State Rep. John J. Loughlin II, R-Tiverton, the House minority whip, plans to challenge Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy next year.

The Providence Journal / Connie Grosch

I headed to Davol Square on Tuesday to hear state Rep. Elizabeth M. “Betsy” Dennigan, D-East Providence, announce that she will be challenging U.S. Rep. James R. Langevin in a Democratic primary next year. And as I was picking my way through the crowd, past the banners, balloons and a three-piece band, I bumped into a congressional candidate shaking hands.

Only it wasn’t Dennigan. Or even a Democrat.

It was state Rep. John J. Loughlin II, R-Tiverton, the House minority whip who plans to challenge Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy next year.

Was he there to launch a Republicans-for-Betsy organization? No, he said.

Loughlin, who’s supporting Republican Mark Zaccaria in the race for Langevin’s seat, noted that Dennigan is a House colleague. He said he was taking notes on the logistics and stagecraft of announcing a congressional candidacy.

“And I think there are a lot of talented folks in the House that could serve our country well in Congress,” the former stand-up comedian deadpanned, referring to himself.

Loughlin, 50, is serving his fifth year in the General Assembly. He owns Media-Rite, a company that produces TV ads and corporate videos. And he is a helicopter pilot who retired from the Army Reserve as a lieutenant colonel.

So what makes him think he can beat Kennedy — a member of one of America’s best-known political families, a Democrat in one of the bluest states, a 14-year incumbent with a vast fundraising network who, in the most recent reports, had $340,000 in his campaign account while Loughlin had $46,000?

“I think for the first time I represent a legitimate challenge,” Loughlin said. “The voters have not had a choice before, really, and I hope to give them that choice.”

In 2008, Kennedy received 68.6 percent of the vote, crushing Republican Jonathan P. Scott, with 24.3 percent, and independent Kenneth A. Capalbo, with 7.1 percent.

“We realize we are an underdog and it’s going to be a hard fight,” Loughlin said. “Having said that, I was a helicopter pilot, not a kamikaze pilot. I wouldn’t take this on if I didn’t think I could win it.”

Why is it not a suicide mission?

“You have to look at the dynamics of the race,” Loughlin said. “You have to look at the mood of Rhode Islanders right now. I think Rhode Islanders have just had it with the spending — on the local level, on the state level and on the federal level. I think what’s going on in the federal government in terms of the spending terrifies people.”

David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for The Cook Political Report, doubts Loughlin will win.

“I’m really doubtful that Republicans can raise the money” to compete with Kennedy, Wasserman said. “But even if they did, voters’ opinions on Kennedy are pretty well established, and there are more that love him than hate him.”

Wasserman said Loughlin’s biggest hurdle is not money — it’s the heavily Democratic nature of a district in one of the country’s bluest states. He said that of the 39 cities and towns in Rhode Island, only Scituate voted for Republican Sen. John McCain over President Obama, and Scituate is not in Kennedy’s district.

“I see candidates every year that underestimate the partisan nature of their districts, especially in this age where everything from cable news to congressional districts are polarized,” Wasserman said.

While he can’t profess to have followed Loughlin’s career in the General Assembly, Wasserman said, “My sense is the voter forgiveness threshold for Patrick Kennedy in this district exceeds that for any other member of Congress anywhere.”

Kennedy returned to Congress in July after spending 28 days at a Maryland addiction treatment center. In 2006, he entered a Minnesota addiction treatment center after crashing his car into a Capitol Hill security barrier at 3 a.m. In 2000, he was accused of shoving an airport security guard in Los Angeles and trashing a yacht. He has acknowledged struggling with alcoholism, drug dependence and bipolar disorder, and has become a public face for recovery from addiction.

“For voters, one factor here is Patrick Kennedy, though reckless in some of his actions, has hurt himself rather than others,” Wasserman said. “Voters perceive him to be a passionate voice for the Democratic position on most issues and look past his foibles.”

When asked whether he would talk about Kennedy’s “foibles” during the campaign, Loughlin said, “I think the voters are completely aware of the congressman’s admitted issues, and that’s really up to the voters to make a decision about whether or not that should have a bearing on who they have representing them in Congress.”

Loughlin said, “I’m very concerned about his addiction. It’s his addiction to spending.”

Loughlin compared the federal stimulus spending to riding his 1979 Motobecane bike from his house downhill to South Shore Beach. “You are going and going and it seems like you can accomplish anything,” he said. “When you get down to the beach, you get the harsh reality of realizing you’ve got to pay all that money back — you’ve got to pedal all of that inertia back up the hill. That’s exactly what we are doing in the country today.” And Kennedy, he said, “has been complicit in all of this.”

But didn’t Republican George W. Bush just have eight years to ride that bike and control spending?

Loughlin said Bush “got the part about lowering taxes, but he didn’t get the part about cutting spending at the same time. And had he done that, I think we would not be, necessarily, in the mess that we are in right now.” He called for lowering the marginal tax rates to spur economic growth, saying that both Kennedy’s uncle, former President John F. Kennedy, and former President Ronald Reagan took such steps.

Loughlin has already filed the paperwork necessary to run for Congress. But he doesn’t plan to make an official announcement until winter.

He realizes he won’t be able to raise more money than Kennedy. But he said $1 million would allow him to run an effective campaign in a media market as small as Rhode Island’s.

He realizes this is a blue state. But he noted it has had a Republican governor for 20 of the last 24 years, saying, “Rhode Islanders are smart enough to look at individuals and not, necessarily, party labels.”

He realizes that while he was a part-time comedian in the 1980s, performing at Periwinkles and co-hosting at Chan’s, he still wouldn’t be the best comic in Congress because Minnesota Sen. Al Franken had such a successful career on Saturday Night Live. But he noted he would be in the House while Franken is in the Senate.

“The Senate,” he said, “is an easier room.”

efitzpat@projo.com