Score one for the stat geeks.
They caught a lot of grief in the offseason. "You've got to re-sign Cliff Floyd!" "How can you not even offer a contract to Brian Daubach?" "Rey Sanchez hit .286, for goodness sakes; whaddya mean he stinks?" "You better not even think of trading Shea Hillenbrand!!" Remember?
And the players they brought in!
"Kevin Millar? He hit 16 home runs last year. Let him go to Japan!" "This Bill Mueller character has never hit more than 10 home runs a year in his life!" "David Ortiz?? The Twins don't want him!!"
Seems kind of quaint now, doesn't it?
Fact is, first-year general manager Theo Epstein and his analytically minded front office staff -- the stat geeks in question -- knew exactly what they were doing last offseason. They got lucky in some instances (no one could have predicted Mueller would hit well enough to challenge for the batting title), but they were unlucky, too (Jeremy Giambi, their first and most prized acquisition, injured his shoulder in spring training and was useless all season). In the end, Epstein's goal -- to build a lineup that was strong from top to bottom -- was fulfilled. In spades.
Here are the offensive categories in which the Red Sox ranked first in the American League entering yesterday's games:
BATTING AVERAGE: .289 (second-best is Toronto, .279).
SLUGGING PERCENTAGE: .492 (Toronto, .455).
ON-BASE PERCENTAGE: .360 (Yankees, .356).
OPS (ON-BASE PLUS SLUGGING PERCENTAGE): .852 (Yankees, .807).
HITS: 1,650 (Toronto, 1,564).
RUNS: 956 (Toronto, 883).
RUNS BATTED IN: 927 (Toronto, 844).
TOTAL BASES: 2,803 (Toronto, 2,549).
DOUBLES: 370 (Toronto, 355).
INTENTIONAL WALKS: 61 (Yankees, 54).
And they're second in the league in home runs (234, to Texas' 238), walks (615, to the Yankees' 677) and triples (40, to Minnesota's 45).
Epstein and crew were able to a) see through the illusion of the triple-crown stats and identify hitters who actually put runs on the scoreboard, and b) avoid paying huge salaries to one or two Grade B, and even Grade B-Plus, hitters, which gave them the payroll flexibility to load up on lightly regarded but valuable veterans . . . such as Millar, Mueller, Ortiz and (offensively, at least) Todd Walker.
The real talent, of course, is in knowing that players such as Millar, Mueller, Ortiz and Walker have more value than most people realize. That value's easy to spot, if you know where to look.
Mueller, for instance, routinely posted on-base percentages between .380 and .400 during his days with the Giants. It's easy to overlook when you fixate on the single-digit numbers in the home-run column.
Millar's slugging percentages in Florida the last two years were .509 and .557. (The year before that, it was .498.) Yet traditionalists focused on the home-run and RBI totals -- 16 and 57 in 2002, 20 and 85 in 2001, 14 and 42 in 2000 -- and concluded that he's not much of a hitter . . . ignoring that he averaged only 131 games per year over those three seasons.
Ortiz showed flashes of promise in Minnesota and turned 27 this year, the age when many major-league players explode to the peak of their abilities. You can't count on that happening, and the Sox didn't; Giambi was originally ticketed for the role Ortiz wound up playing. Yet Ortiz stepped in when Giambi faltered and was everything the Sox had hoped Giambi would be . . . and more.
Conversely, talent is also in knowing that guys like Sanchez, who never walk, have no power and contribute nothing but singles, are offensive zeroes. That Hillenbrand, despite having more power and general hitting ability, isn't much better for the same reasons. That giving Daubach the $5 million or so he would have earned in arbitration is the height of fiscal insanity, since you can pay someone literally 1/10th that salary to get the same production. And that even someone like Floyd -- a very good (though not great) hitter, but in his 30s and injury-prone -- can do nothing but decline in the seasons to come . . . and thus isn't worth the four-year, $22 million deal he got from the Mets.
Finally, talent is having the gumption to stand by your convictions. There were lots of people screaming for the Sox to re-sign Floyd. Lots of people who thought (and think) Hillenbrand is a star in the making. Lots of people who loved Daubach, and who were ready to jump down Epstein's throat had the 2003 Sox faltered.
They never got the chance.
