PROVIDENCE — Taking away the promise of 3-percent annual pension hikes for retired state workers and public school teachers could save taxpayers as much as $78.6 million next year, according to a just-completed financial analysis of one of Governor Carcieri’s pension-cutting proposals.

Making all but the most senior employees wait until age 65 before they can start drawing a pension could shave another $156.9 million off the annual pension bill paid by state and local taxpayers.

But in the long-awaited report the state’s actuarial consultants delivered to a pension study commission yesterday — that a key lawmaker tried to withhold from public view — they acknowledged the likelihood that any such sweeping change in retirement benefits would be met with a legal challenge by longtime public employees who have already “met the age and service requirements to retire.”

They acknowledged their projections do not take into account the market losses that took a 26-percent bite last year out of the investment portfolio that helps pay the cost of the defined-benefit pensions provided most Rhode Island public employees. With respect to how much taxpayers may have to pay next year, the actuaries at Gabriel Roeder Smith & Company wrote: “Readers should bear in mind that the contribution rates shown will doubtlessly have to be increased in the future because of these market losses.”

State workers and teachers here pay among the highest contribution rates in the country: 8.75 percent and 9.5 percent of their pay respectively, but taxpayers have been required to contribute more than twice that amount to provide these public employees with retirement benefits unavailable to most in the private sector.

The on-again, off-again commission chaired by Rep. Timothy Williamson, D-West Warwick, bubbled back to life in late August amid concerns over the shrinking state pension fund — and how the public employees counting on the fund are faring compared with private-sector workers seeing their 401(k) retirement portfolios slip away.

Over the objections of its three union members, the commission asked the state’s pension-financing consultant at that time to look at several alternatives to the state’s current “defined benefit” plan, including one that would require state workers and teachers to wait — as many in the private sector do — until they reach Social Security retirement age to begin collecting their pensions. But that was only a piece of what the commission discussed yesterday.

The commission, made up of legislators, a judge, a mayor, a state police lieutenant, the chief of staff to the state treasurer and several union leaders, was focused instead on various cost-of-living and retirement age proposals laid out in a Jan. 12 engagement letter.

Williamson refused to make the engagement letter public. He would not comment on how this January letter emerged from a commission that has not met since Aug. 27. He also refused to provide the media with copies of the report under discussion yesterday. The state’s Access to Public records law states: “Any documents submitted at a public meeting of a public body shall be deemed public.” But when asked why he was refusing to make the documents under discussion yesterday public, Williamson said: “No comment. Period.”

Later, after the meeting had gotten under way, he said he didn’t want the report to become public because it might scare workers.

But the Journal obtained a copy of the actuaries’ report which looks at Carcieri’s pension-cutting proposals — and alternatives.

Carcieri has proposed eliminating, for any state worker and teacher who does not retire by April 1, the 3-percent compounded COLAs currently promised all but the newest state employees when they retire. He is also proposing to establish a minimum retirement age of 59 for state employees and teachers to begin collecting pensions.

In anticipation of big savings over time, he is also proposing to slash by 75 percent the amount the state and local school districts contribute to the state pension fund during the final months of this year. The actuaries did not directly address the question: Are these steep cutbacks in contributions justified?

They looked instead at the potential savings to be had from eliminating COLAs entirely on July 1 for all future state pensioners, limiting them to the first $12,000 in pension payments or delaying their payment until the retiree turns at least 65 years old.

The first option promises the greatest savings, an opportunity to cut the state’s anticipated $147.8 million contribution for state employees alone next year by $32 million and also reduce the state’s “unfunded pension liability” to these past and present workers by $298.5 million. Measured by savings, no other option came close. Limiting cost-of-living to the first $12,000 promised a $27.6-million savings and a delayed payment, $13.2 million in savings.

Under a fourth option already in place for the state’s newest employees: the COLAs paid future retirees would be equal to the consumer price index for each year, up to a maximum of 3 percent. The potential savings: $5.8 million.

And finally, they looked at how much the state might save if its retirees had to wait until age 59 under one scenario ($8.8 million), and age 65 under another ($31.4 million), to start collecting a pension. As it stands, all but the newest state workers can retire at any age after 28 years on the job. Again, the savings drop sharply to a potential $4.8 million if newer workers only are made to wait until age 65. The potential savings are even greater on the teacher side.

Union leaders were aghast at the notion of “changing the rules” in the middle of the game for current employees. Michael Downey, president of Council 94, American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees, said any such talk of pension cuts should be limited to new employees, “not people who already were promised certain things and now turn their back to them.”

“Not only for our members but for the future of the Rhode Island economy, it’s good to have a good pension system and they should just leave it alone,” said Larry Purtill, president of the National Education Association of Rhode Island.

kgregg@projo.com