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Patriots-Jets pregame analysis

10:57 PM EST on Saturday, November 21, 2009

By SHALISE MANZA YOUNG
Journal Sports Writer

Oh, where to begin? This week’s edition of the Patriots-Jets rivalry seems to have more storylines than a midday soap opera — there’s Randy Moss versus Darelle Revis, cryin’ Rex Ryan, the shine dulling on the Sanchise, the additions of Wes Welker and Jerod Mayo after both missed the Week Two meeting, whether the Pats will have an Indy hangover… the list goes on.

Were this week’s game against the Panthers or Texans, both opponents still upcoming on New England’s schedule, perhaps there would be a concern that there would be leftover emotion from last Sunday’s game with the Colts. But this is Pats-Jets; there generally isn’t a need for things to be amped up, but after New York’s “Super Bowl” win in September and the way both players and coaches crowed about their supremacy postgame, there’s no need to worry about the Patriots’ mindset.

Should be a fun afternoon.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

Look for Tom Brady to have a much better outing than he had in Week Two. Brady was still getting his legs under him, and was without Welker, the ultimate safety valve who missed the first of two games with a knee injury. While Ryan’s defense is all about blitzing (and that’s likely in the game plan once again for Sunday). New England will be able to counter it with Welker, as well as screens to Kevin Faulk. One matchup everyone will be watching: Moss vs. Revis. For all the talk coming from both sides — Revis saying he shut down Moss in Week Two all by himself, Moss countering on Friday by saying that Revis had better back up his words — the fact is Moss hasn’t put up great numbers against New York over the last three games of the rivalry, with just nine catches for 72 total yards. Now, one of those games was Matt Cassel’s first-ever start and he caught an amazing touchdown to force OT in the second last year, but since he lit up the Jets in his first game as a Patriot in 2007, he’s been pretty quiet against them. New England could have and should have run the ball more against New York in Week Two, and while at first blush it’s easy to think that the Jets’ run defense has suffered without nose tackle Kris Jenkins, a look at the numbers since Jenkins was lost for the season shows they are fairly similar to those when Jenkins was on the field. One thing New England must do, and this is not a new thing: convert red zone chances into touchdowns. That was the Pats’ downfall in Week Two, and in Indy last week as well.

Edge: New England

WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL

Just as it’s easy to think that the loss of Jenkins on defense had a major effect, it’s doubly easy to believe that the loss of dynamic running back Leon Washington to a broken leg would have an impact on the Jets’ ground game. But Thomas Jones and rookie Shonn Greene have picked up the slack just fine, and the Jets are averaging an NFL-best 171 rushing yards per game. But that’s about the only thing going well on offense right now. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has been struggling mightily over the last six games, completing just 50 percent of his passes with 10 interceptions and five touchdowns. Ball security has been an issue for the Jets: in their five losses, their giveaway/takeaway ratio is minus-9. Receiver Braylon Edwards, whom New York acquired from Cleveland, has had minimal impact, though there’s no way of knowing how Sanchez’s issues have affected him. If New England can take away the run, something that will be tougher if Ty Warren misses his second straight game due to a right ankle injury, and force Sanchez to throw to his fairly mediocre receiving crew, it will be just fine. The Pats’ defense played very well for long stretches against Peyton Manning and the Colts last week, and Sanchez is nowhere close to Manning in terms of ability. The Pats will have Jerod Mayo for this game; he did not play in Week 2 due to a strained MCL suffered in the season opener.

Edge: New England

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is likely where the Jets are impacted most by the loss of Washington — on kickoff returns, he is always dangerous. Without him, they have had six different players return a kick, and they’re averaging just 17.7 yards per. Safety Jim Leonhard has handled punts respectably, but he may not play due to a thumb injury. Kicker Jay Feely has been good, connecting on 16 of 18 field-goal chances. The Patriots have also had several players try their hand at kick returns, though Matthew Slater did well against the Colts, picking up 27.3 yards per on three returns. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski had three more touchbacks against Indy, and continues his steady play, something that can’t really be said for punter Chris Hanson.

Edge: New England

COACHING

Rex Ryan is about to find out what so many other head coaches have before him: No one beats Bill Belichick the same way twice. Ryan and the Jets intimated this week that there wouldn’t be many changes this week from their September game plan against the Pats, and few teams adjust better than New England. That this is an AFC East game against their hated rival should be motivation enough, but add in the fact that New York has won the last two meetings and that the Pats got a harsh reminder that they need to play for 60 minutes — and not 56 or 57 — to seal wins, and Belichick has plenty of buttons to push with his team. Word is not just Jets players but coaches as well were crowing about their September win as the sides left the field, and New England has a long memory for such things. Ryan, who famously cried in front of his team on Monday, still has his players believing, but right now they need results. And for all the blitzing the Jets do, they have exactly as many sacks as New England: 16.

Edge: New England

INTANGIBLES

The Patriots have not lost back-to-back games in just over three years. …Tom Brady is 12-3 in his career against New York, with a 62.5 completion percentage, 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. …Brady has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of the Pats’ last four games, a personal best. Remarkably, last week was just the fourth of his 31 career 300-yard games that New England has lost. He is now 473 yards away from passing Drew Bledsoe as the franchise’s all-time passing leader…Randy Moss is 109 yards away from 1,000 for the season (his 891 is tops in the NFL), and will become just the second receiver in league history with 10 seasons of 1,000-plus yards when he gets there – Jerry Rice had 14 such seasons in his career…The game-time forecast calls for it to be 50 degrees and partly sunny in Foxboro.

Prediction: Patriots, 27-14

smanza@projo.com

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