the sports editor of the Providence Journal. He can be reached via e-mail at amartone@projo.com