01:00 AM EDT on Thursday, October 14, 2004

NEW YORK -- So much for the best-laid plans of mice, men and the Red Sox.

Fully 11 months ago, the Red Sox drew up a blueprint to get to the World Series, and, by extension, get past the New York Yankees. They traded for Curt Schilling and granted him a two-year contract extension, figuring that two front-line pitchers rather than one would give the Red Sox twice the chance of beating the Yankees.

Even when the Red Sox finished the regular season three games behind the Yankees and had to qualify for the post-season as the American League wild card, the plan seemed sound.

In a seven-game series, the Sox could use Schilling and Pedro Martinez four times. If they never got a victory from their other starters, the twin aces could propel the Sox to the pennant and beyond.

But there are things that can't be controlled in sports, and injuries top that list. Schilling injured his ankle Sept. 21, further aggravated it Game 1 of the Division Series, and was totally ineffective Tuesday night in an abbreviated start. Now, he may not pitch again until next April.

Call it fate, bad luck, or a bad break. Whatever you call it, the Red Sox are in trouble.

Schilling was going to be the X-factor, the man with the post-season chops to shut down the Yankees, the pitcher who would lighten the load from Martinez's slim frame. His injured ankle, however, may put the Red Sox right back where they were in past post-seasons, hoping that Martinez is near-perfect and somehow, a couple of other starters are good enough.

That's not a blueprint; it's a roll of the dice.

"If we're not able to overcome some adversity," said manager Terry Francona, "and whether it's Schill getting beat in Game 1, if that's all it ends up being, which we're hopeful; or it ends up being more than that. If we're not able to overcome it, we're not a good-enough team.

"I don't think anybody in that clubhouse, including myself, thinks that's the case."

This isn't the first onset of injury news to hit the Red Sox.

"This is the same bunch of guys who lost their starting right fielder and starting shortstop (for nearly half the season) in spring training," noted general manager Theo Epstein. "We can win this series with Curt and we can win this series without Curt. It's a greater challenge without him. But we battled them down to the last out last year, and we had John Burkett (in the rotation instead of Schilling)."

In truth, if Schilling isn't cleared for Game 5, Derek Lowe is capable of pitching well and winning in the post-season. But he lacks Schilling's October cachet. Until Tuesday, Schilling was 6-1 with a 1.74 career ERA in the post-season. He had been to the World Series twice -- in 1993 with the Phillies and in 2001 with the Diamondbacks. And, of course, he was the MVP of Arizona's upset of the Yankees in that Series.

Schilling's team's record in post-season start against the Yankees: 3-0.

The Red Sox' record in post-season games started by Lowe against the Yankees: 0-2.

The Sox made it clear yesterday that they'll do nothing to jeopardize Schilling's health if he's not physically able. Similarly, Schilling has said he won't ask for the ball if he can't deliver more than he did in Game 1.

Just two games into the LCS, the Sox already find themselves at something of a crossroads. Without Schilling, it's difficult to construct a scenario in which they win their first World Series in 86 seasons; with a greatly-reduced Schilling, their chances aren't much better, if it all.

For six months, Schilling took the ball every five days, but it was all part of his Opening Act. The Main Event was to be October, when the games are the most meaningful and he's traditionally been at his best.

"I've been looking forward to this for a year," said a glum Schilling after his shelling Tuesday.

Now he may have to wait another one. Such are the vagaries of pro sports where a turned ankle can turn a season upside down.

"We'll do what we have to, to try to win games," Francona said. "That's part of competing and believing in what you're doing and believing in the people you do it with."

"We can still win this series," said Epstein. "That's our plan."

Just not the original one.