INDIANAPOLIS —You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re confident they’re going to beat the Colts here tonight in the AFC Championship Game.

You should be.

You know the Patriots always beat the Colts in the playoffs. They beat ’em in the AFC Championship Game in Foxboro three years ago. They beat ’em in the conference semifinals two years ago, also in Foxboro. When it counts the most, the Patriots can be counted on to beat the Colts. Death, taxes and New England beating Indianapolis in the playoffs — those are life’s only certainties.

You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re concerned that the Patriots are going to lose to the Colts here tonight in the AFC Championship Game.

You should be.

Once upon a time, the Patriots owned the Colts. Whether the game was in Foxboro, in Indianapolis, or on a sandlot, there never was any doubt that Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes would confuse Colts QB Peyton Manning, forcing him to throw interceptions, while Patriots QB Tom Brady would shred the Indianapolis defense with pinpoint passes.

Not anymore.

The Colts have beaten New England the last two times they’ve played. Both of those games were in Foxboro, where the Colts trounced the Patriots last year, 40-21, and then beat them again, convincingly, in November, 27-20.

New England’s aura of invincibility has been shattered. The Patriots’ mystique is in tatters. Now that the Colts have beaten the Patriots not once, but twice, in the last two years — both times on the road — they know they can beat ’em again, especially in Indianapolis.

You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re confident they’re going to beat the Colts.

Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Rosevelt Colvin and the rest of New England’s pass rushers are going to get in Manning’s face. Belichick, as he so often does, will get in Manning’s head. And where Manning wilts under pressure, Brady thrives on it, relishes it, lives for it. You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re concerned they’re going to lose to the Colts.

Brady threw four interceptions in the loss to Indianapolis two months ago. He had no touchdown passes. Nor did he look like his typical “Tom Terrific’” self last Sunday in San Diego, when, under constant pressure as the Chargers consistently sent five and six rushers, he threw three interceptions, and arguably should have had a couple more passes picked off. You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re confident they’re going to beat the Colts.

The Patriots never have lost an AFC Championship Game. They upset the Dolphins of Dan Marino and Don Shula in the Orange Bowl in ’85, when Raymond Berry was coaching in New England. The Patriots had lost 18 in a row in Miami, but they won that one in a rout, 31-14. With Bill Parcells at the helm, the Patriots beat Jacksonville in Foxboro in the AFC title game in ’96. Under Belichick, they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in both ’01 and ’04, and reined in the Colts, 24-14, in Foxboro in ’03. You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re concerned they’re going to lose to the Colts.

Suddenly, startlingly — and, if you’re a Patriots fan — disturbingly and distressingly, the Colts have learned how to play defense. Throughout the regular season, the Colts had as much success stopping the run as Marty Schottenheimer has had winning playoff games. But in playoff victories over Kansas City and Baltimore, both of which have strong running attacks, the Colts have allowed an average of just 63.5 yards rushing.

You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re confident they’re going to beat the Colts.

New England is 12-1 in postseason play in the Belichick-Brady Era, the only loss coming last year at Denver in the conference semifinals. They know what it takes to win. They find ways to win — as was evident last Sunday in San Diego. When it comes down to crunch time, the Patriots have the feeling they’ll make the play that will win the game, which leaves their opponents feeling very uncomfortable.

You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re concerned they’re going to lose to the Colts.

Although, so far in these playoffs, Manning has looked the way he usually looks against New England — he was intercepted three times by the Chiefs and twice by the Ravens, while throwing just one TD pass in two games — you know he’s too good to have three bad games in a row, especially with receivers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne operating against a depleted New England secondary.

You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re confident they’re going to beat the Colts.

Didn’t they beat them two years ago without Seymour and Ty Law, who both were sidelined by injuries? Didn’t that injury-riddled New England defense hold an Indianapolis team that was averaging 32.6 points a game to a field goal in a 20-3 win?

You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re concerned they’re going to lose to the Colts.

What if it comes down to a field goal? Doesn’t Indianapolis have the best clutch kicker in NFL history — Adam Vinatieri, who twice won Super Bowls with kicks in the final seconds when he was playing for the Pats?

Well, the Chargers game came down to a field-goal attempt at the end, and Pats rookie Stephen Gostkowski calmly booted it through from 31 yards.

You’re a Patriots fan, and you’re confident they’re going to beat the Colts here tonight in the AFC Championship Game.

You should be.

jdonalds@projo.com