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Patriots-Dolphins analysis

01:00 AM EST on Sunday, November 23, 2008

BY SHALISE MANZA YOUNG

Over the years, the Patriots and Dolphins have always had a competitive rivalry, regardless of each team’s place in the standings. After being on opposite sides of the spectrum last year with New England posting a 16-0 regular season and Miami needing overtime to avoid an 0-16 mark, they’re both pretty similar this year, though for different reasons. Bill Parcells was brought on by the Dolphins to remake the club and has seen immediate results; the Pats, without Tom Brady, have struggled for consistency and have lost two games in which they had a clear edge.

Now, with both clubs in the thick of the division race, there’s a lot more on the line than bragging rights.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL: Though his effort came in a loss, Matt Cassel must be riding high after his performance against the Jets on Oct. 13. He made some great throws, used his feet to great results, and had New York on its heels for much of the second half. But he can’t do it alone: the Pats ground game was stymied last week, with the running backs totaling just 63 yards (Cassel was the leading rusher), which was in part because of the early hole New England found itself in. But when the Pats have been successful this year, it was with a balance of running and passing, and they’ll need that in Miami. Helping that will be Sammy Morris’ return. Morris had just a handful of carries last week, but has had no restrictions in practice this week. In four games with New England in which he got 16 or more carries, Morris has averaged 105 yards per. But the Dolphins are one of the best run defenses in the league, allowing 91 yards rushing per game. Jabar Gaffney had a big game last week, and was also one of the few bright spots the last time the Pats and Dolphins met.

Edge: Push

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL: Miami stunned the Patriots in September with their newly implemented Wildcat package, but rest assured they won’t take them by surprise this time around. But New England knows that the Dolphins only run 8 to 10 plays a game from the Wildcat, and Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Chad Pennington are a challenge without it. Pennington is his usual steady self, but he can be taken advantage of on third down: surprisingly, four of his five interceptions on the season come on third down, and his passer rating in that situation is nearly 30 points below his season mark (conversely, Cassel is one of the league’s best on third down). Brown and Williams are averaging just over four yards per carry, but both are capable of breaking big runs. New England’s run defense has been stout of late, provided that Ty Warren, who missed last week’s game with groin trouble, and Richard Seymour, slowed a bit this week with a toe issue, are on the line with Vince Wilfork.

Edge: Push

SPECIAL TEAMS: The place where New England has a significant edge. The Pats haven’t been as stingy in kickoff coverage in recent weeks and are allowing nearly 26 yards per return, but Dolphins return man Ted Ginn Jr. is picking up less than 21 yards per attempt. Miami really struggles in punt coverage: the unit has given up two punt-return touchdowns this season, and allows over 16 yards per. Ellis Hobbs is still dangerous on kickoff return, though it’s possible all his work is taking a toll on him, as his season average has slipped a couple of yards over the last couple of games.

Edge: New England

COACHING: Looking at the numbers for each of these teams on both sides of the ball, they’re remarkably similar, so this game will probably come down to execution and preparation. Bill Belichick knows how to motivate his troops, and he has plenty to throw at them this week: key division game, overcoming last week’s loss, responding to the September loss to Miami, Joey Porter’s mouth. First-year man Tony Sparano certainly has his players behind him, and the Dolphins have pulled out some close wins in recent weeks, though they were against Oakland and Seattle. This week is their first big test.

Edge: New England

smanza@projo.com

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