Ed Mazze

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September job outlook: Bright spots include information, health and business services and education

11:28 AM EDT on Wednesday, August 27, 2008

By Edward M. Mazze
Distinguished University Professor of Business Administration University of Rhode Island

When is the decline in jobs going to end? The state lost 1,700 jobs in July. This was the seventh straight month of job losses in Rhode Island. Rhode Island's unemployment rate was 7.7 percent, the highest rate since 1993. The rate may grow larger as we move through the rest of 2008. Since January, Rhode Island has lost jobs in almost every employment sector. From July 2007 to July 2008, Rhode Island jobs declined 13,000 according to the Rhode Island Department of Labor and Training with 10,200 jobs lost to date in 2008.

In the last twelve months most of the jobs created in the last six years have disappeared due to state and national economic events. The major reason for the loss of jobs in July was declines in employment in state government due to incentives offered to state employees to retire. It is too early to tell what the impact of these retirements will be on state services and how many individuals will need to be hired to replace those who left and at what cost. Many state agencies lost critical people responsible for the safety and education of Rhode Islanders.

There is a danger of just looking at unemployment figures as a measure of the economy because the unemployment rate does not include individuals who have dropped out of the workforce, namely, those not looking for a job anymore as well as the number of jobs available where there are not enough individuals with the necessary skills to fill these jobs.

More emphasis has to be placed on educating the workforce of the future in the state to attract and retain high paying jobs and to provide the skills needed to fill existing jobs. At the elementary and secondary education levels, Rhode Island ranks among the top states in dollars spent per student and in the bottom in results.

Information services, education and health services were the key employment sectors that had a significant gain from 2007 to 2008. We need to build the state's financial services and technology sectors to offset the state's dependence on lower paying employment sectors so that there are jobs for college graduates in the future. We also need to support and attract service oriented firms, the "backbone" of the state's economy as manufacturing continues to decrease as an employment sector.

An economic forecast prepared by me in May 2008 estimated that 400 new jobs a month will be created in 2009 with major increases in employment sectors such as information, professional and business services, education and health services and leisure and hospitality. As a result of current economic events, the forecast will be revised in November 2008 to reflect changes taking place in the financial markets, the cost of energy, the housing market, consumer and business confidence, changes in the state's budget as a result of the revenue projection meeting in late Fall and the state's shortfall from the current budget target.

Based on the number of elementary and secondary schools in a state with a little over 1 million population, Rhode Island should be well-positioned to prepare the worker of the future. Rhode Island currently has 304 public schools.

There were 80 elementary and secondary schools that did not make adequate yearly progress in 2007-08 according to the Rhode Island Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. The schools are in Chariho, Central Fall, Cranston, Coventry, Cumberland, East Providence, Johnston, Newport, North Providence, Pawtucket, Portsmouth, Providence, South Kingstown, Tiverton, Warwick, West Warwick and Woonsocket.

There are five districts in a watch status and 10 districts in an intervention status with four of these districts in this intervention status for six and seven years. To determine whether a school district meets adequate yearly progress, the department evaluates elementary schools as a group, middle schools as a group and high schools as a group. For each level of school to show progress, no child left behind accountability targets must be met. If a district misses adequate yearly progress at all three levels or two levels, the district as a whole does not meet the accountability targets.

Rhode Island has developed an assessment system to determine whether students meet the standards appropriate for their grade in school in partnership with New Hampshire and Vermont. Assessments are done at various grade levels in English language arts and mathematics, reading and writing, and science. Science assessments are not used in the determination of school-performance classifications.

In 2007-08, 82 percent of elementary schools met all no child left behind targets as compared to 88 percent in 2006-07; 72 percent of middle schools met all targets compared with 76 percent in 2006-07, and 46 percent of high schools met all targets compared to 60 percent in 2006-07. We are going in the wrong direction. This data, by itself, makes finding a job more difficult for the poorly prepared individual and for the employer looking for a potential employee with the appropriate skills.

How can we bring education and workforce development in line with each other? We need more accountability for dollars spent and on future investments. We are too small a state in population and geography to spend the amount of money for the management of education in over thirty schools districts with numerous union contracts when a state our size should have no more than five school districts and a state-wide union contract. The savings in dollars on administration and labor negotiations if placed back into the education of students should result in more progress in achieving targets.

In districts that are not making adequate progress in preparing students, we need to look at new ways of delivering education whether it is smaller schools or a voucher system. We also need to replace individuals holding key positions in the Department who retired and were responsible for working with school districts in improving their performance. We need a curriculum that teaches students how to live and how to earn a living. Proficiency in English language arts, mathematics, reading, writing and science are critical.

However, students also need to be proficient in personal finance, ethics, business technology and the development of a work ethic. In looking at the demographic profile of Rhode Island, tomorrow's entrepreneurs will be coming from the minority populations and women who are graduating now from Rhode Island high schools and colleges and universities. We need to give these young women and men a chance to succeed.

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