09:02 AM EDT on Sunday, May 29, 2005

Republican Lincoln Chafee's life on the Senate edge gets more and more interesting.

Last week, breaking with Senate GOP leaders, he and other moderates from both parties reached a compromise that allowed the Senate to avert an immediate, potentially disastrous confrontation over filibusters and judgeships.

Then, when the first of these nominations came up and the Senate voted 55 to 43 to confirm Texas Supreme Court Justice Priscilla Owen to an appeals court seat, Chafee was the lone Republican dissenter. He was upset by Owen's anti-abortion views -- specifically, opinions she voiced in voting on the Texas court to make it harder for teens to get an abortion without parental involvement.

And Owen may be the least controversial of the nominees.

No one knew for sure exactly what the compromise agreement meant, or how long it would last, and it was widely believed that tempers would flare again, if only by the time President Bush appoints someone to the U.S. Supreme Court. An ultra-conservative selection could make Democrats want to filibuster the nomination to death and make Republicans want to smash the filibuster by changing Senate rules.

For the moment, Chafee's participation in the compromise move won praise from Democratic Sen. Jack Reed, who was not part of the initiative. Reed told me Chafee and the other 13 senators involved were "very helpful." He declared, "It has brought us back from the precipice. I think it has allowed cooler heads to prevail."

A wag's line is that Republicans some day might be glad to have the filibuster tactic available -- when President Hillary Rodham Clinton names Barbra Streisand to the Supreme Court.

Democrat Reed notes the principle, "What goes around, comes around."

Republican Chafee says Streisand wouldn't be nominated, of course, but some other pick the Republicans find alarming might be, and "I want to reserve the right to filibuster."

While Reed was generous in assessing Chafee's role, the Republican's 2006 prospective Democratic challengers -- former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse and Secretary of State Matt Brown -- were not.

Although Whitehouse said he was glad Chafee helped out and it was nice a showdown was temporarily averted, he added, "We should not allow it to take our eye off the fact that the showdown was caused and led by a conservative right-wing Republican leadership that Linc Chafee has supported and continues to support."

Whitehouse and Brown said that if they were in the Senate they would, like Reed, oppose Owen and two other appeals nominations to be voted on shortly, those of Janice Rogers Brown and William Pryor. Whitehouse noted that the compromise Chafee promoted had paved the way for all three choices to get up or down votes: "The compromise allows them on the floor, where it doesn't matter anymore whether he votes for them; the Republicans no longer need Linc Chafee's vote."

Chafee said he would look at the Brown and Pryor nominations "very carefully."

Matt Brown said the Senate had already confirmed most Bush judicial picks:

"There are a handful that are so extreme they shouldn't go forward, so sometimes you have to say, 'Enough is enough.' "

Of course, if there'd been no compromise -- a pact forged by seven Democrats as well as seven Republicans -- the GOP majority might have run roughshod over the Democratic minority and, in what was known as the nuclear option, suspended the filibuster rule, leaving things in even worse shape.

But Brown suggested that that was just speculation. "We don't know where this would have ended up," he said.

While Whitehouse and Brown attacked Chafee from the left, much of the criticism of the compromise came from the right. For example, the Christian Communication Network carried a news release from Concerned Women for America with a headline blaring, "Seven Republican Dwarves Sold Out Snow White -- Left Democrats With Key to Castle."

Chafee said things had gotten crazy. What most Americans care about, he said Wednesday, are issues like Iraq, Social Security, and health care. "They're looking at us in a way like, almost, 'Nero's fiddling while Rome burns. What are they doing with a filibuster and nuclear options?' The 14 of us stood up and avoided a massive train wreck . . . There are important issues we need to focus on."

IN SOMETHING else that could shape Chafee's future, last week also saw emergence of a letter seeking to draft Cranston's Republican Mayor Steve Laffey for Senate next year. Former GOP city chairman Gary Vierra, who helped put the effort together, presented the letter to the mayor in advance of a visit to the state by party national chairman Ken Mehlman.

Speaking at a GOP fundraiser (shrimp, sesame chicken) Tuesday night at the Crowne Plaza, Mehlman said it's important to reelect Governor Carcieri in 2006 for four more years. And, "We've got another good man that we've got to make sure returns, for six more years, and that's Senator Chafee."

Mehlman praised Chafee for being a careful spender, which I thought ironic, since the senator opposed the Bush tax cuts. Indeed, you'd hardly know from Mehlman that Chafee often strays from the party line. "This is somebody that has worked closely with the administration and with the president on important accomplishments we've made this past year," Mehlman said. "We, for the first time in more than a decade, thanks to Linc Chafee's leadership, curbed frivolous law suits because class-action reform is now the law of the land." Etc.

Interestingly, Mehlman extolled Chafee's "strong" support for John Bolton, the strident nominee for U.N. ambassador. Actually, Chafee wavered and made clear that he was no big Bolton fan, although he ended up voting to advance the nomination out of committee and to the Senate floor, where he planned to vote for it.

I asked Mehlman if it's true -- as New Republic magazine said -- that he's asked Laffey not to run for Senate. "I don't want to get into private conversations I may or may not have," he replied. "I'll just say that I'm here to help unify the party . . ."

But, no question, he is for Chafee and wants to avoid a primary, no? "Well, again, I'm not going to get into private conversations I may or may not have other than to say I believe we have a tremendous opportunity to have a unified party and to have strong candidates in the November election."

Laffey won't say if Mehlman asked him not to go for Senate.

Governor Carcieri, a Chafee supporter who has chatted with the mayor, said his sense always has been that Laffey would be more drawn to an executive slot than to the Senate:

"Obviously, the lieutenant governor's seat is open; the treasurer is an open seat. So I talked with him about those. I would be thrilled to have a Republican lieutenant governor."

As for the draft-Laffey-for-Senate letter, there is some reason to take the movement seriously -- but ample reason not to get excited about it.

If you're hoping Laffey will run, you'll be glad that Republican National Committeeman Bob Manning calls the draft effort "reflective of a pretty powerful reality out there." He says, "There's a lot of sentiment amongst the rank-and-file party members that, obviously, is reflected by the letter, that they think it's time to consider some alternatives."

Manning, whom Laffey helped install as national committeeman, does not state a preference. (Committeewoman Eileen Slocum is for Chafee -- "all the way," she says.)

Laffey asserts he had no advance knowledge of the letter, even though signatories include several of his top advisers.

Chafee said he considers the move to be part of an "orchestrated effort" by Laffey's own camp and therefore "a farce."

Like Carcieri, Chafee said there are good opportunities for Laffey to run for state office.

The names on the Laffey letter that struck me most were those of Jim Hackett, Norman Orodenker, and Paul Zisserson. All three confirm they also are privately urging Laffey on and, of course, they belittle Chafee.

Hackett, who owns a mortgage company and has been Laffey's campaign finance chair, echoes the mayor's portrayals of Chafee as indecisive, partly because of the senator's writing in George H.W. Bush, the incumbent's father, for president last year. Hackett says, "It's embarrassing . . . This is a U.S. senator we're talking about. We're not talking about someone who's managing a kids' Little League baseball team who can't decide who he's going to put in to pitch."

Zisserson, a retired Cranston East teacher who has been Laffey's campaign manager, says of Chafee, "He's a nice man . . . He's just an atrocious leader."

Orodenker, a lawyer and longtime Laffey mentor, says Chafee is "in over his head."

By the way, while everyone agrees Chafee is a moderate, Orodenker decries descriptions of Laffey as conservative. Orodenker says, "I'm a goddamned liberal. You think I would support a conservative?" He calls Laffey "a reformer."

But despite their enthusiasm, none of the Laffey advisers suggests that he gives any indication he will indeed run for Senate. Obviously, the mayor would need to come up with a lot of bucks, but Hackett believes Laffey's young family is an even bigger factor in his thinking.

IN ANY CASE, when I spoke with Laffey on Tuesday night, he was less combative, less playful, less interested in getting into a Senate race discussion than I'd ever seen him. He arrived on the Crowne Plaza scene after chairman Mehlman spoke. I told Laffey that Mehlman had made a pitch for Chafee, and what did he think of that? "I don't know, I didn't hear it," Laffey said.

I asked if he wanted me to play it back for him. No.

Nor did he want to talk about Chafee's role vis-a-vis filibusters and judges.

The mercurial mayor could do a 180-degree turn and plunge into the race.

But I'm not holding my breath waiting for it.

M. Charles Bakst, The Journal's political columnist, can be reached by e-mail at mbakst [at] projo.com