Although Tom Brady says he's feeling great after knee surgery, it's doubtful he'll be as mobile this season as he was in the past.

Journal photo / Mary Murphy

They are more than merely workouts, these sessions in which the Patriots are participating on the grass field in the southern shadow of Gillette Stadium.

They are, in the pretentious parlance of the National Football League, an Organized Team Activity.

Although, despite the lofty label, an OTA in May is almost as far removed from an actual NFL game as a friendly game of touch football with the guys in the neighborhood is from the Super Bowl, it's hard to watch Tom Brady and the boys play catch and not think: "Wow! They could be even better this year than in 2007!"

Brady was the best quarterback in the business when he was injured midway through the first quarter of the first game last season. He has had surgery to repair torn ligaments in his left knee, but insists he feels "as good as I could possibly feel."

Patriots fans feel not just good, but absolutely ecstatic, about the prospect of Brady once again throwing to the explosive Randy Moss and the elusive Wes Welker, who, entering their third seasons in New England, now know every nuance of the Patriots' intricate offense.

It requires a minimum of three defenders to cover those two receivers, which could leave the recently-acquired Joey Galloway 1-on-1 with a nickel or dime back. At 37, Galloway's best years are behind him, but he's still fast enough to get behind all but the best defensive backs.

Other targets for Brady include Greg Lewis, signed as a free agent from Philadelphia, and an array of tight ends -- Benjamin Watson and David Thomas, free agent Chris Baker, and Alex Smith, obtained in a trade with Tampa Bay.

The backfield has been strengthened by the addition of free agent Fred Taylor from Jacksonville, where he seven times surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in rushing. Laurence Maroney is back after shoulder surgery, determined to prove he is the big-time back the Patriots felt he was when they drafted him in the first round in 2006, and not a big-time disappointment. Sammy Morris led the team in rushing last season. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was undrafted last year as a rookie, but proved he could by counted on by rushing for a touchdown in four consecutive games, and running for 105 yards against the Bills on 26 carries. And then there's dependable veteran Kevin Faulk, who is particularly dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield, but also – even at the age of 32 – rushed for 507 yards last season, helping to pick up the slack created by Maroney's injury.

And then there's the offensive line – Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, and Nick Kaczur – which is entering its fourth season as a unit.

So there is ample reason for optimism as the Patriots approach the 2009 season.

But there also is need for realism.

Good as they're likely to be – and that could be very good, indeed – it's not realistic to expect the Pats to exceed the exceptional offensive numbers they racked up in 2007.

Let's begin with Brady.

He was nothing short of phenomenal two years ago, when he threw for an NFL-record 50 touchdowns as the Patriots racked up 589 points – also a league record – and went undefeated through 18 games, until Super Bowl XLII, when the Giants drove 83 yards in the closing minutes to spoil the Pats' perfect season.

Brady's protection broke down in that game, as the Giants' fearsome pass rush sacked him five times while holding New England to a season-low 14 points.

He has played only one half of one quarter since then.

Never the quickest of quarterbacks, Brady will be even less mobile this season, coming off his injury – at the age of 32 – and wearing a brace on his left knee for the first time in his career. Teams will be coming after him, knowing that the only way to beat New England is to pressure the quarterback. Given time – and Brady doesn't need much – as well as the receivers he has, he can pick a defense apart. So opposing rushers will be putting the pressure on.

Prior to his record-setting year, Brady never had thrown for more than 28 TDs in a season. So what's a realistic expectation for this year? Let's say something in the 30s.

Moss went from an NFL-record 23 TD receptions in 2007, with Brady throwing, to 11 last year, with Matt Cassel at QB. This season? Well, 17 was his previous career high, so that seems a reasonable number.

Welker has had two, highly-productive years in New England, following up his 112-catch campaign in 2007 with 111 last year. If he stays healthy, he should surpass the century mark again this season.

One reason that might not happen, though, is an improved running game, which would eat up the clock and result in less exposure for Brady. The potential is there, with Taylor and Maroney, along with Faulk, Morris, and Green-Ellis, for the Patriots to run effectively, although probably not spectacularly.

As for scoring points, let us remember that, after averaging 41.4 points through the first eight games of the '07 season – and never scoring less than 34 points in any of those games – the Pats averaged a shade under 32 points in the final eight, which included a 56-10 blowout of the Bills in Buffalo.

Then, in the playoffs, the Patriots dropped from 31 against Jacksonville, to 21 against San Diego, to just 14 against the Giants.

And, really, does even the most wild-eyed optimist think there's any chance of going 16-0 again?

It's OK to be optimistic about the New England offense. But let's be realistic, too. As good as it's likely to be, it's not likely to better than it was in 2007.

jdonalds@projo.com