M. Charles Bakst

m. charles bakst

M. Charles Bakst: Chafee, Laffey suspense mounts

01:00 AM EDT on Sunday, September 3, 2006

Notes on the extraordinary Linc Chafee-Steve Laffey Republican Senate primary, where polls conflict and which rivets the attention of a Democratic state and the nation's political community.

As Senator Chafee stood in front of the Cranston Senior Services Center the other day, an 85-year-old World War II Navy veteran came up to him.

The man, who transports books for the Cranston library, declared, "I'm Don Mellor from Cranston. I was on a destroyer when your dad stormed the Solomon Islands."

An enthusiastic Chafee interjected, "Wow!"

But Mellor continued, "I'm so disappointed that you made a mockery of something that was sacred to us -- voting. You didn't vote. That's the way I looked at it."

Mellor was talking about the fact that Chafee, instead of choosing in 2004 between George W. Bush and John Kerry, wrote in the name of former President George H.W. Bush.

Mellor complained that what Chafee did amounted to "a joke."

"I disagree," said Chafee.

Mellor said he was a big admirer of Chafee's father, John, a Marine who became governor and senator.

Moments later, I asked Mellor if he'll vote in the primary. "I'm going to vote whenever I can vote," he said, sounding insulted by the question. "You've got to vote."

And will he go with Chafee or Laffey? He said he didn't know. But it was obvious that Chafee's 2004 action rankled. Mellor said, "When I was in school, they said you've got to vote, and in my opinion he did not vote."

I don't exaggerate the importance of the encounter with Mellor, but it did take some of the gloss over what had been an upbeat Chafee visit with Tuesday's lunch crowd at the senior center, where a Laffey portrait adorns the entryway.

It was very Rhode Island.

I mean, the diners included former First Lady Pat DiPrete, 71, a Senior Services regular. (Her husband, Ed, the former governor, does some work at the engineering office of their son, Dennis, and spends a lot of time with her.)

She likes Chafee, whom she said she knows "mostly from his father."

The Chafee legacy was a huge hit in this crowd. Most of the folks who come to the center are residents of Cranston, a city he carried in his near-sweep victory over Democrat Bob Weygand in 2000, but there are a good number as well from other communities.

Natalie Meola of North Providence, who had a kiss for the senator, told him his father was "a doll."

It has to be a rush for a politician to be greeted warmly. But it doesn't necessarily translate into votes, especially in a primary. I heard the senator tell Ernie Testa of Providence, "I'm doing my best, I voted against the [Iraq] war." After Chafee had moved on, Testa praised him. "I think he has the courage to oppose his president on many issues, particularly the war." But then too, Testa told me he doesn't vote in primaries.

Did I mention that Deborah St. Peter, the Laffey appointee who is Cranston's senior services director, had the honor of hosting Chafee's visit?

"The Cranston Senior Center is a public building," she told me, and any candidate is welcome to come in.

What does she think of Chafee? "He seems like a very nice man." And, she added evenly, he's running against Laffey, "my boss."

St. Peter introduced Chafee for brief remarks from the stage. He said, "When I was mayor of my city in Warwick, we had our three senior centers. . . . A number of you are still living in your own homes. . . . When I went from being mayor of my city of Warwick to the Senate I said the one thing I want to look after is the property taxpayer."

He said he voted against such things as income tax cuts for the rich.

He reminded the seniors that the primary is on Sept. 12. "Your choices are great. Senator Chafee has been very, very steady. I don't blow with the wind on issues."

St. Peter thanked him and said, politely, "Of course, we wish you the best of luck." When she asked if anyone wanted to say grace, Chafee volunteered and rushed through a brief prayer: "God bless this food. . . . Make us ever mindful of the needs of others."

He told me members of his family took turns reciting it at every meal when he was growing up. "Whoever said it fastest was the most appreciated."

CHAFEE IS a personable, earnest guy who often seems uncomfortable, unfocused. Laffey is Mr. On Message.

And the more Chafee attacks him, the cooler and calmer Laffey tries to come across in debates and ads. (Which does not necessarily mean that reporters find him breezy or even accessible. He refused my request for an interview last Tuesday. His campaign does not routinely announce his schedule; I hoped to catch some scenes of him campaigning in the ensuing days, but his staff declined to tell me where he'd be appearing.)

A Laffey TV ad that debuted on Wednesday captured well the themes and tones he wants to project. An announcer says, "Washington is going in the wrong direction. Runaway wasteful spending. Out-of-control borders. Record high gas prices. It's time for a change."

Then Laffey, wife Kelly by his side, taps deeper into the vein he perceives in voter frustration: "We can cut government waste and lower taxes. We can stop our dependence on foreign oil and win the war on terror and we can secure our borders. But first we have to change Washington." If you agree, he says, he "respectfully" seeks your vote.

He plays on your resentments. You may well say, "Right on, Mayor," not once pausing to think about whether what he is saying is liberal or conservative, or Republican or Democrat. And it may be that you won't ponder the extent to which Laffey or any other single senator could actually do anything about these problems; you just want to vent.

Chafee was serving up another attack ad, with folks saying things like, "Laffey's running for Senate here in the state of Rhode Island, but his ego is the size of the state of Texas."

Why was incumbent Chafee at this point airing attack ads at all?

But the nastiest ad to date wasn't from Chafee. It was from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and it stereotyped Latinos as it strafed Laffey on immigration matters. Its message was that Cranston's acceptance of Mexican identification cards can threaten American security. In a Tuesday interview, Chafee himself said there was merit to a complaint from state Sen. Juan Pichardo, D-Providence, that the ad's imagery could unfairly engender prejudice, but he refused to ask the NRSC to take it off the air.

In a dramatic development on Friday, Chafee strode into a news conference held by Pichardo, Rep. Grace Diaz (D-Providence), Julio César Aragon, and other community spokespersons who were denouncing the ad. He disclosed that he had talked with an NRSC aide on Thursday and had asked that the spot be dropped. The ad was dropped. Chafee did not claim credit for getting it removed, and, indeed, word came later that the ad had simply run its course after airing for about a week.

The response from Pichardo, Diaz and Aragon: Chafee's action was welcome but should have come sooner, and no one should run ads like that again. Laffey, of course, was quick to portray as indecisive Chafee's slowness to act. And if Chafee wins the primary, it will be interesting to see the degree to which there is lingering resentment in the Latino community over this incident.

YOU HAVE to wonder where all the Chafee-Laffey back and forth in the primary will lead in the general election as the Republican survivor goes head to head with Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.

I had occasion last week to touch on this subject, at least as it might relate to women, with Washington-based pollster Anna Greenberg. She did an extensive survey of women's political attitudes here for the Women's Fund of Rhode Island. Greenberg, who also polls for Attorney General Patrick Lynch, found women are heavily into quality education, affordable health care, and secure retirement, issues that often have taken a back seat in the Chafee-Laffey primary to tirades against "special interests" and illegal immigration, debates over tax cuts, and squabbles about style.

Whoever wins the GOP race, Greenberg said, "there's going to be some real work for the Republican nominee to pivot back to a conversation that's more relevant to what sort-of-regular people care about, and I think that's going to be a real challenge."

Laffey certainly seems to have developed momentum, but poll data released Thursday gave a mixed picture of the primary. A Rhode Island College survey had Laffey well in front. A poll done for the Republican Senatorial Committee put Chafee nicely ahead.

I wouldn't begin to guess.

At the Cranston Senior Center, I met Raymond Sagnella of Cranston, who was there with his wife, Louise. He said this was the first time he'd seen Chafee in person and the senator seemed like a good guy.

Sagnella, 90, said of Mayor Laffey, who has labored to rescue Cranston finances, "I thought he was great because we were in a hell of a hole; I mean, I don't know how we were going to get out of it. But he pulled us out in a relatively short time, all right. He did ask us for more [tax] money, but it wasn't a big amount, and I guess he needed that to fight it."

On the other hand, Sagnella, who used to work for the Post Office and for Cranston Print Works, wonders whether Laffey has the experience needed for Washington.

So, Sagnella said, he still can't figure out whether he prefers Laffey or Chafee. "I'm sitting on the edge," he said.

And I'm on edge waiting for the outcome of this race.

M. Charles Bakst is The Journal's political columnist.

mbakst@projo.com /(401) 277-7638

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