The CIA, in a famously leaked report, concluded in 2005 that the European Union had about 15 years left. Then it would break up — back to the old borders between its constituent states, or to new ones. The reason: It has created an unsustainable welfare state. The best chance to begin the difficult work of dismantling this economic structure might have been the reform of Germany’s restrictive labor laws, but that opportunity passed with the election of its current divided government.

With birth rates way below replacement level in almost every state, another such chance is not likely. By 2025, the report continued, Europe’s Muslim population would double, and possibly triple to become about a third of the E.U.’s total population. In some states, such as the Netherlands, it could be far higher than that. Though the report didn’t say it, at such a point what has generally been called “European civilization” itself could become a memory.

So the recent festivities marking the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome, which established the European Community of six member states, later renamed the European Union, and now numbering 27 members, were, despite a performance of Beethoven’s Ode to Joy, rather gloomy. Yes, many of the problems facing Europe — generally very high taxes and sclerosis-inducing regulation — result from decisions of member states, and not the E.U. itself. Nonetheless, as the E.U. has adopted many of the trappings of a superstate such distinctions have become obscured.

Meanwhile, we should add that many aspects of daily life in Europe, with its superb public services, are much more pleasant than those in the generally harsher, relentlessly competitive and anomie-ridden U.S.

The E.U. had its beginnings in the post-war years as a free-trade zone, originally limited to coal and steel. Jean Monnet and Robert Shuman, of France, and Konrad Adenauer, of what was then called West Germany, saw a way to promote the revival of Europe’s war-ruined economies and ensure political liberty, all the while reducing the possibility of war.

In the second instance, the E.U. has succeeded admirably. The first half of the 20th Century saw two catastrophic world wars mostly fought in Europe. The second half was generally peaceful. A big exception: The wars that accompanied the breakup of the former Yugoslavia.

The Cold War placed Western Europe under the defense umbrella of the United States. The U.S. strategy succeeded in holding off and ultimately defeating the Stalinist system in the East, while protecting Western Europe’s political liberty and, by reducing the Continent’s need to pay for its own defense, helping make it rich. The lifting of tariffs within the E.U. was also essential in creating and maintaining prosperity there. This U.S.-supported geopolitical environment also subsidized Western Europe’s embrace of the welfare state and France’s attempt to maintain major-power status. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the addition of so many new member states have, of course, presented new opportunities and challenges.

Introduction of the single currency seven years ago removed exchange-rate uncertainties. The European Central Bank has imposed honest accounting on members, to the great benefit of Italy, particularly, but interest-rate policy between less developed states, such as Ireland and the former East Bloc, and highly developed states, such as France and Germany, remains problematic.

Over-zealous efforts by the E.U. to regulate and otherwise direct business have tended to slow the economy in the European Union, with consequent high unemployment rates in much of the union. Consider Airbus’s recent announcement that it would lay off 15,000 workers. This occurred simultaneously with the rollout of French-German consortium’s giant new flagship, the A-380 “superjumbo” jet. Even though Airbus receives generous government subsidies, its main competitor, America’s Boeing, is beating it in the global market. Some observers have concluded that this is because Boeing’s workforce is not limited by France’s 35-hour week. It may also be because Boeing is free to make business decisions based on its business. Airbus is far more constrained by political considerations.

The political and economic hurdles Europe faces, given changing demographics and its huge welfare-state constituency, may be insurmountable, at least in the context of its current democratic governments, and the choices in the years ahead will become ever more difficult. But the region will probably remain one of the most agreeable and humane places to live for a long while to come. So Happy 50th, E.U. We hope you make it to 65.