After a September public-opinion survey by Brown University found his job approval rating had plunged since last January from 59 percent to 44 percent, Carcieri suggested the numbers were a reflection of voter concern “about our financial status.’’

He said people seeing teachers on strike, unions lobbing preemptive strikes against his vow to cut the state work force by 1,000, and headline after headline about the people affected by the legislature’s adoption of his proposals to lop thousands off the state’s child-care rolls leave people “feeling as though the state isn’t running itself well because of the budget.’’

Meanwhile, labor laws are expected to complicate the governor’s staff reduction plans.

Carcieri will have no problem eliminating 115 contract employees, who have no union protections. But laying off 414 state employees would trigger seniority provisions outlined in workers’ contracts.

The executive branch can move to eliminate specific jobs, but the employees in those jobs generally have the right to move to vacant positions, or new jobs elsewhere in state government by “bumping” other workers from their jobs.

The legal challenges were illustrated when former Governor Sundlun issued layoff notices to more than 500 employees in 1992, trying to avert a huge deficit. Two months after notices went out, more than half of the targeted group still had jobs.

Governor Carcieri’s office acknowledges challenges, but Stern said that bumping rules have been relaxed since the early 1990s. Employees generally are allowed only three “bumps,” he said.

Labor unions have criticized the governor’s plan to cut 1,000 jobs since it was first announced last June for ignoring the additional cost to the state in expected social welfare costs.

The layoffs could result in $7.5 million in new costs to taxpayers for the unemployment and health-care benefits for displaced workers, according to Dan Majcher, supervisor of fiscal services for the Department of Administration.

“This number will vary based on many factors and again is a worst case estimate and assumes everyone would be eligible for full benefits,” he said this morning in an e-mail to The Journal.

Stern acknowledged Friday that the governor may be using a “conservative” estimate for the projected 2008-09 budget deficit. While his Budget Officer Rosemary Gallogly puts the projection at $211.3 million, the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council estimated the deficit at $306.5 million in June.

Since then, Gallogly said, assumptions have changed, caseload projections have dropped and lawmakers, in an unprecedented move, placed a virtual freeze on local school aid this year.

As an example, the outdated deficit-projection assumed new state employee contracts would provide the workers with a 2-percent across-the-board raise next year, according to Gallogly. Knocking that one assumption out cut the projected deficit by $26.8 million. Freezing school aid this year lowered the starting point for next year by another $19 million. And so on.