Brett Smiley, right, with Adam Bozzi while they were working on Charles Fogarty’s campaign for governor last year. Smiley now has signed on as a political consultant to Mayor David N. Cicilline.

The Providence Journal / John Freidah

I have no idea how the 2010 race for governor will end. But one way to mark its early stirrings is to note the whereabouts of political operative Brett Smiley.

Smiley, 28, was campaign manager for Democrat Charlie Fogarty, who narrowly lost to Republican incumbent Don Carcieri last year and has been hoping to run for governor again in 2010. But last week Smiley began working for Providence Mayor David Cicilline’s political organization.

Democrat Cicilline is widely expected to launch his own bid for governor.

Smiley’s title is fundraiser and general consultant. He says, “I’m raising money, providing overall campaign structure, setting up his database, writing a budget, organizing the campaign to accommodate his level of fundraising on the scale he’s hoping to achieve.”

Translation: Put Cicilline in position to run for governor if he wants to.

Certainly, Jack McConnell, the Cicilline confidant who recruited Smiley, hopes the mayor will run. “I’d love to see him as governor,” McConnell says. “He’s a proven, effective, ethical leader, and he has values that I share, and he also has the ability to get it done.”

Smiley has a one-year contract. Renewable.

He won’t say what his pay is but allows it’s in the ballpark of $5,000 a month.

He says there is no understanding he’ll stay with Cicilline if Fogarty decides to run — or that he’d go back to Fogarty. For now, he’s certainly enthusiastic about Cicilline, impressed by his “record of achievement” and “vision.”

Does he see a problem down the line of having to choose between the two men? “I have a tremendous amount of respect for Charlie and enjoyed working for him a great deal. That being said, this is what I do for a living. This is what I enjoy doing and I treat it as a profession.”

Then he’s off on another riff about Cicilline’s “tremendous” executive insight. “He recognizes that a lot of issues are bigger than just the city,” etc.

Cicilline, who hails Smiley as a “very talented and experienced fundraiser,” says, “I am raising money now for an election in 2010, and obviously I’m looking at the governor’s race. … Whatever I run for, it’s important to raise money.”

Cicilline is not term limited and would be free to seek reelection, which I doubt he’ll do, because he’s bright, not to say ambitious, and he’ll get increasingly itchy and he’ll look at the other prospective State House candidates and he’ll conclude, “Hey, I can beat them and I’d be a great governor, so why not?”

In an e-mail last week, former Lieutenant Governor Fogarty called Smiley “very sharp,” “very well organized” and someone who gives “very solid” advice.

“Brett and I keep in regular contact. In fact he is hosting a Fogarty campaign reunion cookout at his house next week.

“Brett is starting his own political consulting firm, … and I know he will be a success. I have personally recommended him to a good friend who is running for governor of Delaware in 2008.”

As for 2010 in Rhode Island, Fogarty says, “Forgive me for not joining the speculation. … All things in due time. Let’s at least pick our next president first!”

Incidentally, Fogarty reports he’ll be teaching two days a week this fall at Johnson & Wales University and also is waiting to hear about another “interesting opportunity.”

Speculation about the governor’s race here already runs rampant. On the Democratic side, General Treasurer Frank Caprio seems at least as likely to run as Cicilline.

Both the Caprio and Cicilline campaigns report raising over $300,000 in the first half of this year, with Caprio having an edge ($325,775 to $318,296).

Interestingly, Caprio fundraiser Amy Gabarra, 29, used to work for Cicilline’s organization.

She joined Caprio’s campaign, which pays her $2,500 a month, on Jan. 1. Her other clients include Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Democratic kingmaker Mark Weiner, who uses her on both political and charitable activities.

Caprio says she’s done a “wonderful” job for him. “Her work speaks for itself.”

Speaking for himself, Caprio declines to say he’s running for governor but asserts that compiling a “strong record” as treasurer is a requirement for whatever office he seeks.

Myself, I seriously doubt he’d be raising money at breakneck speed to run for treasurer again.

Other Democratic gubernatorial prospects include Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts, the term-limited Attorney General Patrick Lynch, and former U.S. Rep. Bob Weygand, now an official at the University of Rhode Island.

Republican possibles include former U.S. Sen. Linc Chafee, former Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian.

I was less surprised to find Smiley signing up with Cicilline than to realize he was staying on in Rhode Island at all.

Smiley is a political pro who grew up in Chicago and has worked on campaigns in several states, and the indication last fall was that when the gubernatorial election here was over he’d be off to somewhere else.

So what happened? He said last week, “I met someone on the campaign, a Rhode Islander, and so I’ve moved in with him and started a life here and am calling Providence home, making a career based here.”

The “someone” is Jim DeRentis, 45, chief business officer for BankRI, who was on Fogarty’s finance committee.

Smiley looks like a corporate executive himself. Campaign workers often dress, how shall I say?, um, informally. Smiley is always in a suit. He says it’s partly because his clients are or want to be public officials, and he’s representing them. But also, although he’s all of 28 now, he was very young in his early campaigns and was sitting across the table from people twice his age, and he wanted to be taken seriously.

Smiley anticipates spending 60 percent of his time working for Cicilline. He hopes to sign up several congressional candidates — he specifically mentioned Illinois — as well.

If Cicilline does run for governor, history offers an uncertain guide. Providence Mayor Joe Paolino got clobbered in the 1990 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Republican Mayor Buddy Cianci got clobbered in the 1980 gubernatorial election. Former Democratic Mayor Joe Doorley got clobbered running for governor as an independent in 1978.

The last Providence mayor to win for governor was Democrat Dennis Roberts in 1950.

Mayors do much they can brag about, but they also can be vulnerable to such charges as, “TAX LOVER!” (Yes, Cicilline has raised taxes, which is certainly more responsible than allowing the city to build up huge deficits and go bankrupt.)

He says he’d run on his record. “I’m very proud of the work that we’ve done.”

Cicilline prides himself on leading an honest government that has brought new investment to the city, improved bond ratings, reduced crime, and expanded arts and cultural activities.

He also suggests voters understand that, when it comes to finding money for schools, mayors are left to deal with “the consequences of failed leadership at the state level.”

There are a lot of other challenges a governor faces that Cicilline, a former state rep, finds intriguing, such as developing more jobs and improving transportation systems.

But he also says he doesn’t want to allow the idea of running for governor to distract him from finishing his work in Providence.

In addition to Cicilline’s record and ideas, Smiley admires his skills and energy as a stump campaigner.

He says he’s also pleased about working with a mayor who has national political appeal in the gay community and he looks forward to building up Cicilline’s network.

The election may be more than three years off, but you can easily busy yourself in coming months going to fundraisers for the various candidates.

I intend to drop by several myself to check on the guests, the chatter, and, yes, the food, and I’ll be getting back to you.

M. Charles Bakst is The Journal’s political columnist.

mbakst@projo.com