01:00 AM EDT on Tuesday, August 31, 2004

Random Red Sox thoughts while wondering what the reaction would be -- both in Boston and New York -- if it had been the Yankees slicing six games off a 10 1/2-game Red Sox lead during a two-week stretch in August . . .

The Red Sox are 20-8 since The Trade, and Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz are receiving more than their fair share of the credit for the Sox' resurgence. Much more than their fair share.

For starters, Mientkiewicz has played in only 21 of 28 games since joining Boston . . . and in seven of those he was a late-inning defensive replacement. Cabrera's been a regular -- 27 games as a member of the Red Sox -- and he is hitting .270, but his offensive effectiveness is compromised by a sub-standard .291 on-base percentage.

To which their defenders will no doubt cry: What about their defense? That's why the Sox got them, isn't it?

Fair point, but is a tighter infield the main reason the Sox have blazed through August? Boston's team E.R.A. since July 31 (3.83) is lower than it was before then (4.12), and the number of unearned runs allowed has dropped dramatically. But the Sox are also hitting for a higher average (.280 before, .296 after) and scoring more runs per game (5.63 before, 6.07 after).

It's far more likely the Sox are winning because they're both scoring more, and allowing fewer, runs. Cabrera and Mientkiewicz are certainly helping with the latter, but they haven't had much to do with the former.

Who has? Start with Jason Varitek, who's hit .426

with 5 homers and 20 RBI since July 31. And Bill Mueller, who's at .355 with a .439 on-base percentage and a .505 slugging percentage. Fact is, except for David Ortiz (.250), every Red Sox hitter has either more or less maintained his previous productivity or stepped it up a notch in the last 28 games. And even Ortiz has 6 homers and 21 RBI since July 31.

The danger in baseball -- and in life -- is seeking simple answers to complex questions. The question of "Why are the Red Sox playing so well?" may not be particularly complex, but the answer isn't as simple as "They traded for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz."

When you score more runs and allow fewer runs, you win. The Sox have picked up the pace in all phases of the game, not just defense.

If you insist on finding a simple answer, though, try this one: They were due. As Gabe Kapler said a month ago, the Red Sox are a team "that can turn around and win 18 out of 21." And they finally did.

Or the simplest -- and probably most accurate -- answer: A 28-game schedule that, after two games against the Twins, consisted of seven matchups with the Devil Rays (who are 59-71), seven with the Tigers (60-70), six with the Blue Jays (54-77) and six with the White Sox (64-65). Beating those teams is no big trick.

It sure beats losing to them, though.

Which is not to say Cabrera and Mientkiewicz won't play more important, and perhaps even crucial, roles as the season winds down. Against quality opponents with good pitching, the type the Sox will be facing should they make the playoffs, runs will be tougher to come by. Pitching and defense step to the forefront in the postseason, and general manager Theo Epstein was right: The Sox' defense prior to July 31 -- with a physically compromised Nomar Garciaparra at shortstop and a collection of Tin Men at first base -- probably would have been a fatal flaw. The Trade turned a weakness into a strength.

Let's see what happens over the next nine days -- when the Sox play nine consecutive games against the Angels, Rangers and A's, good teams in the middle of the playoff hunt -- before we start thinking about the playoffs, though.

And, again, just be thankful it's been the Red Sox taking huge bites out of the Yankees' first-place lead, and not the other way around. Because if the roles were reversed, and the thought-to-be-buried Yanks were marching closer to first place, what would life be like around here? Think you'd be hearing the words "curse" a few times? Think you'd be reminded of Babe Ruth and Bucky Dent and Bill Buckner once or twice? Think it would be a chance for Yankee fans to crow about their infinite superiority over the Sox, and for Sox fans to wail about having their hearts broken yet again? The very thought is nauseating.

Yet there's almost no talk of the Sox completing the charge and taking down the Yankees . . . which would be regarded as a given if it was the Yanks who were the hunters and the Sox the hunted.

Why? Because -- most people believe -- the Red Sox never beat the Yankees. It's not true, but it hasn't been true lately. And, besides, who needs the truth when you've got a stereotype to embrace?

A simple answer to a complex question.

Almost as simple as saying something won't happen because it's never happened before.