01:00 AM EST on Sunday, November 6, 2005

Straws in the wind: Politicians and the 2006 Latino vote.

Stick with me and you'll hear some wildly divergent views of the economy, from what Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told me at a recent fundraiser for Republican Sen. Linc Chafee to what Hispanic business people on Providence's South Side said when Sheldon Whitehouse, a candidate in the Democratic Senate primary, stopped by their places on Broad Street.

There'll be some electoral chatter from other key pols and Hispanic figures -- everyone is after the Latino vote -- and refreshments will be served.

I spoke with the Cuban-born Gutierrez, former CEO of Kellogg Co., at a luncheon for Chafee heavy hitters at the Hotel Providence. Hosts were corporate bigwigs David Weinstein of Fidelity, Bruce Turner of GTECH, and Jonathan Nelson of Providence Equity Partners.

The crowd was made up largely of the usual suits, folks like lawyer Jim Skeffington and Gilbane mogul Paul Choquette. When I asked Chafee if he reached out to involve the state's burgeoning Latino community in the fundraiser, he said yes and introduced me to Ana Morgan, a local international marketing consultant originally from El Salvador. She praised his efforts on behalf of Latinos and said, "He doesn't just talk."

There was a touch of irony to the presence of Gutierrez. After all, Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, running against Chafee in the GOP primary, is philosophically closer to the Bush administration -- certainly, say, on tax cuts -- than is Chafee. But Gutierrez said in an interview, "The White House has a great deal of respect for the senator. We've worked closely together. You know, 70 percent of his votes are usually very much in line with the White House and we understand this [state] is not an easy area for a Republican."

I said most Rhode Island Latinos vote Democratic and I asked what the Republican message is to them. Gutierrez said the Commerce Department had just reported "great" growth in an important economic index. He said, "We want to keep that going. That's the biggest Republican message."

Gutierrez declared, "Republican policies have been good for the economy. They've been good for prosperity. They've been good for the middle class. They've been good for home ownership, and that's what's at stake here."

Two days earlier, I picked up different vibrations on Broad Street during a campaign swing by former Attorney General Whitehouse, who is running against Secretary of State Matt Brown for the Democratic Senate nod. It was a day for Whitehouse to circulate with notable Hispanic supporters: Jose Brito, president of the Greater Providence Merchants Association; Juana Horton, chair of the Hispanic American Chamber of Commerce; state Sen. Juan Pichardo, and state Rep. Grace Diaz. (Diaz told folks to remember the name Whitehouse, or, "Casa Blanco.")

Any candidate can spout statistics about the challenges facing people trying to get ahead, or even get by, in America in 2005. But here are some real-life concerns from real voices on Broad Street:

At Ramaraya cafeteria, Ana Diaole, an owner, told Whitehouse that business is suffering because people are staying home. She told me that's because of the high price of gasoline.

At Ada's Creations, another food emporium, owner Ada Terrero told Whitehouse that her workers need affordable housing. "So many of my employees worry about that, because the salary is very low and the rent is very high."

At Perla Del Caribe market, owner Miguel Olaveria told the candidate he has no health insurance. "It's too expensive," he said.

Everywhere he went, Whitehouse pumped hands and distributed English-language campaign cards.

Some time ago, Brito led Chafee on a similar tour of the area. Brito says, "He's been doing a lot for Latinos" -- for example, voting for the Central American Free Trade Agreement. Still, Brito, a Democrat, supports Democrat Whitehouse, and at El Vecino meat market, he handed the candidate a large salami and snapped his picture. The salami was made of pork, beef, and pork hearts. Brito said it was the kind of photo that would speak to Dominican-Americans.

Representative Diaz, who, like Brito, is Dominican, told me enthusiastically about frying up sliced salami and eating it with mashed, buttered green plantains. I sampled the combo at lunch at La Gran Parada and, yes, it was delicious. (Whitehouse's main course was goat, which he called "fantastic.")

Diaz is a home child-care provider. Her big issue -- though the Ethics Commission told her she couldn't vote on it -- is a bill to allow providers to unionize and bargain with the state. Republican Gov. Don Carcieri vetoed it and, to Diaz's dismay, the Democratic General Assembly has not returned for an override.

Whitehouse embraces the bill. He told me, "I think most people in Rhode Island would support it if they really understood it, and particularly if they understood how important that particular industry is to the Latino community. When people come into this community and just get started, one of the best ways that they can begin to make their mark economically is to take care of kids." And of course, he said, there is a tremendous market for it, because so many parents work two or three jobs.

Whitehouse is known as the guy with the golden résumé. In addition to being AG, he was U.S. attorney and a top State House aide. But he also has been a figure of controversy. I spoke with him this day about a dark episode in his AG tenure, the failure to protect 15-year-old Jennifer Rivera, slain just before she was to testify at a murder trial. She was Puerto Rican and her death outraged the Latino community.

Whitehouse said that, given the nature of politics, he expects someone will bring this up before the campaign is over.

He sounded haunted by it. He said her murder was not only a tragedy but also a shock to the law-enforcement community. "There were clearly problems with the witness-protection system and in the aftermath I think we made very, very significant improvements and we are far better off as a result. If I had identified that as an issue sooner, so that the improvements were in place at the time of that prosecution, might it have made a difference? It might have, and, yeah, I'll be thinking of that always."

Diaz told me that when she runs into people who blame Whitehouse for Rivera's death, she defends him. She said, "I believe in his integrity." She said Whitehouse learned from it, and that he's good on issues like education and immigration that are important to Latinos.

I discussed the situation with several people at a Roger Williams Park Casino awards night/fundraiser held by the Rhode Island Latino Political Action Committee.

Betty Bernal, who is Peruvian and supports Matt Brown, remembered being upset by Rivera's death. "The girl needed to be protected and I think they didn't do a good job," she said.

Nellie Gorbea, Brown's director of administration, who grew up in Puerto Rico, said people in Puerto Rican circles are especially apt to talk about Rivera.

Gorbea said of Whitehouse, "You can't judge a person by one incident, but that was a very problematic moment."

Brown's best known supporter may be Dr. Pablo Rodriguez, who likes Whitehouse but says he is closer to Brown. (They worked together on the 2000 Democracy Compact get-out-the-vote drive.) Still, Rodriguez said endorsements by "famous" people don't mean much.

I told him that officeholders Diaz and Pichardo said they'll work hard for Whitehouse. That is impressive, Rodriguez said. Yet he observed, "It requires the work of the candidates themselves, not just the surrogates."

On the Republican side, Laffey concedes nothing to Chafee. "I have a big heart for everybody trying to live the American dream and I have a very close relationship with many people in the Latino community," Laffey says. The mayor, who mingled at the RILPAC event, ran a Spanish radio ad as soon as he announced his Senate candidacy. He admits his accent is terrible but says he's working on it with tapes and that he found in visits to Guatemala and Mexico that his command of the language improves when he is immersed in it.

Laffey was accompanied this night by Assistant City Solicitor Nancy Garcia Ponte, whose heritage is Puerto Rican. Later, David Quiroa, who grew up in Guatemala and works for Cranston's senior services agency, told me by phone he hopes to draw Republican primary support for Laffey among Latinos by stressing standard GOP values like opposition to abortion. (Chafee favors abortion rights.)

Of course, the Senate seat is not the only major office up for grabs next year. There's also the governor's race, with Democratic Lt. Gov. Charlie Fogarty hoping to topple Carcieri.

In an interview, RILPAC president Domingo Morel praised Carcieri's appointments of DCYF Director Patricia Martinez and District Court Judge Rafael Ovalles, but slammed the governor for vetoing the child-care provider bill and a measure to raise the minimum wage.

Fogarty has blasted Carcieri on the wage issue, but stops short of calling for an override on the child-care measure. At the RILPAC event, Fogarty told me he likes the bill's concept but wants refinements in its language.

Carcieri missed the event, but said later that he supports many RILPAC aims, including getting more people involved in the political process. And he said he'll reach out to Latinos in the '06 campaign, as he did in '02.

It's fascinating to see the pols eying this community. No one cultivates it better than Providence Mayor David Cicilline, who speaks a passable Spanish, sprinkling a couple of sentences into his RILPAC speech.

He goes on radio and to community events and most of the time, he told me, he doesn't need an interpreter. I asked if people complain to him in Spanish. "Yes," he said. "They also praise me in Spanish!"

M. Charles Bakst, The Journal's political columnist, can be reached by e-mail at mbakst [at] projo.com