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Analysis by Joe McDonald: Analysis by Joe McDonald

01:00 AM EST on Sunday, January 7, 2007

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

Tom Brady will need everything in his arsenal today. A combination of a solid running and passing game will be crucial if the Patriots are to have success. Rookie back Laurence Maroney had a solid first season and will need to rely on veteran Corey Dillon to lead the way in the playoffs. . . . Wide receiver Reche Caldwell has been Brady's main go-to guy, but expect the Pats' QB to spread the ball, especially to his tight ends. . . . The Jets finished the regular season with the 20th-ranked defense in the league, something New England can exploit. . . . New York was sixth best in the league for points allowed in the league.

ADVANTAGE: New England

WHEN NEW YORK HAS THE BALL

Quarterback Chad Pennington, this season's NFL Comeback Player of the Year, leads a dangerous offense. Despite New York finishing the season with the 25th-ranked offense, the Jets have the capabilities to do some serious damage. Pennington's main target, wide receiver Laveranues Coles, was highly productive this season. The seven-year pro finished with a career-best 91 receptions for 1,098 yards and six touchdowns. Fellow receiver Jerricho Cotchery had 82 catches for 961 yards and six touchdowns. Shutting that tandem down will be a key for New England's sixth-ranked defense, while Jets tight end Chris Baker followed Coles and Cotchery with a career-high 31 receptions for 300 yards, including four touchdowns. . . . Pennington should expect a lot of pressure and will need to rely on short passes to be effective. . . . New England has the second-best points allowed in the league.

ADVANTAGE: New York

SPECIAL TEAMS

Field position will be the deciding factor in this one. . . . New York Pro-Bowler Justin Miller has posted 46 kick returns for 1,304 yards (an average of 28.3 for the best in the league) with two touchdowns. The last time these two teams met, he had a 62-yarder on Nov. 12. . . . The Pats' Maroney will likely handle the majority of returns with veteran Kevin Faulk hampered by a knee injury. . . . New England has used three different punters this season, and the latest, Todd Sauerbrun, will only be playing in his third game today. New York punter Ben Graham posted a career-high 26 punts inside opponents' 20-yard line. . . . It's the playoffs, and field goals always seem to be the difference-maker. Jets second-year kicker Mike Nugent finished the season 24-for-27, while Patriots rookie Stephen Gostkowski drilled 20-of-26.

ADVANTAGE: New York

COACHING

Forget all the nonsense about handshakes, body language and mentor versus teacher. The Jets' Eric Mangini and the Pats' Bill Belichick will no doubt make today a worthy chess match. Because Mangini, the former Patriots defensive coordinator, knows the ins and outs of New England's postseason tactics, it will be interesting to see if Belichick mixes it up a little bit. The last time these two teams met, a 17-14 Jets victory, New York players said afterwards they really wanted to win it for their new coach. It should be much of the same today. However, that was the regular season and this is the time of year when Belichick shines.

ADVANTAGE: New England

INTANGIBLES

The Patriots are 8-1 at home in postseason history, and they have not lost a home playoff game in 28 years, dating back to Dec. 31, 1978 against the Houston Oilers. . . . Since the new FieldTurf has been installed at Gillette Stadium in mid-November, the Patriots have not lost at home. In fact, Brady is 22-1 in his career when playing on the fake stuff. . . . New England will be without veteran safety Rodney Harrison, who strained his MCL last week in Tennessee. . . . The spring-like temperatures slated for today will help both teams.

ADVANTAGE: New England

jmcdonal@projo.com / (401) 277-7340

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