01:00 AM EDT on Tuesday, June 29, 2004

BY ART MARTONE
Journal Sports Editor

The excuses are there, if they choose to accept them.

The Red Sox played a large chunk of the season without Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon. They're playing as we speak without Bill Mueller and Ellis Burks. At the beginning of March, Byung-Hyun Kim and Ramiro Mendoza were expected to be important members of the pitching staff; as of today, they've worked a grand total of 12 2/3 innings this year in Boston.

Even with all that, the Sox are in more than decent shape. Their .568 winning percentage is third-best in the major leagues, and they currently lead the A.L. wild-card race.

So what you'd expect them to be saying these days is something along the lines of, "We're doing all right. Nothing to worry about. Once we get all our guys back and once we get hot and the Yankees cool off . . . "

Instead, Theo Epstein is taking a glass-is-half-empty approach.

"We've been playing .500 ball for two months, and that's a disappointment," the Red Sox' general manager said before Sunday's 12-3 win over the Phillies. "We haven't met our standards."

Epstein's frustration stems probably not so much from the standings, where the Sox sit 5 1/2 games in arrears of the Yankees as they head to the Bronx for a three-game series that begins tonight, as from a meandering three-week stretch of one step forward, two steps back. The Sox haven't lost more than two in a row since May 31-June 4, but they haven't won more than two in a row since June 6-8. It's the culmination of a period in which they've gone 25-25 in their last 50 games -- which, as Epstein points out, is nearly a third of the season playing at a .500 level.

What's truly frustrating is that, if you look at the stats, the Sox shouldn't be 5 1/2 games out. They should be in first place.

A team that's scored 400 runs and allowed 352, as the Yankees have, should have a record of 41-32. (Trust us, the statheads have a formula for this.) Instead, they're 47-26, six games better. The Sox are almost right where they should be for a team that's scored 404 runs and allowed 343. They should be 43-31;

they're actually 42-32.

Most baseball fans are unaware of things such as this, and many baseball people scoff at them. Not Epstein. He knows these numbers exist. He understands them. And, even though they'd fit snugly into the glass-is-half-full category (under the Yankees Are Playing Over Their Heads And Are Bound To Come Back To Earth sub-clause), he sees them as part of the problem, not part of a potential solution.

"We [have] scored more runs than the Yankees and allowed fewer runs than the Yankees. What's frustrating is our inefficiency," he said. "Right now, we're just not finding ways to win games."

"Inefficiency" doesn't begin to tell the story. In their last five wins, the Sox have won by scores of 12-3, 12-1, 9-2, 14-9 and 11-0, an average of 11.6 runs per game. Their last five losses? 9-2, 4-3, 4-2, 4-0 and 6-4, an average of 2.2 runs per game.

"That's got to change," Epstein said. "The Yankees are finding ways to win games and we're not."

Still, what was most noteworthy about Epstein's State of The Sox address on Sunday was not for the truths it contained but that he made it at all.

Fact is, they're really not in bad shape. They really have had injuries. There are reasons -- you can call them excuses if you like, but they're reasons nonetheless -- for their current state of affairs, not the least of which is that the Yankees have scorched their way to a 39-15 record since April 25. That's a .722 winning percentage, something the Yanks are highly unlikely to maintain the rest of the way. It would be very easy for Theo Epstein and the rest of the Red Sox to say, "We're doing all right. Nothing to worry about. Once we get all our guys back and once we get hot and the Yankees cool off . . . " Historically, that's exactly what the Sox usually do.

(Kevin Millar has even come up with the 2004 version of "Cowboy Up," for those who believe in business as usual. He calls it "Yee-yah!" And it goes like this: You extend your arms while pointing your index fingers, pull back hard with your elbows, and shout, "Yee-yah!"

But Epstein isn't saying "Yee-yah!" or even "Cowboy Up!" He's saying: "We still have high expectations and still believe in this group and still think we will turn things around. We will look for ways to improve inside and outside the organization, but it still falls on the [players] we have here to get it done."

Or, in other words, forget the excuses, forget the alibis, forget the catch phrases. These last 50 games are unacceptable, and we're in danger of falling too far behind the Yankees. You're accountable, guys. Get moving. Now.

Interesting talk from the general manager of a franchise that usually doesn't display that sort of urgency. Especially in June.