11:02 AM EDT on Friday, October 1, 2004

BALTIMORE -- The Red Sox know they'll be in the playoffs. They know they won't be in as the division champions since a victory by the Yankees over the Twins last night rendered Boston the wild-card spot.

What they don't know -- at all -- is who their first-round opponent will be. They only know the options: Minnesota, Anaheim or Oakland.

Either Anaheim or Oakland will miss the playoffs and the other will be in as champion of the A.L. West. The Sox will play either the A.L. West champ or the Twins, depending on which club has the better record.

Should either the A's or Angels finish with the same record as the Twins, the Sox would play the West team, since both beat Minnesota in their season series.

A look the potential opponents, in order of preference for the Red Sox:

OAKLAND

Season series: Red Sox, 8-1.

Last fall, the Sox and A's hooked up in a memorable five-game ALDS that might have ended in a sweep if either Eric Byrnes or Miguel Tejada had run the bases properly. Instead, the Sox rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win three straight elimination games and move on to their epic ALCS matchup with the Yankees.

Since that infamous and controversial Game 3, the Red Sox have beaten the A's 11 of the last 12 times. Factor in that the A's have been bounced in the ALDS four years in a row, and it's clear the A's don't have much postseason karma going for them.

Even more troubling for the A's is that their perceived strength -- starting pitching -- has been thoroughly mediocre this season. The Big Three of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito have been injured and underachieving.

Many believe that Mulder is hiding some injury, and Zito is nowhere near the pitcher who won the A.L. Cy Young Award in 2002, and the rotation is fairly average. The case could be made that Rich Harden -- and not Mulder or Zito -- is the team's best starter after Hudson.

Oakland's lineup doesn't scare anyone, and the bullpen is thin and questionable, with Octavio Dotel the least dependable closer of any American League playoff contender.

Sure, the travel would be a bear, offering the possibility of four cross-country trips in eight days. But given their druthers, this is the team the Red Sox would prefer to face next Tuesday.

ANAHEIM

Season series: Red Sox, 5-4.

After the Angels won the first four meetings this year, the Red Sox came roaring back to win the final five -- sort of emblematic of the team's second-half turnaround.

The Red Sox aren't the same team they were in the first half, and frankly, neither are the Angels.

The Angels present a matchup problem on offense. Their aggressive approach at the plate and on the bases can give the Red Sox nightmares, as the first two-game set in May showed. The Angels put pressure on their opponents, put the ball in play and don't give up at-bats. Plus, the Sox don't generally respond to teams that have a "little ball" -- i.e. bunting, base stealing -- approach.

But the Angels' starting pitching is highly questionable. Is Bartolo Colon anyone's idea of a dependable No. 1? Is John Lackey? Kelvim Escobar?

Moreover, the Angels' once-deep bullpen is showing cracks. After a strong return at midseason, scouts say Brendan Donnelly has been far less effective. And closer Troy Percival is showing his age, his velocity having dipped. Of course, no one relishes facing a staff that includes Francisco Rodriguez.

Losing Jose Guillen -- suspended earlier in the week for insubordination -- will further hurt a lineup that already features a few banged-up and limited veterans (Darin Erstad, Garret Anderson).

One of the Angels' chief weapons is manager Mike Scioscia, who has the full support of his players -- especially in the wake of the Guillen fiasco -- and is one of the game's better strategists.

MINNESOTA

Season series: Minnesota, 4-2.

If the A's are the Red Sox' secret preference, then the Twins are the team they'd love to avoid.

Let us count the reasons why:

1) The Metrodome.

Ugly as it might be, this offers what may be the most distinct advantage in all of baseball. In the postseason, in particular, it's ear-splittingly loud -- ask the 1987 Cardinals and the 1991 Braves.

Plus, there's the baggy wall in right, and the teflon-coated roof, which gives every opposing outfielder difficulty -- especially Johnny Damon.

Finally, there's the artificial turf. Sure, the Red Sox are a more athletic team since The Trade, and their infield defense is vastly improved. But they're still not exactly slick in the field or on the bases, and this surface hardly plays to their strengths.

2) The bullpen.

The Twins might own the best and deepest bullpen in the A.L. Beyond first-year closer Joe Nathan, there's J.C. Romero and Juan Rincon in the set-up capacity.

Postseason games frequently turn -- for good -- in the seventh and eighth innings. The Twins are so well stocked in relief that they would have a considerable advantage against almost any postseason opponent in this department.

Little known fact: Minnesota went into last night with the lowest staff E.R.A. in the league.

3) Johan Santana.

If he hadn't gotten hurt in the ALDS, he alone might have derailed the Yankees for the Red Sox. As it is, Santana is, quite simply, baseball's best starting pitcher. In a five-game series, the Red Sox would have to face him twice -- no pleasant task.

Santana completely handcuffed the Red Sox on Aug. 1, the last time the teams met. And since then, he's gotten better.

The Twins plan to go with a three-man rotation, and No. 2 man Brad Radke is no slouch. But it's Santana who has the ability to carry a team deep into October, the way Orel Hershiser did in 1988.