New England Patriots
Jim Donaldson: Patriots’ domination enamors gamblers
08:25 AM EST on Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Outside New England, the Patriots may have become the team America loves to hate.
But America’s bettors obviously still love them.
Especially when they run up the score.
Despite barely slipping past the Eagles as whopping, 24-point favorites Sunday night in Foxboro when they had to come from behind in the fourth quarter to pull out a 31-28 victory over a 5-5 Philadelphia team playing without its No. 1 quarterback, the Pats are favored by 20½ points — nearly three touchdowns — in their Monday night game in Baltimore against the Ravens.
If there’s ever been a bigger, Monday-night home underdog, I can’t think of one.
Over the years, home ’dogs on Monday night have been a profitable wager. Consequently, you seldom see a home team getting more than seven points in a Monday night game.
A bit of explanation is required here for those who are unacquainted with the economics of sports, ahem, investing.
Yes, the betting “line” — the number of points one team is favored over another — is determined by the oddsmakers in Las Vegas. But it’s not based on what they feel are the relative merits of one team in relation to its opponent. Instead, it’s based on public perception, on which team the nation’s sports fans — the bettors — believe is better.
To correct a common misconception: It doesn’t’ matter to bookies which team wins, as long as their “book” is balanced. Which is to say, approximately the same amount of money is wagered on each team.
For example, if you think the Patriots will beat Baltimore by at least 21 points, you’d put up $11 to win $10. A Ravens backer would put up his $11, hoping that, even if Baltimore doesn’t win, they’ll lose by 20 points or less.
Whatever happens, one guy loses $11, the other guy collects $10, and the bookmaker pockets the extra dollar, known as the “vigorish,” or “vig.”
Clearly, those who wager on NFL games are convinced that the Patriots’ struggles Sunday night against the heavily underdog Eagles were an aberration and are willing to overlook New England’s failure to “cover the spread.”
Despite being frequently favored by double-digit margins, the Pats are 9-2 “against the spread” this season while winning all 11 of their games. Until the Philly game, only the defending Super Bowl champion Colts had come within 17 points of beating New England, which leads the league in points scored (40.2 points per game) and has been trouncing opponents by an average score of 40-17.
There is no question that the Patriots have been dominating this season. The question is whether they can continue to do so.
The Eagles, blitzing frequently, got some hard hits on Pats’ QB Tom Brady and hurried him at times. He was unable to get the ball deep to Randy Moss, who came into the game with a league-high 16 TD catches, but was limited to five receptions, none longer than 11 yards.
To Brady’s credit, he threw the ball 54 times without an interception, completing 34, for 380 yards. He had just one TD pass, however — the first game this season he has not thrown for at least three.
Of greater concern should be the ease and consistency with which the Eagles’ Feeley, starting for the first time since the 2004 season, picked apart the New England defense.
Apparently, most people feel that won’t happen against the Ravens, who haven’t won since beating the Rams in mid-October. Baltimore has lost five in a row, including a 32-14 trouncing Sunday at San Diego. Prior to that, the Ravens lost at home in overtime to Cleveland, 33-30; were beaten in Baltimore by the Bengals, 21-7; were pummeled at Pittsburgh, 38-7; and lost at Buffalo, 19-14.
The Ravens’ only wins this season have come against losing teams — the Jets, Cardinals, 49ers, and Rams, who have a combined record of 12-32.
Pats coach Bill Belichick expects it to be a close game in Baltimore. Of course, he says that every week. While many NFL fans across the country have condemned the Patriots for supposedly running up the score, many more of them are rooting for — and expecting — the Pats to do so again Monday.
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