07/17/2002

After games of June 6, the Red Sox were 40-17. They had a team batting average of .293 and were averaging 5.77 runs per game. Their team earned-run average was 3.62.

From June 7 to this morning, the Sox are 14-20. Care to guess what their team ERA is in those 34 games? Go ahead, think it over.

Give up?

It's 3.75.

That's right. The Red Sox' team ERA during this 34-game slide is less than 0.15 of a run higher than it was during their 57-game sprint to glory at the beginning of the season.

Their offense, on the other hand, has fallen off the table and shattered. In these 34 games -- even counting yesterday's nine-run explosion at Detroit -- the team batting average is .251. They're scoring 4.32 runs per game.

The Red Sox are a talk-show host's dream these days. Every piece of the team is being dissected by anxious and angry fans. We need another starter! The bullpen is too thin! What's with Grady Little's lineups? Why is he resting guys when they just had a three-day break for the All-Star Game? Did Wendell Kim teach Mike Cubbage how to coach third base?!? And on and on and on.

But the real problem couldn't be more obvious.

They've stopped hitting. Period.

And that's the main reason the Red Sox have gone from first place, 31/2 games ahead of the New York Yankees (which is what they were after the games of June 6) to second place, 21/2 games behind the Yanks (which is what they are after New York's game at Toronto last night).

With the exception of Jason Varitek and Trot Nixon -- and Rey Sanchez, although he's just come back from an injury and has batted only 21 times since June 6 -- this slump is team-wide. (See chart on Page D-3 for the grim details.) It's affected the top of the order, so there are no table-setters, and the middle of the order, so there are no table-clearers.

Look at the numbers. It's easy to see why they're scoring a run-and-a-half less per game than they were in the first 57 games. And if you watch the games, and you see how anxious these hitters have become and how much they're pressing -- Nomar Garciaparra and Shea Hillenbrand, in particular -- you can't help but reach the conclusion that this slump is becoming self-perpetuating.

And all the rest of it -- Ugueth Urbina's recent struggles, and the bullpen in general, and the increased amount of carping directed at Little -- is, to paraphrase Lt. Weinberg from the movie A Few Good Men, just a bunch of smoke-filled, coffee-house nonsense. They're not hitting. And if they're not hitting, they can't score runs. And if they can't score runs, they can't win. At least not at more than a .412 pace, which is what they've been doing since June 6. (If they played at a .412 pace all season, incidentally, they'd finish with a 66-96 record.)

So what can be done?

It seems they have two choices:

1. Play the waiting game. Wait for Manny Ramirez to get healthy. Wait for Garciaparra and Johnny Damon to start hitting again. Wait for -- or pray for -- Hillenbrand to escape the clutches of Bad Shea -- the Shea that treats a base-on-balls as a sign of defective manhood, and views it as an absolute moral imperative to flail at any delivery in the same zip code as home plate -- and somehow transform himself back into Good Shea, the Shea Hillenbrand of April and May who would take pitches, work the count, and cheerfully accept a walk if the pitcher won't give him a good pitch to hit. (For those unaware: Shea Hillenbrand hasn't drawn a base on balls since May 24.)

Or . . .

2. Trade for a hitter. A good hitter. A Jim Thome, rather than the current version of Mo Vaughn.

There's a wisdom in choosing No. 1. While there's a distinct possibility that Good Shea has disappeared, never to return, Ramirez and Garciaparra and Damon are going to hit better than they've been hitting for the last 34 games. When they do, the Red Sox will start scoring runs again. It stands to reason.

Of course, the same thing stood to reason in 2000 and 2001, too, and it never happened. Those Sox also ran into midseason difficulty scoring runs, and they never were able to kick their attack back into fourth gear.

It's the danger of having an offense so dependent on a handful of quality hitters. If they're injured or not at the very top of their games, the other hitters -- all of whom are secondary pieces -- are incapable of picking up the slack. In fact, they start pressing themselves . . . and the next thing you know, they're slumping, too.

There's time for patience, and a time for action. With the exception of a last-second trade for Dante Bichette in 2000, the Sox have been patient for 21/2 years with this basic lineup. It's time for action.

Make a trade. For a quality hitter.

Now.

Art Martone is sports editor of the Providence Journal. He can be reached via e-mail at amartone@projo.com