DENVER -- Around the time we start wrestling with Christmas lights and hanging wreaths, we'll start to realize how important tonight's game in Denver really was.
Because this could either be the game that all but seals a postseason spot for the Patriots, or it could be the one that they will rue through December.
Look around the AFC. The parity we've seen for so many seasons isn't really evident right now. The third- and fourth-place teams in each division are further off the pace than usual.
On the surface, it looks like an eight-team race for six playoff spots -- New England and Miami in the East, Kansas City and Denver in the West, Baltimore and Cincinnati in the North, Indianapolis and Tennessee in the South.
But it can be narrowed further. It has to be assumed the 8-0 Chiefs are going to qualify. It also can be assumed that there will be no wild-card entry from the AFC North because the division is too mediocre. Only the division winner (Baltimore, most likely) will qualify.
So, with the West sewn up and the North sending a division winner but no wild card, it's really shaping up as a five-team race for
four spots -- New England (6-2), Miami (5-3), Indianapolis (7-1), Tennessee (6-2) and Denver (5-3).
The Patriots are currently in a position of strength. A win tonight stretches their lead in the AFC East to 2 1/2 games over 5-3 Miami (23-16 losers to Indy at home yesterday). Halfway into the season, the Pats are where they want to be. In first place.
But if the Pats slip up and fall into the wild-card melee, things could get sticky. And that's why tonight's game is vital.
Already, the Patriots have gained the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tennessee with a 38-30 win last month. Tonight, they can get that edge over Denver as well. They close this month at Indy against a team that looked very explosive on both sides of the ball yesterday. A sweep of those three games (four, if you include the overtime win over the Dolphins) is a lot to ask for.
Tonight is their best chance to tie up a loose end before it even gets noticed.
There is trepidation in Denver right now. In the Mile High City, they are talking about prematurely low temperatures, the specter of high home-heating costs and the Broncos.
Normally, the Broncos are the good news. Not right now. Denver has lost three of their last four. The mood around the Broncos, according to wide receiver Rod Smith, is "kind of tense, kind of tight."
That's because they are dealing with the unknown. Just as the Patriots did last season when they began 3-0 and then lost four straight, they don't know what kind of team they are. Not with Danny Kanell at quarterback and Jarious Jackson waiting in the wings. Not with John Mobley and Ian Gold out.
But Denver has a bye next week as well. And then its schedule gets terrifically easy with consecutive games against San Diego, Chicago and Oakland (which is officially a lower-tier team now that it's lost to Detroit).
Still, Shannon Sharpe told the Denver Post, "This is the week."
Maybe it is for them, maybe it isn't. But it absolutely is for the Patriots. They are playing a wounded team that has trouble scoring and they will be unleashing one of the league's least forgiving defenses on it.
After tonight, there is the bye then four straight nasty games, three of which promise to be exceptionally violent. Dallas, at Houston, Indianapolis, Miami.
And though it may not be realized right now, one way or another, tonight's game will have a massive impact on the rest of the Patriots' season.
