01:00 AM EST on Sunday, February 6, 2005

I always was skeptical that Democrat Jim Langevin really would cast aside a lock on a U.S. House seat in order to risk what I see as a tough 2006 run for the Senate against Linc Chafee, the Republican incumbent.

But in the aftermath of Democratic Secretary of State Matt Brown's declaration for the Senate last Thursday, I'm now willing to believe Langevin will go for Senate after all, even if it entails a primary.

Although it was no surprise that Brown, who is only two years into public office, would seek to move up, the very nature of his actual announcement -- a hastily convened series of media interviews devoid of the usual kick-off trappings and undertaken without benefit of a campaign manager or headquarters -- made me think the secretary of state was trying to preempt someone from entering or to lock in contributors before they sign up elsewhere.

Then, Langevin aide Mike Guilfoyle, in addition to issuing a feisty comment swatting Brown away by saying he has not and will not have any effect on the congressman's decision, told me that Langevin has two heavy-duty fundraisers coming up, including a Feb. 28 affair at the Convention Center.

Mark Weiner, a top name in Democratic money circles, is a leading force behind the two events. He told me Friday he has "absolutely no doubt" that Langevin will go for Senate.

Former Mayor Joe Paolino, also working on the events, said he believes it, too. In any case, Paolino said, "My job is to raise enough funds so it won't be an obstacle to his making a decision."

Meanwhile, former Democratic Atty. Gen. Sheldon Whitehouse, who has been eying a Senate run but who has said he'll back Langevin if the congressman enters the fray, told me that he considers a Langevin candidacy "a very realistic likelihood."

If sidelined from the Senate race, Whitehouse still has other options -- governor, obviously, a job he sought in 2002 -- and, he said, lieutenant governor, a post for which Democratic state Sen. Elizabeth Roberts already is building support.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Charlie Fogarty is term-limited and has said he intends to run for governor. But there is continued speculation that he'll try for House if Langevin moves on. On Friday, I tried to pin Fogarty down. He told me Langevin has his support for either House or Senate, whichever he chooses, and "any speculation beyond that is far too premature."

(Now here's a thought: if Whitehouse were to run for lieutenant governor and Fogarty for House, whom would the Democrats run for governor against Don Carcieri, the Republican incumbent? Fogarty chuckled, "It's going to be an interesting year.")

AS FOR THE Feb. 28 Langevin event at the Convention Center:

Depending on its configuration for a particular affair, the facility can be roomy enough to house, say, the population of Newport. When I twitted Guilfoyle by asking if the campaign would use the whole building or just part of it, he replied, "With the amount of support he's receiving here in Rhode Island and throughout the nation, we're hoping the Convention Center is big enough."

Tickets are $500 and $1,000.

The other fundraiser is Feb. 16 in Washington. Tickets are $1,000, $2,500 and (for political action committees only) $5,000.

Guilfoyle predicted that each event will raise hundreds of thousands of dollars -- Weiner and Paolino guessed a combined total of $400,000 -- and indicated they'd play a role in Langevin's decision. But, of course, if he's not running for Senate, why would he need all that money, and why get all those people so worked up?

Although checks are to be made out to Langevin for Congress, Guilfoyle said the money could easily be transferred to a Langevin for Senate campaign. If Langevin goes for Senate but you don't want to support that bid, you can get your money back, Guilfoyle said.

I was interviewing Guilfoyle because, for the first time I can recall, Langevin, a former secretary of state and state rep, declined to talk with me. Maybe he thought getting on the phone would lend too much dignity to Brown's announcement.

Guilfoyle repeatedly mentioned that a poll done for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee showed Langevin leading Chafee, 52 to 32, in a general election matchup. The DSCC gave out those figures last month but wouldn't make the rest of the survey public. Langevin recently told me he has a copy but refused to release it. He said he had no objection if the DSCC wanted to release the full poll.

J.B. Poersch, DSCC executive director, says: no.

Poersch, who used to be top aide to Sen. Jack Reed, had a measured response to Brown's announcement: "If you get a candidate in February of 2005, it shows that Lincoln Chafee is indeed vulnerable. Democrats are taking this race against Chafee very seriously."

Asked if Langevin is the DSCC's first choice, Poersch said the congressman would be "terrific."

Senator Reed said that before he commits himself, he wants to see who comes forward. He said each person has to make the decision: "I don't think anybody ever talked anybody into a race or out of a race."

Langevin is to huddle in Washington on Thursday with Reed, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, and Sen. Charles Schumer, DSCC chairman.

CHAFEE, A liberal, quirky maverick from a blue state who has to function amid a conservative party in Washington, may indeed be vulnerable, but Democrats are foolish if they think he'd be easy to defeat. The magic, old-line Chafee name -- his father was senator and governor -- counts for something, and I believe Rhode Islanders admire the son's stubborn streak and independence.

Of course, that wasn't the chatter from Brown or from Democratic state chairman Bill Lynch last week.

When I asked about Chafee, Brown, who used to run City Year and the Democracy Compact voter drive, turned the topic to Washington Republicans generally and -- this was his standard interview riff -- said, "What have they done to solve the problems that people face in their day-to-day lives? What have they done to bring down the cost of health care, to bring down the cost of prescription drugs, to make our schools better, to make college affordable? I think they just don't get it, and I have spent 10 years working in communities, working with people. I understand what they're up against and will bring a different kind of leadership to solve those problems."

Chairman Lynch was more acerbic. He said the senator's "bizarre" position within his own party was crystalized by his refusal to vote for George Bush and instead writing in the name of the president's father.

Lynch said the average Rhode Islander asked, "What is this guy doing? Why do we have him down there? What does it say about our senator, doing something like that? It's irrational . . . He's a pariah in his own party and he clearly is unable to help us."

Chafee said Friday that the Republican establishment in Washington is solidly behind his reelection. For example, he said, Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell will be here for a Feb. 18 Chafee fundraiser (tickets $250 and $1,000) at the new Hotel Providence. "I've got the support of my party and colleagues," Chafee said.

As for Republicans putting across solutions on issues like health care, Chafee said, "We've got a lot of work in front of us, I don't deny that, but we have made strides." He pointed to the prescription-drug benefit law.

Lynch said Langevin looks like the strongest potential Democratic candidate, but "the election's not tomorrow."

He said the biggest danger to the party is a divisive primary.

The GOP also could have a primary: Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey is seen as a potential challenger to Chafee. When I spoke to the mayor on Thursday, he said he was focusing on his job in City Hall. So, I asked, should I stop mentioning him? "Do whatever you want," he chirped, launching into a free commercial. "We've had an indisputable record of achivement here in Cranston, we've turned the city around . . ." (Okay, Mayor, when you make up your mind, call me.)

AS FOR BROWN, it has seemed obvious throughout his stint as secretary of state that he'd run for Senate. He's stretched the mandate of the office to include such far-flung fields as health care. So, I asked last week: when folks said all along that he was using the office as a stepping stone, they were right?

He insisted, "I'm not a career politician, so I probably have a different approach than others, and I believe that when hundreds of people come to you and tell you that they've got a serious problem like small business and the rising cost of health care, like senior citizens who can't afford prescription drugs, you should do what you can to solve the problem."

I don't underestimate Brown's potential as a Senate candidate. As a political novice, he put together a good, well-financed campaign and upended Secretary of State Ed Inman in the 2002 Democratic primary.

Brown said that, through a phone network, he had quickly raised $212,000 to start the Senate race, but he refused to give me a list of donors and amounts prior to the official reporting date. He did issue a roster of 500 names of people he said back his candidacy.

It includes Citizens Bank executive Barbara Cottam, businesswoman Cheryl Snead, hotel mogul Arthur Robbins, and Dr. Pablo Rodriguez, a hero in the world of abortion rights. One of the few political names: state Sen. Juan Pichardo.

Brown said he announced last week because he was ready to go and saw no reason to hold back. He said he was flying blind -- no polls. "I'm not going to make the decision about whether or not to run for Senate based on a poll," he said.

A monumental blunder? An act of great courage?

In sports, you don't know until they play the games, and in politics you don't know until they hold the elections.

M. Charles Bakst, The Journal's political columnist, can be reached by e-mail at mbakst [at] projo.com