Boston Red Sox

Art Martone: Many reasons for Boston's hit-and-miss offense

01:00 AM EDT on Friday, May 14, 2004

They were fun to watch, that's for sure. The 2003 Red Sox may not have had the pitching -- for most of the year, anyway -- to keep any lead safe until the 27th out was recorded, but it didn't matter. Their offense was so overwhelming that there was virtually no hole from which they couldn't escape.

The catch, though, is that while clubbing the opposition into submission is always exciting, it's not always a recipe for ultimate success. Championship teams are usually well-rounded, and the Sox brass understood THEIR team needed to get as good at preventing runs as it was at scoring them.

Mission accomplished. As one of the accompanying charts shows, the 2004 Red Sox are allowing nearly a run-and-a-half less a game than they were at this time last year. (The statistics are through the first 34 games of the season; the Sox played No. 35 last night.)

So why, prior to last night, did they have fewer wins (20) than they had through the same period in 2003 (22)?

Because they're scoring less, as well. A lot less.

Check the chart. Their team batting average is nearly 20 points lower. Their per-game scoring is down by more than a run. There've been times when they've been able to crank up the offense in the late innings when trailing by a substantial margin -- like last night, and Friday against Kansas City -- but that's been the exception this year and not the rule.

The reasons aren't hard to find.

The Sox are finally paying the price for the season-to-date absences of Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon. Anybody can be replaced in the short term, and it was Nomar Who? and Trot What? when Boston burst from the starting gate with 15 wins in its first 21 games. But their replacements, Pokey Reese and Gabe Kapler, have done next-to-nothing offensively all season, and it's begun to take its toll.

While the difference between Mark Bellhorn and Todd Walker isn't as large as the average fan might suspect -- Bellhorn's OPS through 34 games was only 18 points lower than Walker's -- Bellhorn's offensive value is almost entirely derived from his ability to draw walks. He can set the table, in other words, but he can't clear it. And the Sox need table-clearers.

No one expected Bill Mueller to repeat as A.L. batting champion, yet no one expected to lose almost 300 points off his OPS through 34 games, either.

So they're scoring fewer runs. At the beginning of the year it didn't matter that much because their pitching was so strong. And, perhaps not coincidentally, they spent the first few weeks of the season playing a lot of teams that were either struggling offensively when they faced them (Yankees, Blue Jays) or aren't very good to begin with (Devil Rays). It's not surprising that Boston's problems began when they began playing teams that are swinging the bat well (Rangers, Indians), creating the need for the Sox themselves to score more runs.

It's a need that the Garciaparra/Nixon-less offense, further weighted down by a struggling Mueller, hasn't been able to match. At least not yet.

The good news is, these don't seem like long-term problems. Garciaparra and Nixon will return soon. Mueller should start hitting again. They may not light up the scoreboard as brightly as the '03 Sox -- even general manager Theo Epstein admitted during the offseason that he didn't expect to see that type of offensive firepower again this year -- but they should begin scoring enough to take advantage of the improved pitching. (Last night notwithstanding.)

The bad news is, Garciaparra and Nixon may still be weeks away from getting back in the lineup. Mueller is still stumbling around in the .250s. While the offense should get better, it may not get better right away.

And, if the last two weeks are any indication, neither may the Sox.

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