New England Patriots

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Playoff tiebreaker qualifiers not in Pats’ favor

08:19 AM EST on Wednesday, December 10, 2008

By MIKE McDERMOTT
Assistant Sports Editor

Now that the New England Patriots have escaped Seattle with a victory, they can focus on the Oakland Raiders, a team whose players were overheard laughing and joking after they were destroyed on national TV, 34-7, by the San Diego Chargers. While the Seahawks put forth a gallant effort Sunday, you can’t really expect the Raiders to do the same.

Assuming they get out of Oakland with a victory, the Patriots will play Arizona at home, a team that’s clinched its division and has virtually no chance of a first-round playoff bye. The Cardinals have already been exposed as a soft team on their previous trips East (against the Redskins, the Jets and Eagles), so you have to wonder how they’re going to perform in the cold of December in Foxboro, with little on the line. Then comes the Buffalo Bills, a team whose playoff hopes were essentially crushed last weekend in Toronto.

So the Patriots, who as everyone has heard by now have yet to win more than two games in a row this season, would seem to have an excellent chance of finishing the season with four straight wins, playing against teams that will have little motivation but pride and which have shown little of that commodity during much of the season.

The question is, will running the table and going 11-5 be enough to get New England into the playoffs?

To examine the question:

•There seems to be no chance of catching Indianapolis, with the Colts’ easy schedule and tiebreaker edge over the Patriots (thank you, Jabar Gaffney).

•The Baltimore Ravens, who are one game ahead of New England for the second wild-card spot, have back-to-back meetings coming with the Steelers (at home) and the Cowboys (on the road). They have a 7-3 conference record, against New England’s 5-5, at this point in the season. So the Patriots really need the Ravens to lose to both the Steelers and the Cowboys, especially since Baltimore’s final game is against the Jaguars, who have seemingly packed it in. And the Ravens are one of the hottest teams in the league, having won seven of their last eight games, and each of those seven by 10 points or more.

•That leaves a division win as the most promising possibility. The Patriots are now in a three-way tie for the division lead with the Jets and the Dolphins. New York is at home against Buffalo next week, while Miami hosts San Francisco; the Jets then travel to Seattle while the Dolphins visit Kansas City. Then the Jets host the Dolphins to close out the season.

Let’s assume there’s still a three-way tie at the top of the division entering Week 17, with all three teams at 10-5. Then let’s say the Pats beat the Bills to go to 11-5. If the Jets beat the Dolphins, they finish at 11-5, but they would win the division on the strength of their superior division record (they would be 5-1, compared with 4-2 for the Pats).

What if the Dolphins won? Well, the scenario here isn’t good for the Patriots, either. If Miami and New England finished tied atop the AFC East with identical 11-5 records, they would have the same division record and the same record in common games (both would be 9-3), so the fourth tie-breaker for the division title would be employed — conference record. And the edge would go to Miami, which would be 8-4 to the Pats’ 7-5.

So the most likely scenario for the Patriots to make the playoffs is for them to win all their remaining games, while both the Dolphins and the Jets each lose at least one of their final three. Alternatively, Baltimore could lose two of its final three. The odds remain tough, even after a gritty victory Sunday.

mmcdermo@projo.com

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