The Providence Journal Bob Breidenbach

America loves an underdog, which explains why 34 percent of more than 100,000 voters in a recent espn.com poll said that the Jacksonville Jaguars will upset the undefeated New England Patriots tonight in their AFC semifinal playoff game.

Those who chose the Jags point to their run game and the underdog aspect, with some comparing the Jaguars to the 2001 Patriots' postseason run, which ended with one of the biggest Super Bowl upsets of all time.

Is it possible? Of course, says Journal sports writer Shalise Manza Young.

Is it likely? Not really.

There's a reason New England went 16-0 in the regular season: It has one of the most talented rosters the league has seen, led by arguably the best quarterback of his -- or any -- generation. The Patriots are coming off a bye, they're at home, and their only goal is to win Super Bowl XLII on Feb. 3.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS THROW THE BALL

Two reasons why New England will throw a lot: The weather calls for light winds and no precipitation, and the Jaguars allowed 47 pass completions of 20 yards or more during the regular season and two more last week against Pittsburgh. Seven of those 47 went for touchdowns. The Patriots completed 57 passes of 20 yards or more to nine different receivers during the regular season, for 16 touchdowns. Of Randy Moss' record 23 touchdown receptions, nine were longer than 23 yards. But to pass a lot, Tom Brady will need plenty of protection. Guard Stephen Neal (shoulder) and Nick Kaczur (foot) sat out the season finale, but both are expected to play tonight. Blocking tight end Kyle Brady (foot), rested his injury over the final two weeks of the season and also is expected back. Jags' safeties Sammy Knight and Reggie Nelson are aggressive, and Nelson, like most rookies, is susceptible to biting on such a play. New England had the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL, averaging more than 295 yards per game, while the Jaguars had the No. 6 passing defense, allowing 213 YPG. Jacksonville was one of the better ball-hawking defenses in the league, getting 20 interceptions, but Brady was good at avoiding such mistakes, with eight picks in 578 pass attempts. Edge: Patriots

WHEN THE PATRIOTS RUN THE BALL

Laurence Maroney was excellent over the final weeks of the season when the weather dictated New England's offensive plans, with 59 carries for 306 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and four touchdowns. Maroney may also be part of the passing game. Although he had just four receptions this season, they averaged nearly 30 yards apiece. New England averaged 115 YPG rushing. Despite two mammoth interior defensive linemen in John Henderson and Grady Jackson, Jacksonville's run defense was 11th in the NFL, allowing 100 yards a game. The Jags also have a propensity for giving up big runs, with opponents recording 40 runs of 10+ yards in the regular season. Even.

WHEN THE JAGUARS THROW THE BALL

This is David Garrard's big test. He's 10-3 as a starter this season, but did not perform well in Pittsburgh last week. Garrard was just 9-for-21 for 140 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. He also was sacked four times. Still, he came up with the big play when it was needed, scrambling for a 32-yard pickup on fourth-and-2 in the closing minutes of the game. The Patriots will use multiple fronts and lots of movement to try to confuse Garrard. All-Pro corner Asante Samuel shines in the postseason — he has four playoff interceptions in the last two years (five games), three for touchdowns. The Jags' passing offense was 17th in the NFL, at 208 yards per game; New England's pass defense was sixth (190.1 YPG), with 19 interceptions. Edge: Patriots

WHEN THE JAGUARS RUN THE BALL

This is the strength of this team, but Jacksonville will have to keep the score close early to be able to use it. Pro Bowler Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for more than 1,800 yards and 4.5 yards per carry, giving Jacksonville the top rushing offense in the AFC. Even Garrard averaged 3.8 YPC. New England allowed 98.3 yards rushing per game, but that number jumped to 125 YPG over the final five games of the season. Edge: Jaguars

SPECIAL TEAMS

Both teams have above-average kick-returners. New England's Ellis Hobbs averaged 26 yards, while Jones-Drew picked up 26.2 yards. Thanks to the Pats' record-setting offense, opponents had myriad chances to return kicks. But the Pats allowed only 22 yards a return. Even.

COACHING

Bill Belichick is considered one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, and one of the big reasons is the way he prepares his teams in the postseason. New England is 8-2 under Belichick coming off a bye week. Each time the Patriots had a bye in the playoffs since Belichick took over, they went on to win the Super Bowl. His 13-3 career mark in the playoffs is second-best all-time behind Vince Lombardi, who was 9-1. Though Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio did a good job with his team this season, he is predictable — and New England typically excels against such coaches. because In its last playoff appearance, in 2005, Jacksonville traveled to New England and lost 28-3. However, Del Rio and the Jaguars did become the first team to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh twice in one season with their wild-card win last week. Edge: Patriots

INTANGIBLES

•TIME: 8 p.m.

•SITE: Gillette Stadium.

•TV: CBS (over-the-air Channel 12, Cox Channel 12, Cox HD Channel 701).

•ANNOUNCERS: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms.

•TEAM RECORDS: Patriots 16-0, Jaguars 12-5.

•THE LINE: Pats by 13 1/2.

smanza@projo.com