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Patriots-Chiefs analysis

01:00 AM EDT on Sunday, September 7, 2008

As they awake this morning, members of the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs will be full of the optimism that comes with a new beginning. As every NFL coach and possibly every player has uttered at least once over the last week or so, the 32 teams in the league are 0-0 at the start of the season, all looking forward to see what the season brings, all brimming with hopeful thoughts that this is the year.

Once the sun has set, however, only one of these teams will be undefeated. Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs, it is highly unlikely that it will be them. New England may still have some lingering question marks, but there is no question that they are the stronger of the two teams who will arrive at Gillette Stadium this morning to kick off the 2008 season.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

In a nutshell, New England should be able to do just about what it wants on offense in this game. Might Tom Brady be a bit rusty having not seen any game action since Feb. 3? Sure. But he’s throwing to Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney against a cornerback unit that has two rookies among its top four players, including starter Brandon Flowers. Flowers could potentially be lined up against Moss for much of the afternoon, a thought that might have had the second-round pick losing sleep this week. The Chiefs’ defensive front four has a combined seven years of NFL experience, with rookie Glenn Dorsey starting opposite Pro Bowlers Logan Mankins and Dan Koppen. Laurence Maroney, LaMont Jordan and Sammy Morris will probably be running a lot toward that left side, as the Patriots try to overwhelm Dorsey in his first regular-season game. Maroney finished last season on a high note and wants to pick up right where he left off. It’s crazy to think that New England will be able to match the numbers it put up offensively last season throughout this year, but against a team that has so many defensive players essentially learning as they go, today’s Pats’ offense may look an awful lot like the Pats of 2007.

Edge: New England

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

Good luck, Brodie Croyle. The list of players who have lost the first time they faced a Bill Belichick defense is a long and distinguished one, and includes the likes of Dan Marino, Joe Montana and Peyton Manning. Croyle has some strong players at his disposal in Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe, but this will be just his seventh NFL start and he has yet to win a game. New England’s secondary remains a work in progress, and while the front seven looked shaky in the preseason, four of the Chiefs starting offensive linemen weren’t in that role last year. Their starting left tackle is rookie Branden Albert, who has the unenviable task of slowing down Richard Seymour and Adalius Thomas. Kansas City running back Larry Johnson collected 172 total yards (119 rushing) and a touchdown the last time these teams faced one another, but that was in 2005. Johnson is coming off a season-ending foot injury, and has averaged nearly 23 carries per game since 2005. The Patriots didn’t get too creative defensively during the preseason, so it will be interesting to see if the influence of new defensive assistant Dom Capers is on display today.

Edge: New England

SPECIAL TEAMS

On the one hand, New England gave up both a kickoff return touchdown and a punt return touchdown — on consecutive kicks, no less — to Philadelphia two weeks ago, but on the other hand, the Patriots had some healthy returns of their own during the exhibition slate from Matthew Slater and C.J. Jones. Kansas City rookie Dantrell Savage put up impressive return numbers in the preseason, but on coverage, the Chiefs allowed a 59-yard punt return touchdown and a healthy 27 yards per kickoff return. Stephen Gostkowski erased any questions that he may suffer a didn’t-get-the-chance-in-the-Super-Bowl hangover, and was a perfect 5-for-5 on preseason field goals, including a 53-yarder against Tampa Bay. Field goals are about the only thing that are the same whether in exhibition or regular season. Gostkowski has always been solid on kickoffs.

Edge: New England

COACHING

If the contest here were about who was more quotable, the Chiefs’ Herm Edwards would win hands down over Bill Belichick. But Edwards is leading a ship full of green sailors, from the quarterback on down, while Belichick is merely integrating a few fresh faces among his team’s more weathered ones. Belichick said this week that the Kansas City defense, under the direction of Gunther Cunningham for more than a decade, has remained the same, which means he probably knows what to expect. And while Chan Gailey is in his first season overseeing the Chiefs’ offense, he hasn’t altered his game plans much since his days as the Dolphins’ offensive coordinator in 2000-01.

Edge: New England

INTANGIBLES

The Patriots have not lost a regular-season home opener since 2001, the year before Gillette Stadium opened. They have also won 19 consecutive regular-season games, breaking their own record. And the Chiefs have not won any game of any kind since last Oct. 21, a span of 13 games. Is there really any more to say than that?

Edge: New England

smanza@projo.com

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