01:00 AM EDT on Friday, April 28, 2006

"You don't know. You really don't know. You may think you know, but you don't know. And you never will."

-- Jim Mora Sr., when he was coaching the New Orleans Saints

The NFL Draft makes me laugh.

No, wait, that's not right. I take the NFL Draft very seriously. It's the NFL Draft "experts" who make me laugh.

Jim Mora Sr. wasn't talking about the NFL Draft when he made his oft-quoted comment. But he certainly could have been.

The draft gurus think they know. But they don't.

Not even the NFL personnel guys, who spend countless hours analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of prospective picks, know. Not really.

If they did, then how would Tom Brady last until the sixth round? Why would the 49ers -- the team Brady, growing up as a kid in nearby San Mateo, dreamed of playing for -- bypass him in the third round in 2000 in favor of Giovanni Carmazzi of Hofstra?

And how would Ryan Leaf be selected with the second overall pick in 1998 -- after the Chargers traded their first- and second-round choices that year, as well as their first-round pick in 1999, along with two players, to Arizona in order to move up to take him?

If the experts really knew, why would the Patriots have traded the 16th pick in the 1985 draft to San Francisco, which then used it to take a wide receiver out of Mississippi Valley State named Jerry Rice?

How could it be that, in 1983, five quarterbacks were drafted ahead of Dan Marino in the first round? John Elway and Jim Kelly, OK, that's understandable. But Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien -- how do you explain that?

So I have to laugh when media pundits pontificate about which picks were good, and which were bad, and then, after the draft is over, evaluate, grade, and rank each team's selections.

They think they know. But they don't know. And they never will.

Everybody wanted Kenneth Sims when the Patriots made him the first overall pick in 1982. Everybody thought the Texas All-American would be a perennial Pro Bowl selection. Nobody was saying that about Richard Seymour when the Pats took him with the sixth overall choice in 2001.

Not only was Brett Favre drafted in the second round by Atlanta in 1991, but the Falcons traded him to the Packers the following year because they already had Chris Miller. And Joe Montana, arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history, wasn't drafted until the third round by San Francisco in 1979.

The list of outrageous oversights and egregious errors in the draft runs much longer than tomorrow's first round.

So how can you take with anything less than an entire shaker of salt the pearls of wisdom from the pundits who pretend to know which teams drafted well and which picked poorly?

The three most talked-about players in this year's draft are USC running back Reggie Bush and quarterbacks Matt Leinart, Bush's teammate with the Trojans, and Vince Young of Texas.

I saw Bush and Leinart play in person, and watched on TV as Young rallied the Longhorns past the Trojans in the BCS championship game.

I think Bush is special. Against Notre Dame, in a game the Trojans pulled out with a long drive in the closing minutes, Bush made two touchdown runs that were truly spectacular, displaying ultra-quick cutting ability and breakaway speed.

I don't think either Leinart or Young is anything special. Leinart will be a starter for somebody. And could be a pretty good one. But I don't think he'll be a great one.

As for Young, a big part of his success at Texas was the threat he posed as a runner. At that, he's more like Daunte Culpepper and Steve McNair than Michael Vick. But whereas McNair and Culpepper also are very good passers, Young has a quirky throwing motion.

Regarding questions raised about his intelligence, no one who has watched him play would question his decision-making on the field. Young consistently found the open man and, when no one was open, would take off and run for a gain. He is an extremely capable field general, leaving no doubt about his football smarts.

There are doubts, however, about his ball-handling skills since he operated out of the shotgun at Texas. How well he'll do playing under center and whether he can effectively execute play-action fakes are legitimate questions, as well as how well he'll find receivers while adapting to three-step and five-step drops.

So I'd take Leinart over Young, but I wouldn't hold out hope that either will be the next Brady. As for Bush, he could be very, very good.

But I'll be the first to admit that I don't really know.

jdonalds@projo.com / (401) 277-7340