01:00 AM EDT on Monday, October 10, 2005

AFTER MONTHS of speculation, Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey announced that he would challenge U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee for the Republican nomination. Interestingly, amidst all the analysis of the race, the pundits have failed to identify the voting bloc likely to determine the outcome of the race: the College Republicans.

To understand why this traditionally apathetic voting bloc will play a key role in the race, it is important to examine the political landscape of Rhode Island.

The state is in the early stages of a Republican revolution, which may signal a long-term move to the right. Ironically, the heart of this conservative shift is actually occurring on college campuses, which have historically represented bastions of liberalism. With college Republicans highly mobilized, they will undoubtedly prove to be a decisive factor in the primary race, for three reasons.

First, Republicans on campus are, as a bloc, more conservative than Rhode Island Republicans in general. This can be linked to several factors: a backlash against political correctness on campus; higher degrees of religious activity; and the fact that many out-of-state students in Rhode Island are originally from more conservative states.

This ideological difference can already be seen by early reaction to Laffey's announcement. While the state and national Republican establishment is enraged by the idea of a challenge to Chafee, younger voters are more sympathetic to Laffey's populist campaign. In the primary, it is likely that voter turnout will be highest within the conservative Republican base.

Second, the dynamics of the race at hand are likely to inspire college students who do not normally engage in local politics. For starters, Senator Chafee, throughout his term in office, has made a string of highly controversial decisions. As the most moderate Republican in the Senate, Chafee voted against the war in Iraq, against the president's tax cuts, against a ban on partial-birth abortion, and even refused to support President Bush in the 2004 election, instead writing in Bush 41.

Despite the fact that Chafee did vote with the Republican leadership 70 percent of the time, Mayor Laffey is likely to tout his fiscally conservative record to attack Chafee from the right in a high-energy grassroots campaign.

Third, the nature of Rhode Island politics logically strengthens the influence of the College Republicans. With a population of roughly 1 million, Rhode Island has 12 college campuses, with over 50,000 undergraduates. This is all the more relevant in a state where only 11 percent of the voters are registered Republicans and only 30,000 voted in the last Republican primary.

Within the last few years, College Republican chapters have been founded and strengthened at every campus in the state. Conservatives are making significant headway in recruiting members via campus canvass, bringing in speakers, and writing for school newspapers. Just last spring, President Ruth Simmons, of Brown University, devoted the bulk of her State of the College address to the issue of intellectual diversity on campus, and pledged money to bring a more diverse body of speakers to Brown.

Moreover, the newly founded Rhode Island College Republican Federation has unified the College Republican chapters across the state, and is now a voting member in the Rhode Island Republican State Party. This College Republican activism in the state is in line with nationwide trends. In 2004, for example, there were more registered Republicans nationwide than registered Democrats.

Though these organizations are not likely to endorse either candidate, they will lead the effort to recruit, register, and transport young voters to the polls. A well-coordinated campus effort in a small primary has the potential to swing the race by several percentage points.

This in fact already happened in the 2004 Pennsylvania Senate primary between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey, which closely resembles the Rhode Island race. The Pennsylvania College Republican leadership's decision not to allow any College Republican chapter in the state to support challenger Toomey was a crucial factor in Specter's 1.7-percent margin of victory.

This campus phenomenon has not been lost on the candidates. Already, Mayor Laffey, a former College Republican himself, has made personal phone calls to every College Republican chairman in the state, encouraging them to take part in his campaign. Senator Chafee, in turn, is working with college students to start Chafee for Senate student groups on campus. Both have scheduled receptions and speaking engagements at campuses throughout the state.

In short, this race will represent the beginning of a new era in politics. As the days of political apathy and liberal dominance among college students wane, College Republicans are emerging as a prominent force in the political arena.

Pratik Chougule, a public-policy, history, and international-relations major at Brown University, is chairman of the Rhode Island College Republican Federation.