01:00 AM EST on Tuesday, November 16, 2004

BY TOM E. CURRAN
Journal Sports Writer

FOXBORO -- Networks could save a lot of money if they'd throw Shannon Sharpe, Boomer Esiason and all the other noisemakers overboard and hire a guy whose words really resonate when it comes to assessing the NFL:

Forrest Gump.

Gumpian philosophy clearly states, "You never know what you're gonna get."

These words aren't delivered with the same gravitas as the blah, blah, blah you're served every week. They are, however, more accurate.

Only two current teams have proven they can -- over a long period -- avoid turning in wildly fluctuating performances and be consistently, predictably good. They are New England and Philadelphia.

In the other 30 locations around the league, who knows how a team will play?

Could be good. Could be bad. Could be disciplined as monks. Could be disorganized as a marauding band of 2-year-olds. Could be flat. Could be "geeked" (or pumped, hyped, jacked, stoked, ready, geared up, fired up, good to go or well motivated). Could be buying the game plan. Could be muttering about it. Could be focused. Could be scatter-brained. Could have guys hurt. Could have the full complement. Could win by a lot. Could get eviscerated before halftime.

Too many teams have too many players whose performances are affected by too many variables.

In Minnesota, the Vikings started 5-1 and are now 5-4, just because they're without Randy Moss. Last year, they started 6-0 and wound up missing the playoffs.

In Kansas City, the would-be Super Bowl hopefuls are 3-6 and capable of scoring 16 points one week against an OK defense on the road and then 56 against a good defense at home.

In New England, however, the variables don't overwhelm. Injuries come and injuries go, and the Patriots have won 25 of their last 28, 16 in a row at home, 10 of 11 on the road.

"You're always looking for consistency," said Patriots head coach Bill Belichick yesterday after his team's 29-6 win over Buffalo. "With each player, each unit, and collectively as a team. That's the key to being successful. It's a long season. There's a lot of games, a lot of snaps, a lot of circumstances that you go through. You play in a lot of different elements -- home and away, field conditions, you're ahead, you're behind, you're on your own 1-yard line, you're on their 1-yard line. There's so many things. To be able to consistently play at a high competitive level is what you're striving for."

It's what they're striving for in New Orleans even as their franchise quarterback, Aaron Brooks, throws it backwards in a panic one week, then leads a comeback and throws for 259 yards in a win the next week.

It's what they're striving for in Indianapolis, where Peyton Manning can throw five touchdown passes every other week until the playoffs, where he can throw four picks.

"Every single coach in the league that played yesterday is going to look at their film and say to their team -- regardless of how good they played -- that some plays could have been better," said Belichick. "If it's 99, you're still looking for 100. All these games are so close, they come down to just a handful of plays, and it's a handful of plays at key times. One mistake at the wrong time and that's it. You're never safe."

Not even before the game. Ask the Steelers about that. Before Sunday's game, brilliant linebacker Joey Porter gets himself disqualified 90 minutes before kickoff because he gets in a fight. Pittsburgh wins and moves to 8-1, but Porter's stupidity is evidence that the Steelers have maturity issues and that, while they may be good in November, they haven't proved they have the stomach, heart or head to be good in January. If you are Bill Cowher, do you know what you are going to get?

"In this league, every player has enough talent to go out there and make a play," said Belichick. "Every team has enough talent to go out there and look good for a while. But to be able to do it consistently, that's what our goal is."

It's clearly the goal of the Eagles, as well. They were 7-1 going into last night's game, and 51-22 over the last four seasons. They are reliable, prepared, and when they lose they generally lose to good teams. It is no coincidence that in 1999, Andy Reid's first year there, the Eagles went 5-11, just as the Patriots did in 2000, Belichick's first year here. Since then, his team has learned his expectation level. Players who cannot meet it are ushered out. Players who can are brought in. They assimilate or they are gone.

Linebacker Tedy Bruschi recalled the major injury issues the Patriots had last year. "At that point, we were looking around and saying, 'Who else do we have?' But there were a lot of guys who came in and stepped up. When we faced the same situation (this year), we remember that. It can be done, it has been done, and we expect (untested players) to do it.

"(Consistency) is tough to achieve, but you have to have good football players," Bruschi added. "(Players need to know), 'The reason you're in here is to help us eventually. If you're not playing now, eventually you'll have to do something. One of these days, your number will be called, and when it's called you better do something.' "

You look at the Patriots and Eagles, for whom wins and competitive play have become a given, and you wonder why it isn't so in more places.

Like Carolina, which went to the Super Bowl last year and now is 2-7. Or Tampa Bay, which won the Super Bowl in 2002 and has gone 10-15 since. Or Oakland, in the Super Bowl against Tampa and 7-18 since.

"You have to build to (consistency and dependability)," said Belichick. "What's consistent you have to keep consistent. What's inconsistent you have to try to improve. Either make changes or keep doing what you're doing until it gets better."

Later, Belichick added, "You never know until game time."

He says he doesn't know and, from his standpoint, he certainly believes that. But the Patriots have lost only once in their last 24 games, and that was thanks to five truly awful minutes of football in Pittsburgh a little more than two weeks ago. In New England, you don't know the outcome of each game until the end. But the level of play is a given.

When their teams take the field, Belichick and Andy Reid know better than any other coaches what they will get. For 30 other teams, anything is possible. And that's not what you're looking for.