01:00 AM EDT on Friday, September 24, 2004

BOSTON -- Sometime early next week, regardless of the outcome of their series with the New York Yankees this weekend, the Red Sox will almost certainly clinch a playoff spot.

Even with their 9-7 loss to Baltimore last night, the Sox still look like a team in the driver's seat with 10 games to go.

For now, however, that eventuality is considered forbidden subject matter within the Red Sox' clubhouse. But that doesn't mean that, privately, the Red Sox aren't already tinkering with plans for the postseason.

With that in mind, here's an educated guess about the makeup of the 25-man roster for the American League Division Series.

For the five-game series, which includes an off-day for travel between Games 2 and 3, the Sox have pretty much determined that only 10 pitchers will be necessary.

STARTERS (5): Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield and Bronson Arroyo.

Of course, the Red Sox will only use four starters, and one of the aforementioned will be shifted to long relief for the first round. A decision on the odd man out will likely go down to the final days of the regular season as the organization evaluates the performances of Lowe, Wakefield and Arroyo, none of whom is finishing the year strongly.

RELIEVERS (5): Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin,

Alan Embree, Mike Myers and Scott Williamson.

Foulke, Embree and Timlin, the team's most reliable relievers, are locks. Myers, who went into last night holding opposing lefties to a .156 batting average, is a virtual certainty to give the Sox a situational left-hander. Embree, though left-handed, is more of a set-up man than a one-batter lefty specialist.

The final spot will be between Williamson, Ramiro Mendoza and Curtis Leskanic. Mendoza has rebounded nicely to contribute over the last two months, but his role can be covered by the extra starter.

Leskanic has been valuable, in part because of his ability to pitch multiple innings. But his performance (3-2, 4.07 E.R.A.) has been only average.

Meanwhile, Williamson has the ability to make hitters swing and miss, something no other late-inning reliever offers. Opposing hitters are batting just .105 against him, and he's fanned 27 in 25 2/3 innings.

The one caveat here would be if Williamson shows any signs of soreness in the forearm and elbow, a condition that has already sent him to the DL twice this season.

The Sox will watch him carefully over the final 10 days and have him pitch back-to-back days to determine his physical readiness. If he's healthy, he's on the roster. If not, the choice is between Mendoza and Leskanic.

CATCHERS (2): Jason Varitek and Doug Mirabelli.

Nothing complicated here. The same backstop duo the Sox have utilized all season will handle the work in the postseason, too.

INFIELDERS (8): Doug Mientkiewicz, Kevin Millar, David Ortiz, Mark Bellhorn, Pokey Reese, Orlando Cabrera, Bill Mueller and Kevin Youkilis.

Mueller, Cabrera and Bellhorn comprise three-quarters of the starting infield, with Mientkiewicz and Millar splitting first base and Ortiz as the primary DH.

Reese, a standout at second or short, provides valuable depth and a late-inning defensive replacement.

Youkilis makes the roster as insurance against a flareup with Mueller's tricky knee, which sidelined him only last week and which required a surgical procedure earlier this season. His fine batting eye and plate discipline also make him a nice right-handed bat off the bench.

OUTFIELDERS (5): Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Gabe Kapler and Dave Roberts.

Ramirez and Damon are everyday outfield fixtures, and Nixon will start against right-handers. If the Sox should draw Oakland, which could start lefties in as many as four of the five games, Nixon's playing time could be greatly reduced. The likely choice in right against lefties would be Kapler.

Ellis Burks might have had a shot at making the roster had he come back earlier this month and gotten some at-bats. His power and presence could force opposing managers to make late-inning moves, but he's too big of a physical risk.

Instead, the final spot will go to Roberts, the team's fastest player, who offers terrific speed for pinch-running situations and a good glove in the outfield for late-inning substitutions.