PROVIDENCE — A new poll — funded by a group opposing gay marriage — suggests that 43 percent of Rhode Islanders are against same-sex nuptials, while 36 percent support it.

An even larger segment –– 74 percent –– said they would favor putting the question on the ballot for a vote, rather than allowing the General Assembly to decide. Only 2 percent of respondents identified gay marriage as one of “the most important issues” facing Rhode Island. Four hundred voters were surveyed.

Paid for by the National Organization for Marriage and conducted by local pollster Victor Profughi, the just-released public opinion poll is the latest in a recent string of conflicting surveys.

The results come just two weeks after a Brown University poll found that 60 percent of respondents favor gay marriage, and nearly a year after one commissioned by Marriage Equality Rhode Island, a pro-gay marriage group, concluded that 49 percent of those surveyed supported such unions.

Those inconsistencies may muddy the same sex-marriage debate in the Ocean State, which has long lacked an accurate measure of public opinion. Rhode Island is now the only state in New England that has not legalized gay marriage.

Advocates on both sides question the objectivity of polls conducted by political interest groups. It was the National Organization for Marriage that dismissed the Marriage Equality poll this spring as an unreliable litmus test, given its funding source.

Veteran pollster Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said the real measure of a poll’s accuracy is how the respondents are selected and how the questions are worded.

(Smith was not involved in any Rhode Island polls, though he has previously conducted a survey for a pro-gay marriage group in New Hampshire).

An objective polling question should be phrased without loaded or leading words, Smith said. He cites phrasing in the latest poll: “Some people say that gays and lesbians have a right to live as they choose, but they do not have the right to redefine marriage for all of society. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with that statement?” (57 percent agree, 34 percent disagree).

“That’s a leading question,” Smith said, noting the use of such weighted phrases as “redefine” and “all of society.”

Profughi on Monday defended his wording as well as his decision to conduct the poll on behalf of an advocacy group, emphasizing that he designed the questions.

“[Same-sex marriage] is a public policy issue that has gotten a lot of attention recently, so I, as an academic, am curious what the outcomes are,” said Profughi, who has formerly conducted polls with Rhode Island College. “Since I’m not independently wealthy and can’t do these surveys on my own, when I had the opportunity to do this and essentially control the elements, I went ahead and did it. This is not an issue I have personal opinions on.”

Brown professor and former Democratic congressional primary candidate Jennifer Lawless (who teaches classes on polling and public opinion, but was not involved in the Brown poll) called the latest survey “a push poll” –– a catchphrase used for a poll that pushes participants in a certain direction. She points to the main question: “As far as you are concerned personally, do you favor or oppose same-sex marriage in Rhode Island?”

By using the word “personally” the pollster makes the issue a personal one for the respondent which could make that person less likely to give a favorable response, Lawless said.

But Christopher Plante, executive director of the Rhode Island chapter of the National Organization for Marriage, shot back Monday, saying his poll was conducted by random dialing of Rhode Island households and questioning whether the previous ones used similar selection processes. The Taubman Center was unable to provide the demographics of its respondents. Marriage Equality did not return calls for comment.

Of the three polls, Plante said the Brown poll was less reliable, given how out of line its results were with the other Rhode Island polls and similar ones nationwide.

Observers say that the age of participants is one final factor that can also influence the outcome of opinion polls. More than 68 percent of respondents in the latest poll were over the age of 50. Previous surveys in Rhode Island and elsewhere show that older voters are more likely to oppose same-sex unions while younger ones tend to favor it. Same-sex marriage polls

July 2008

•Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of 500 likely Rhode Island voters.

•Paid for by Marriage Equality of Rhode Island, which supports same-sex marriage

•Question: “Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally?”

49 percent supported

39 percent opposed

12 percent undecided

•Margin of error: n/a

May 18-20, 2009

•Brown University Taubman Center for Public Policy poll of 593 registered Rhode Island voters.

•Independent poll

•Question: “Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?”

60 percent supported

31 percent opposed

9 percent don’t know

•Margin of error: Plus or minus 4 percentage points

June 8-9, 2009

•Quest Research poll of 400 registered Rhode Island voters

•Paid for by National Organization for Marriage RI, which opposes same-sex marriage

•Question: “As far as you are concerned personally, do you favor or oppose same-sex marriage in Rhode Island? And do you feel strongly about this?”

23 percent strongly favor legalizing

13 percent somewhat favor legalizing

17 percent undecided

7.8 percent oppose somewhat

35.5 percent oppose strongly

3 percent don’t know or won’t say

•Margin of error: Plus or minus 4.9 percentage points

cneedham@projo.com