WARWICK — If a storm similar to the Hurricane of 1938 were to strike Rhode Island this year, it would probably cause property damages and business losses topping $3.8 billion.

About 10,000 Rhode Island families would be forced out of their homes and in need of shelter. It would take a week for the state’s hospitals to return to just 40 percent of their capacities. And the state would have to deal with some 8 million tons of debris from smashed buildings and fallen trees.

That was the scenario spelled out Thursday to some 200 state and local emergency responders by Ivy Frances, of the New England office of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Frances said the dire scenario was based on a FEMA program that combines science, engineering and mathematical modeling to estimate potential losses of life and property that would result from certain environmental disasters. FEMA offers the program to local planners.

She was one of several speakers at the annual hurricane conference sponsored by the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency. Representatives of 37 of the state’s cities and towns were there, along with key personnel from state and federal agencies. An array of emergency-response vehicles, boats and generators was on display outside the Crowne Plaza Hotel.

Several themes emerged from the experts: While devastating hurricanes are rare in New England, they have happened and will happen again. While federal, state and local officials have undertaken extensive preparations, much of the public has done nothing to prepare. And cleaning up after any major storm will involve enormous costs.

Marty Bahamonde, a FEMA policy expert credited with being the first FEMA staffer into New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina, praised the local responders for their big turnout. He said he recently attended a similar conference in the South that had less participation.

FEMA finally just ended its housing-assistance program for Katrina victims, at a cost of $25 billion, he said. He advised: “If a hurricane hits Rhode Island directly, I guarantee you’ll have a housing program that lasts more than a year.”

He said people must do more to prepare. Talk to your insurance agency now about coverage, rather than wait in lines after the storm. Set aside food, water and medicines to last at least a week. Expect to have no electricity for at least a week. Set up phone lists for relatives.

Frances said officials should develop a plan for hurricane recovery efforts and figure out who will be boss. That process took months in Louisiana after Katrina, she said.

Local officials should start talking about how they want to redevelop after a bad storm. What do they want their community to look like?

Bruce McFarlane, a consultant, and Kate McCarthy-Barnett, of the Rhode Island Health Department, said Rhode Island is now planning how to help the 20 percent or so of its population suffering from chronic illnesses or disabilities following a disaster.

Plans must be made for medicines, oxygen, medical equipment and shelters for thousands of people, McCarthy-Barnett said. Work is continuing this summer.

plord@projo.com