With Democratic candidate Sheldon Whitehouse last week (from left): Senators Patty Murray of Washington, Barbara Mikulski of Maryland, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, and Barbara Boxer of California.

The Providence Journal / Connie Grosch

As if anyone who follows American politics had the slightest doubt, along comes a new Brown University poll documenting that the contest between Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee and Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse is intensely competitive. Indeed, this survey has it deadlocked, and you have to wonder which candidate, using which strategy, is going to be able to break out.

In this Democratic state, where “Bush” is just short of a swear word, Whitehouse pounds away on the theme that to change America you have to wrest the Senate from GOP control, and Rhode Island can lead the way.

I can’t think of a better strategy for him. But what if it looks as though the Republicans will retain a majority? Might that not make it all the smarter to keep the personable Chafee? He often parts company with his party but tries to maintain decent relations with it — indeed, with Democrats as well — and claims this helps him produce for Rhode Island. He also says presidents come and go and control of Congress shifts back and forth, so it’s good to have at least one Republican in the delegation.

To win the Senate this time out, Democrats need to pick up six seats.

Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C., puts the chances of their pulling it off at “about 50 percent.” A gain of four or five looks likely, she tells me, but six is not an easy proposition.

Meanwhile, her boss, Charlie Cook, writes in CongressDaily AM that “the Senate still looks much more likely to stay Republican than switch.”

Last week, U.S. Sen. Jack Reed and five colleagues — all of them women — appeared at a Democratic fundraiser in Providence to tout Whitehouse’s election as essential to winning a Senate majority.

The $1,000 event was outdoors at the East Side home of Jack and Sara McConnell. The fare included tenderloin, coconut-encrusted shrimp, and a slice of irony. Jack McConnell, Rhode Island party treasurer, was campaign chairman for Myrth York, who defeated Whitehouse in the 2002 primary for governor. At the same time, McConnell was representing Attorney General Whitehouse’s office in the lead paint case.

It was an “odd” situation, McConnell concedes. “It was uncomfortable, but one of the things that I came to respect about Sheldon was that he separated the politics from the office.”

I asked McConnell what kind of chance he gives the Democrats of picking up the six seats they need this year. “I think it’s good. I wouldn’t call it very good,” he said.

Duffy says the Democrats’ best chance of taking a seat is Montana, followed by Pennsylvania, then Ohio, Rhode Island, Missouri and Tennessee.

Duffy, who grew up here, rates Rhode Island a toss-up, as do I.

Whitehouse argues that even if the Democrats fall a couple of seats short this time, it puts them in position to gain a majority in 2008.

Reed said of the chance of gaining six this year, “It’s good. I don’t think it’s certain.”

He said it’s “difficult” to take on an incumbent, but Whitehouse is talented and energetic. “And I think he also is tapping into a real strong, pronounced concern by the people of Rhode Island about the direction of the country under George Bush and the Republican Congress.”

I asked each of Reed’s visiting colleagues how much of their own personal money they’d be willing to bet on the Democrats gaining six seats this year. This is what they said:

Sen. Barbara Boxer, California: “I don’t bet my personal money on any of this. If the election were held today, we’d pick up five seats, and I think we have a real chance to take back the Senate.”

Sen. Mary Landrieu, Louisiana: “I think it’s going to be tough for us this cycle in the Senate, to be very honest, and I’m not much of a gambler…. It’s going to be tough, but I think the country is tiring of this Republican leadership.”

Sen. Barbara Mikulski, Maryland: Remember the movie Diner, set in Baltimore? “I’m one of those Diner Democrats, not a Dynasty Democrat, so I don’t have a lot of money. But I’ll tell you — if I had a plate of French fries, I’d bet a double gravy that the Democrats will win.”

Sen. Patty Murray, Washington: “I never bet. I just work really hard to try and achieve what I think is important, and that’s what I’m doing.”

Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas: “I don’t bet money. I think we have a very good shot. Do I think it’s in the bag? No, and that’s the reason we’re out here.”

The women couldn’t say enough about Whitehouse and what they see as a need to give Reed a Democratic partner. Boxer got so carried away she told the crowd, “These two as a team will be magnificent.... They even kind of look alike.”

Actually, of course, they don’t, but Mikulski piped up, “They both look smart!”

While the Brown poll released on Tuesday had Whitehouse-Chafee at 40-39, a recent Rasmussen Reports poll had it 51-43, still highly competitive. (The most intriguing thing there: 84 percent said a candidate’s “individual character” was more important than party. That’s something for Chafee to play upon.) Meanwhile, another head-to-head poll, by American Research Group, fell in between, with Whitehouse leading, 45-40.

Darrell West, the Brown pollster, finds it remarkable that Chafee seems to be so unscarred from the bitter GOP primary. Whitehouse, of course, has been enjoying a political honeymoon, and I’ll be curious to see how he fares when the Chafee campaign and/or the National Republican Senatorial Committee unload on him.

A Rhode Island attorney general regularly makes controversial decisions, and no modern AG has won higher office.

While Whitehouse speaks so fervently of a Democratic Senate, you can almost visualize it, Chafee campaign manager Ian Lang says, “Almost any national pundit would say there’s virtually no chance the Democrats are going to take control.”

Lang notes that there is a real possibility now of a New Jersey seat going from Democratic to Republican. On the other hand, a Virginia seat that seemed safe for the Republicans now has begun to look like a real race.

Professor West says there are so many close contests that voters around the country won’t know in advance which party will wind up with the majority. “If people are looking for guidance on that, they’re not going to get any.”

Duffy says she thinks she’ll have “a decent idea” shortly before Nov. 7 of how things are going and that a consensus will emerge by then among those who daily monitor the races.

Rhode Island’s is a marquee contest. Whitehouse looks to boosts on Oct. 12 from Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and on Oct. 16 from Bill Clinton. The former president, who was at a Whitehouse fundraiser in June, will be at a Democratic fundraiser this time. It honors McConnell, the late Julia Pell and Mark Weiner, who raises money for Whitehouse and is a Clinton buddy.

A top Republican, Sen. John McCain, who appeared for Chafee in June, is coming Oct 4.

Incidentally, the presence of six senators at the McConnells reminded me of a 1982 campaign event for the late Sen. John Chafee, Lincoln’s father, which drew eight. This was a $15-a-family rally and field day at the Chafee spread in Warwick. He was running — successfully — for reelection against Democrat Julius Michaelson.

The seven Republican senators who joined Chafee that day included John Warner of Virginia, Bob Packwood of Oregon, Slade Gorton of Washington, Warren Rudman of New Hampshire, William Cohen of Maine, Nancy Kassebaum of Kansas and Nicholas Brady of New Jersey.

There were potato-sack races and hayrides and a gigantic pink-and-white striped tent, not to mention hot dogs, beer, sodas and a band.

What, you don’t remember this?

M. Charles Bakst is The Journal’s political columnist.